广州市旅行社行业市场绩效探析

近年来，广州市旅行社业发展很不稳定，如何提升市场绩效是广州市旅行社业亟待解决的问题。文章主要采用2001--2006年广州市旅游统计年鉴上的数据，通过对照全国、上海旅行社业的营业收入、旅行社数量和总接待人数3个指标，分析了广州市旅行社业市场绩效现状。并从经济效益、社会效益方面的指标定量分析及通过案例的定性分析了广州市旅行社业的市场绩效，分析结果显示广州市旅行社业在利润率、市场集中度、员工素质等方面影响着市场绩效。提出了“内外结合”、降低市场集中度、提高员工素质和社会福利的解决措施。     

论依法执政的逻辑结构

依法执政这一命题的本体性追问包括但不限于为什么执政、谁来执政、靠什么执政、如何执政、执的是什么政、不依法执政怎么办等问题.相应地,依法执政的逻辑结构包括但不限于依法执政的本质、主体、依据、途径、对象、目的等因素.明确依法执政的逻辑结构是解决依法执政首要的和关键的一步.否则,极有可能发生将背离依法执政的目标和方法视为依法执政基本诉求的危险.     

A Remark on the Alternative Expectation Formula

Students in their first course in probability will often see the expectation formula for nonnegative continuous random variables in terms of the survival function. The traditional approach for deriving this formula (using double integrals) is well-received by students. Some students tend to approach this using integration by parts, but often get stuck. Most standard textbooks do not elaborate on this alternative approach. We present a rigorous derivation here. We hope that students and instructors of the first course in probability will find this short note helpful.     

我国农户兼业经营实证分析

农村改革后,农户兼业成为普遍现象,兼业既解决了农村剩余劳动力问题,又提高了农民收入.但兼业的程度又受文化、年龄、性别、地域的制约.兼业的不平衡性使农户收入产生了差距,同时又给粮食生产带来影响.因此要对农户兼业发展予以控制引导,使之朝着有利于社会可持续发展的方向运行.     

关汉卿剧作复合词研究

关汉卿杂剧音节复合词的构词方式有六种：联合型、偏正型、补充型、动宾型、主谓型和紧缩型。其主要的构词方式已与现代汉语基本相同；联合型与偏正型最能产；紧缩型是近代汉语出现的构词方式。     

世代更替与范式转换──近十年马华文学发展考察

近十年是马来西亚华文文学史上创作最丰硕的十年，期间文学变迁非常剧烈。这种嬗变主要体现在文坛世代更替与文学范式转换两个方面。从９０年代开始，新世代作家逐渐取代中坚一代作家成为马华文坛的主导力量。与此同时，当代马华文学也进入了范式转换的新时期，这主要表现在散文、诗歌、小说、文学批评的范式转变上。     

关于挖掘青海内部投资潜力的思考

资产由所有者权益和债务组成，投资是社会资产的重要功能。作者认为挖掘青海内部投资潜力的途径有三：一是尽可能多地从资产存量中寻找能投入经营领域的资本金；二是适当扩大债务规模；三是努力提高投资回报率。     

论在依法治国实践中律师的任务和使命

依法治国的主体是人民,中国法治的前景和进程在很大程度上取决于人民依法治国的要求在多大程度上得到实现.人民作为治国主体,所享有的权力及权利能够得到切实有效的保障,是中国律师在内的各种社会中介力量的现实任务,由此而推动依法治国,建设社会主义法治国家的进程是中国律师的跨世纪历史使命.     

论汉末清议思潮与社会转型

清议思潮出现在东汉中后期。外戚和宦官轮流把持朝廷大权,以太学生为主的后备官吏集团发起了针砭时政、抨击宦官专权和评议人物的政治活动。最终遭到当局以党锢的方式从肉体加以打击,从思想意识上加以禁止。但清议从未停止,一直持续到汉末。清议是东汉中后期自下而上的一场统治阶级内部的自救活动,它改变了世人的传统观念、道德意识和价值取向,加速了汉末社会的转型。     

A comparison of subgroup identification methods in clinical drug development: Simulation study and regulatory considerations

With advancement of technologies such as genomic sequencing, predictive biomarkers have become a useful tool for the development of personalized medicine. Predictive biomarkers can be used to select subsets of patients, which are most likely to benefit from a treatment. A number of approaches for subgroup identification were proposed over the last years. Although overviews of subgroup identification methods are available, systematic comparisons of their performance in simulation studies are rare. Interaction trees (IT), model‐based recursive partitioning, subgroup identification based on differential effect, simultaneous threshold interaction modeling algorithm (STIMA), and adaptive refinement by directed peeling were proposed for subgroup identification. We compared these methods in a simulation study using a structured approach. In order to identify a target population for subsequent trials, a selection of the identified subgroups is needed. Therefore, we propose a subgroup criterion leading to a target subgroup consisting of the identified subgroups with an estimated treatment difference no less than a pre‐specified threshold. In our simulation study, we evaluated these methods by considering measures for binary classification, like sensitivity and specificity. In settings with large effects or huge sample sizes, most methods perform well. For more realistic settings in drug development involving data from a single trial only, however, none of the methods seems suitable for selecting a target population. Using the subgroup criterion as alternative to the proposed pruning procedures, STIMA and IT can improve their performance in some settings. The methods and the subgroup criterion are illustrated by an application in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.