A Diversity Index for Model Space Selection in the Estimation of Benchmark and Infectious Doses via Model Averaging

In chemical and microbial risk assessments, risk assessors fit dose‐response models to high‐dose data and extrapolate downward to risk levels in the range of 1–10%. Although multiple dose‐response models may be able to fit the data adequately in the experimental range, the estimated effective dose (ED) corresponding to an extremely small risk can be substantially different from model to model. In this respect, model averaging (MA) provides more robustness than a single dose‐response model in the point and interval estimation of an ED. In MA, accounting for both data uncertainty and model uncertainty is crucial, but addressing model uncertainty is not achieved simply by increasing the number of models in a model space. A plausible set of models for MA can be characterized by goodness of fit and diversity surrounding the truth. We propose a diversity index (DI) to balance between these two characteristics in model space selection. It addresses a collective property of a model space rather than individual performance of each model. Tuning parameters in the DI control the size of the model space for MA.     

联盟信任变迁与美韩联盟转型

联盟信任与联盟困境之间存在密切关系。在双边不对称联盟中,联盟困境的"抛弃"与"牵连"对联盟信任的作用更为强烈,进而成为推动联盟转型的重要变量。在美韩联盟发展过程中,其联盟信任不断变迁。联盟初期,由战火锤炼铸就的美韩双向情绪性信任,中经"尼克松冲击"转变为情绪性—工具性信任,后冷战时代历经双方的战略调整与实力变迁影响,转为双向工具性信任。受联盟信任变迁的影响,美韩联盟也实现了由军事联盟向战略性联盟的转变,这是联盟信任下降与共有利益拓展的共同结果。     

Complementary person-supervisor fit: An investigation of supplies-values (S-V) fit,leader-member exchange (LMX) and work outcomes

By applying the supplies-values (S-V) fit approach from the complementary person-environment (P-E) fit literature to the leader-employee perspective, and drawing upon social exchange theory, we examine how fulfillment of different work values is related to Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) and work outcomes. First, polynomial regression analyses combined with response surface analysis of data collected at two time points (N = 316) showed that LMX (Time 2) was higher the more the leader fulfills the employee's work values (Time 1). Second, LMX (Time 2) was higher when leader supplies (Time 1) and employee work values (Time 1) were both high than when both were low. Third, analyses of data from a sub-sample of matched leader-employee dyads (N = 140), showed that LMX (Time 2) played a mediating role on the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and work outcomes (Time 2). Specifically, we found eight out of 10 relationships between S-V fit (Time 1) and leader-rated task performance and OCB (Time 2) to be fully mediated by LMX (Time 2). LMX (Time 2) partially mediated the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and job satisfaction (Time 2) as only two out of five relationships were fully mediated.     

Likelihood ratio tests for multivariate normality

This paper presents some powerful omnibus tests for multivariate normality based on the likelihood ratio and the characterizations of the multivariate normal distribution. The power of the proposed tests is studied against various alternatives via Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation studies show our tests compare well with other powerful tests including multivariate versions of the Shapiro–Wilk test and the Anderson–Darling test.     

人—工作匹配对员工工作幸福感的作用机制研究

基于社会交换理论,通过对209名员工2个时点的配对问卷调查,探讨了人—工作匹配和工作幸福感的关系及其作用机制,尤其是工作卷入的中介作用和工作技能的调节作用。结果发现:人—工作匹配对工作幸福感具有显著的正向作用;工作卷入在人—工作匹配和工作幸福感之间起部分中介作用;工作技能在人—工作匹配和工作卷入之间起调节作用,即工作技能水平越高,人—工作匹配对工作卷入的正向影响越强。     

Client Personality,Working Alliance and Outcome

Abstract

The relationship of the five-factor model of personality to working alliance, symptoms and well-being was examined in a diverse community mental health sample (N = 103). Agreeableness, openness, extraversion and conscientiousness were associated with alliance. Neuroticism was strongly associated with symptoms, and negatively associated with well-being. Extraversion was moderately associated with well-being. Personality is deserving of further study as a potentially important influence on therapy process and outcome. Part of the much-replicated association of alliance with outcome may be accounted for by personality. Implications for social work practice and research are discussed.     

A new goodness of fit test for the equality of multinomial cell probabilities versus trend alternatives

In this paper, a new test statistic is presented for testing the null hypothesis of equal multinomial cell probabilities versus various trend alternatives. Exact asymptotic critical values are obtained, The power of the test is compared with several other statistics considered by Choulakian et al (1995), The test is shown to have better power for certain trend alternatives.     

热贡鲁若中"玛泽"与藏族历史的渊源关系

文章从历史学、宗教学、民俗学等角度,将流行于黄南藏族自治州同仁县隆务河流域的六月会主体节目之一"玛泽"的文化内涵进行了新的探讨,并就"玛泽"节目的历史和宗教渊源关系,民俗形成过程,以及对军事、生产活动中的意义提出了自己的看法.     

一中华优秀传统文化与社会主义核心价值观的内在契合

对于社会主义文化强国建设而言,中华优秀传统文化、社会主义核心价值观是不可或缺的重要话语体系,是国家软实力的显著标志。中华优秀传统文化与社会主义核心价值观在逻辑运演与实践运行上体现出密不可分、水乳交融的内在契合。中华优秀传统文化是社会主义核心价值观的涵养之源,社会主义核心价值观是弘扬中华优秀传统文化的价值导引,中华优秀传统文化与社会主义核心价值观可以实现现实联动。只有寻求中华优秀传统文化与社会主义核心价值观的静态支撑、动态联缀,才能更好构筑"四个全面"战略布局的价值向度,强力推进中华民族伟大复兴中国梦的顺利实现。     

Asymptotic distribution of regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model

This study treats an asymptotic distribution for measures of predictive power for generalized linear models (GLMs). We focus on the regression correlation coefficient (RCC) that is one of the measures of predictive power. The RCC, proposed by Zheng and Agresti is a population value and a generalization of the population value for the coefficient of determination. Therefore, the RCC is easy to interpret and familiar. Recently, Takahashi and Kurosawa provided an explicit form of the RCC and proposed a new RCC estimator for a Poisson regression model. They also showed the validity of the new estimator compared with other estimators. This study discusses the new statistical properties of the RCC for the Poisson regression model. Furthermore, we show an asymptotic normality of the RCC estimator.