语言的“陌生化”与广告词创作

“陌生化”作为一种语言技巧已成为古今中外的通例。近年来，越来越多的广告创作者使用知法破法”的语言“陌生化”技巧，有意识地采用打破一般语法构词规则的方法，使广告词更富有感染力，更加引人注意。对此，不能简单地用＂文理不通＂来力。以批评。“陌生化”方法的产生有其客观的依据，但对其应用有一定的限定。     

Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

Ranking Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Scenarios: The Italian Case

A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city.     

高校内部审计风险原因及对策研究

内部审计机构的相对独立性、审计人员业务能力的局限性、审计方法及审计手段的落后状况等因素决定了内部审计风险的客观存在,目前高校办学和业务活动出现了一些新的特点,高校的内部审计工作不仅同样也存在风险,且较之以前有加大的趋势。本文论述了高校内部审计风险产生原因并相应提出了防范和控制风险的措施。     

异化及其扬弃——当前思想政治教育面临的困境与专业社会工作的启示

思想政治教育的异化使教育已经不是一种心力合一的过程,受教育者已经不能从中学到东西.产生这种异化的原因是:思想政治教育本质的改变,社会价值与个人价值相分离,单向强制灌输,教育内容上的滞后.要走出思想政治教育的困境,从专业社会工作的视角出发,对价值取向、育人关系、育人手段、工作者角色等几方面进行思考.     

青少年疏离感的特点及其与家庭功能的关系

通过对875名初一至高二学生的问卷调查,探讨了青少年疏离感发展的特点及其与家庭功能的关系。结果发现：（1）青少年的环境疏离感最高,其次是社会疏离感,人际疏离感最低。（2）高中生疏离感显著高于初中生,在每一年龄段内,疏离感随年级升高而增强;但青少年疏离感性别差异不显著。（3）家庭功能中的角色、沟通、情感反应和情感介入可以显著正向预测青少年的疏离感,问题解决和行为控制对青少年疏离感的预测不显著。     

试析技术异化的劳动异化根源

探讨现代技术异化的根源,不能只从技术层面去寻找.技术是人类生存实践的产物,技术形态和应用后果都是社会建构的,技术异化的根源也在于社会应用技术的主导模式.通过对劳动异化和技术异化的分析,认为技术异化是以资本主义生产方式和机器技术的大规模应用为前提的,根本的原因则是资本主义生产方式占据主导地位的情况下劳动异化了.因而,技术作为资本增值的内在手段,与劳动和自然对立,技术异化是劳动异化的必然表现.马克思的劳动异化思想,对我们深入理解技术异化的根源及其后果,具有极其重要的指导意义.     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

银行个人住房抵押贷款预警系统构想

在分析银行住房抵押贷款的各种风险因素的基础之上，提出模糊预警模型，给出预警结果。