Reproducible Risk Assessment

Reproducible research is a concept that has emerged in data and computationally intensive sciences in which the code used to conduct all analyses, including generation of publication quality figures, is directly available, and preferably in open source manner. This perspective outlines the processes and attributes, and illustrates the execution of reproducible research via a simple exposure assessment of air pollutants in metropolitan Philadelphia.     

中国民航客运机票定价策略研究

通过分析目前中国民航客运市场的现状 ,针对统一限价政策存在的许多问题和中国加入WTO形势下的新问题 ,对价格体系的科学性和合理性进行探讨 ,并借鉴国外航空公司收益管理的先进理论与方法 ,提出建立适合中国民航客运的多级票价策略     

离心式选粉机及其厂房的减振研究

利用振动分析、减振理论对离心式选粉机及其厂房系统进行主要振动方向的力学模型简化、建立运动微分方程、求出固有频率、稳态解及幅频响应，得出适宜工作区域，为离心式选粉机及其基础设计提供减振理论依据。     

推动"一带一路"沿线国家贸易和投资自由化便利化研究——新冠疫情背景下的挑战与应对

新冠疫情全球大流行带来生命威胁的同时,对全球贸易和投资造成的冲击和影响亦不容小觑。我国推动与"一带一路"沿线国家贸易和投资自由化便利化建设遭遇了外部环境收紧和疫情叠加的双重约束。作为"一带一路"倡议的主导者,如何审视新冠疫情冲击下与沿线国家的贸易和投资自由化便利化成为当前研究的重要内容。文章从新冠疫情全球大流行的现实背景出发,分析了推动"一带一路"沿线国家贸易和投资自由化便利化面临的新挑战,在立足于贸易和投资自由化便利化的基本判定之上进一步提出应对之策。研究认为,疫情直接冲击了全球供应链、价值链和产业链,全球经贸活动受限影响了"一带一路"贸易和投资自由化便利化的进度和节奏,但是相关基本判定不会因外部环境的变化而产生动摇。因此,推动"一带一路"沿线国家贸易和投资自由化便利化,在把握多元目标的逻辑自洽性和一致性基础上,还需要意识到实施过程的长期性、反复性、复杂性和多样性,以平常心对待主客观认识的变化和修正。基于上述重要判定,文章提出以下政策建议:第一,强化区域经济一体化的对接,在现有的规则和多边贸易协定基础上,融合和对接有助于"一带一路"贸易和投资自由化便利化的规则和措施。第二,在区域经济一体化"整体对接"情况下,充分利用"个体"合作的重要性和突破作用。可考虑通过双边自贸协定谈判,强化中国与自贸协定国的经贸关系,以"一带一路"倡议作为积极开拓双边市场的重要动力,利用示范性合作和收获性成果撬动区域的贸易和投资自由化便利化。第三,借助已有的价值链体系优势和制造业产能优势,从地区和产业维度对沿线国家制定差异化和有针对性的区域价值链布局策略。建议以"一带一路"倡议为契机强化以价值链构建为核心的贸易和投资平台,构造以中国制造为核心的价值链体系,打造"区域价值链合作范本"。第四,抓住疫情期间数字经济的快速发展机遇,挖掘疫情后信息网络、数字经济、跨境电子商务以及公共卫生领域的产业合作新空间。     

超视距空战中的多无人机武器目标分配方法

武器目标分配问题是多无人机超视距空战中的关键决策问题之一。本文考虑超视距空战的强对抗、不确定等特点给武器目标分配问题带来的新挑战，基于纳什均衡博弈思想，将超视距空战中的多无人机武器目标分配问题建模为双矩阵博弈模型，其中，基于证据理论设计多级信息融合方法计算多个无人机对抗多个目标时的总攻击有效性。在此基础上，基于纳什均衡中策略被选择的概率与遗憾值之间的关系以及超视距空战需求，将双矩阵博弈模型转换为混合整数规划模型进行求解，并通过典型案例、数值实验、仿真实验对本文方法的计算过程和有效性进行分析。结果表明，本文方法能够有效给出超视距空战中的多无人机武器目标分配方案。     

天然气水合物在喷雾装置中的制备

采用雾流强化实验装置对天然气水合物的合成进行实验研究,发现该方法能增加气-水接触面积、强化传热传质以及加速水合物生成.实验数据验证了反应压力与系统过冷度是水合物快速形成的重要影响因素.当反应温度一定时,初始压力越大,反应压降速率越大;过冷度越大,对应的压降速率越大.     

Psychophysiological coherence training to moderate air traffic controllers’ fatigue on rotating roster

The nature of the current rotating roster, providing 24-h air traffic services over five irregular shifts, leads to accumulated fatigue which impairs air traffic controllers’ cognitive function and task performance. It is imperative to develop an effective fatigue risk management system to improve aviation safety based upon scientific approaches. Two empirical studies were conducted to address this issue. Study 1 investigated the mixed effect of circadian rhythm disorders and resource depletion on controllers’ accumulated fatigue. Then, study 2 proposed a potential biofeedback solution of quick coherence technique which can mitigate air traffic controllers’ (ATCOs’) fatigue while on controller working position and improve ATCOs’ mental/physical health. The current two-studies demonstrated a scientific approach to fatigue analysis and fatigue risk mitigation in the air traffic services domain. This research offers insights into the fluctuation of ATCO fatigue levels and the influence of a numbers of factors related to circadian rhythm and resource depletion impact on fatigue levels on study 1; and provides psychophysiological coherence training to increase ATCOs’ fatigue resilience to mitigate negative impacts of fatigue on study 2. Based on these two studies, the authors recommended that an extra short break for air traffic controllers to permit practicing the quick coherence breathing technique for 5 min at the sixth working hour could substantially recharge cognitive resources and increase fatigue resilience. Application: Present studies highlight an effective fatigue intervention based on objective biofeedback to moderate controllers’ accumulated fatigue as a result of rotating shift work. Accordingly, air navigation services providers and regulators can develop fatigue risk management systems based on scientific approaches to improve aviation safety and air traffic controller's wellbeing.     

Multilevel causal attributions on transboundary risk: Effects on attributions of responsibility,psychological distance,and policy support

This study used two randomized experiments in a prospective design (Study 1 N = 297, Study 2 N = 296) to examine how multilevel causal attribution dimensions (internal vs. external to an individual or a country) shape domestic and foreign policy support to counter transboundary risk. Results from Study 1 and 2 showed that external-country (vs. internal-country) causal attribution reduced perceptions of internal-country attributions of responsibility, which had a cross-lagged effect on support for domestic-industry policies to mitigate the risk. In contrast, perceptions of external-country attributions of responsibility increased support for foreign policies in a 2-week follow up. This study offers theoretical insights into the demarcation of multilevel causal attribution dimensions in studying media framing effects. It also highlights some important causal mechanisms of how media frames shape public support for policies aimed at transboundary risk mitigation.     

后多哈时代世界贸易法发展的可能路径及我国对策

随着多哈回合谈判的失败，在可预见的将来，要重新创建一个广泛承诺的多边谈判议程已不太可能。但在多边贸易协议框架内，仍有一些领域存在达成共识的可能和共同努力的方向；在区域贸易协定中，仍有继续扩展和深化的空间，并存在一些新的努力方向。我国应把握当前世界贸易法发展趋势，合理自我定位，积极参与规则谈判，正确处理多边与区域的关系。     

使用EMME／2的经验

ＥＭＭＥ／２软件在城市交通研究方面是较全面的，作用也是明显的，也可以为宏观决策和微观工程作分析研究，值得广泛应用，但它也有不足之处，如它与ＧＩＳ难以接口，ＥＭＭＥ／２所画的图上没有地形，河流和必要的标志物，希望在不久的将来能解决这些问题，使其用途更加广泛。