我国十二生肖文化探源

十二生肖是一种颇具内涵的文化现象，在我国已有悠久的历史。其特点是以十二种动物配十二地支，以人之生年定所属动物。我国远古的图腾崇拜是十二生肖的滥觞，而干支的创制与中华民族的多元一体则是十二生肖形成的基础.     

可持续旅游扶贫开发模式研究——社区参与乡村旅游

在对乡村旅游、旅游扶贫和社区参与旅游发展相关概念内涵及研究进展阐述的基础上,着重分析了贫困乡村社区参与旅游发展的必要性和主要障碍,提出社区参与乡村旅游的一些思路,即发挥政府的主导作用,通过政策调控保障社区参与的主体地位,通过科学合理的利益分配政策框架确立社区居民参与的激励机制,提高社区居民的相关旅游知识及进行相关能力培训,提高非政府组织在旅游发展中的作用等。     

构建我国高校知识产权教育体系

高校知识产权教育是近年来人们关注的热点。针对我国高校知识产权教育管理中存在的问题，从高校知识产权教育现状入手，借鉴日本知识产权教育管理经验，提出构建中国高校知识产权教育体系的观点，并就高校知识产权教育及教育体系问题进行了分析。     

《马端肃公诗集》刊刻、流传及价值初考

《马端肃公诗集》是明代中期著名政治家马文升的诗集，白寿彝先生在其主编的《回族人物志》中认为该诗集已经佚失。其实，《马端肃公诗集》自明代万历十八年（1590）刊刻后就一直在流传，并于20世纪初收藏在南京图书馆。笔者试对《马端肃公诗集》的刊刻、流传情况及价值作一考论。     

潘懋元：谈中国高等教育管理思想

随着高等教育研究的日益深入，高等教育领域内的问题也层出不穷，尤其是高等教育管理领域的问题，非常值得研究与思考。从高等教育管理学科体系来看，高等教育管理的研究面宽，研究内容多，可以分为宏观和微观两个层面；重视历史研究是高等教育管理研究的必然要求，只有对高等教育的历史背景和社会发展有全面的了解才能更加有的放矢地进行高等教育管理理论探讨，才能在历史和现实的背号下提出切实可行的高等教育管理的理念；高等教育管理研究的理论源自于高等教育管理研究的实践，并在具体的研究过程中不断予以修正、完善、发展和深化；要注意“全面适应”和“主动适应”两个核心管理理念的联系；应重视高等教育管理学的应用性，强调理论在实践中的可操作性。     

社会化改革后高校后勤运行模式的理性选择

高校后勤社会化改革是一个复杂的系统工程,需经历一个发展的过程.辩证地分析高校后勤现行运行模式的优缺点,探讨社会化改革后高校后勤运行模式选择的基本原则和理性选择的思路,提出高校深化后勤社会化改革的参考模式.     

Bootstrap Estimation of Benchmark Doses and Confidence Limits with Clustered Quantal Data

The benchmark dose (BMD) is an exposure level that would induce a small risk increase (BMR level) above the background. The BMD approach to deriving a reference dose for risk assessment of noncancer effects is advantageous in that the estimate of BMD is not restricted to experimental doses and utilizes most available dose-response information. To quantify statistical uncertainty of a BMD estimate, we often calculate and report its lower confidence limit (i.e., BMDL), and may even consider it as a more conservative alternative to BMD itself. Computation of BMDL may involve normal confidence limits to BMD in conjunction with the delta method. Therefore, factors, such as small sample size and nonlinearity in model parameters, can affect the performance of the delta method BMDL, and alternative methods are useful. In this article, we propose a bootstrap method to estimate BMDL utilizing a scheme that consists of a resampling of residuals after model fitting and a one-step formula for parameter estimation. We illustrate the method with clustered binary data from developmental toxicity experiments. Our analysis shows that with moderately elevated dose-response data, the distribution of BMD estimator tends to be left-skewed and bootstrap BMDL s are smaller than the delta method BMDL s on average, hence quantifying risk more conservatively. Statistically, the bootstrap BMDL quantifies the uncertainty of the true BMD more honestly than the delta method BMDL as its coverage probability is closer to the nominal level than that of delta method BMDL. We find that BMD and BMDL estimates are generally insensitive to model choices provided that the models fit the data comparably well near the region of BMD. Our analysis also suggests that, in the presence of a significant and moderately strong dose-response relationship, the developmental toxicity experiments under the standard protocol support dose-response assessment at 5% BMR for BMD and 95% confidence level for BMDL.     

Empirical Bayes estimation in finite population sampling under functional measurement error models

The paper considers simultaneous estimation of finite population means for several strata. A model-based approach is taken, where the covariates in the super-population model are subject to measurement errors. Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators of the strata means are developed and an asymptotic expression for the MSE of the EB estimators is provided. It is shown that the proposed EB estimators are “first order optimal” in the sense of Robbins [1956. An empirical Bayes approach to statistics. In: Proceedings of the Third Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, vol. 1, University of California Press, Berkeley, pp. 157–164], while the regular EB estimators which ignore the measurement error are not.     

现代化的扩散与乡村政治文化的变迁——以改革开放以来安徽和县浏塘村为例

文章遵循从基本理论到实证调查再到一般性结论的研究路径,从实证的角度去描述安徽一个普通村庄因现代化的扩散而导致的乡村政治文化的变迁,从而试图说明现代化的扩散对乡村政治文化变迁的影响。     

荷兰居民生活质量调查方法研究及对中国的启示

通过对荷兰居民生活质量调查方法的研究，旨在分析总结其值得借鉴之处，并在此基础上针对中国正在探索中的居民生活质量调查，提出构建中国居民生活质量调查体系应拓宽其调查信息来源、实现数据共享、积极提高回应率、培养高素质调查队伍以及定期发布调查报告。