Convergence rates of change-point estimators and tail probabilities of the first-passage-time process

In the classical setting of the change-point problem, the maximum-likelihood estimator and the traditional confidence region for the change-point parameter are considered. It is shown that the probability of the correct decision, the coverage probability and the expected size of the confidence set converge exponentially fast as the sample size increases to infinity. For this purpose, the tail probabilities of the first passage times are studied. General inequalities are established, and exact asymptotics are obtained for the case of Bernoulli distributions. A closed asymptotic form for the expected size of the confidence set is derived for this case via the conditional distribution of the first passage times.     

Review of Radon and Lung Cancer Risk

Radon, a long-established cause of lung cancer in uranium and other underground miners, has recently emerged as a potentially important cause of lung cancer in the general population. The evidence for widespread exposure of the population to radon and the well-documented excess of lung cancer among underground miners exposed to radon decay products have raised concern that exposure to radon progeny might also be a cause of lung cancer in the general population. To date, epidemiological data on the lung cancer risk associated with environmental exposure to radon have been limited. Consequently, the lung cancer hazard posed by radon exposure in indoor air has been addressed primarily through risk estimation procedures. The quantitative risks of lung cancer have been estimated using exposure-response relations derived from the epidemiological investigations of uranium and other underground miners. We review five of the more informative studies of miners and recent risk projection models for excess lung cancer associated with radon. The principal models differ substantially in their underlying assumptions and consequently in the resulting risk projections. The resulting diversity illustrates the substantial uncertainty that remains concerning the most appropriate model of the temporal pattern of radon-related lung cancer. Animal experiments, further follow-up of the miner cohorts, and well-designed epidemiological studies of indoor exposure should reduce this uncertainty.     

我国航空运输市场现状、问题及对策

通过分析我国航空运输业当前所处的国际国内环境,结合我国空运业的发展现状,采用SWOT分析法探讨了我国航空运输企业参与国际竞争的优势与劣势、机遇与威胁,分别从政府、民航业、航空公司及其资本结构的角度,提出增强我国航空运输企业国际竞争力的若干对策。     

火电站直接空冷系统及其空冷器的热力计算

本文叙述了电站汽轮机排汽在空冷凝汽器中直接对空气放热而冷凝的直接空冷系统,并着重研究了空冷凝汽器的原理、结构布置及其热力计算方法。     

科技文化:理工科校园文化的主流

如果通过校园文化建设培养理工科学生能力的重要途径,关键在于让科技文化成为校园文化的主流。只有充分发挥科技成果的鞭策和激励作用和专业教师在学生科研中的指导作用;充分利用政策、制度和载体保证校园科技文化氛围的营造;并以多途径、多层面的科普、科研活动作为理工科校园文化的首位建设内容;科技文化主流与人文文化的兼容互动;才能创造孕育创新人才的摇篮。     

不外接传感器的微电脑节油器

本文提出微电脑节油器可不外接专用传感器,以节气门位置开关拾取负荷信号,以点火脉冲求得转速信息,以此作为微电脑的输入,利用最佳的数学控制模型,自动选择辅助进气量,实现对发动机不同工况下的最佳空燃比的自动控制,同样可以达到节约燃料,减少有害排放物的目的.     

应用元认知理论培养学生反思能力

自然以其四大要素“气、火、水、土”的象征喻意渗透在三部女性作家的代表作品的字里行间 ,喻示着男女主人公的爱情归宿 ,演绎着悲欢离合的爱情经典     

论长江沿岸高速铁路网、公路网布局对长江航运的影响

分析长江沿岸高速铁路网、公路网布局对长江航运近期和远期的影响,提出长江流域各运输方式分工协作,实现客运高速化、货运物流化的设想。     

从“4·15”空难事故透视国际空难的赔偿问题

国际空难事故,由于涉及到国家之间的法律冲突,空难赔偿就成为一个非常复杂的问题。国际条约中所确立的航空保险以及航空侵权的相关制度,为国际空难的赔偿问题确立了依据。     

浅谈参加四级俄语考试考生的阅读能力培养

考核学生阅读理解获取信息的能力 ,是四级考试的重要题型 ,掌握方法和技巧是答题的关键。提高阅读速度 ,摆正阅读速度和理解的关系 ,同时要利用所掌握的构词法及语法知识。抓住中心内容 ,从词至意 ,再由意至句 ,最后抓住文脉 ,以便得到令人满意的效果