词义不确定性面面观

语言的各个层面上均存在着不确定性.歧义与笼统、模糊和非典型各自描述词汇语义学所研究的不确定性,它们相关而相异,常常被人们混淆而误用.因此,有必要对这些特性进行仔细观察和重新定义,并分析其成因,使之范围明确,各司其职,有利于进一步开展研究.     

Relationships of work stress measures for employees with the same job

Most research on job stress is based on the assumption that correlations between perceived work environment and affective measures reflect a relationship between the objective work environment and affective measures. Correlations found among perceived stress measures were similar in magnitude to those found in other work stress studies that had greater variation in the subject sample and jobs. Also, no relationship was found between objective and perceived danger. Alternative explanations for perceived job stress relationships are discussed.     

How Do Information Ambiguity and Timing of Contextual Information Affect Managers’ Goal Congruence in Making Investment Decisions in Good Times vs. Bad Times?

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and may influence management decisions. This study draws upon research on information bias and ambiguity research to empirically test how information ambiguity and non-financial factors (e.g., interpersonal information) affect managers’ capital budgeting decisions when in good vs. bad times. Ninety-two managers completed two experiments. In Experiment One, the information was presented sequentially. Our results show that without the presence of non-financial factors, managers tend to maximize the firm value. After receiving non-financial factors, a significant number of managers switched to the self-serving option in good times (the gain condition) but stayed with firm-value maximization in bad times (the loss condition). In Experiment Two, the information was presented simultaneously in the presence and absence of ambiguity. We found that in the presence of ambiguity, the information presentation has no impact on managers’ self-serving bias in good times or their firm-value maximization tendency in bad times. Interestingly, we also observed managers’ use of interpersonal information even in the absence of ambiguity.JEL Classification: D8     

广告文稿幽默产生的语言机制研究

幽默在广告中的运用越来越普遍,不仅能够使消费者玩味生活中的俏皮幽默,还能有效完成广告诉求。幽默广告逐渐成为一种深受广告人喜欢的现代广告形式。本文重点从语言的歧义、Grice的"合作原则"、修辞手段等方面分析书面广告语中幽默产生的语言机制。     

Evaluating second-order probability judgments with strictly proper scoring rules

Empirical studies have demonstrated that uncertainty about event probabilities, also known as ambiguity or second-order uncertainty, can affect decision makers choice preferences. Despite the importance of second-order uncertainty in decision making, almost no effort has been directed towards the development of methods that evaluate the accuracy of second-order probabilities. In this paper, we describe conditions under which strictly proper scoring rules can be used to assess the accuracy of second-order probability judgments. We investigate the effectiveness of using a particular strictly proper scoring rule the ranked probability score - to discourage biased assessments of second-order uncertainty.     

Stringency of Workplace Air Contaminant Exposure Limits: A Case Study of OSHA Risk Management

Political context may play a large role in influencing the efficiency of environmental and health regulations. This case study uses data from a 1989 update of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limits (PELs) program to determine the relative effects of legislative mandates, costly acquisition of information by the agency, and pressure applied by special interest groups upon exposure standards. The empirical analysis suggests that federal agencies successfully thwart legislative attempts to limit agency discretion, and that agencies exercise bounded rationality by placing greater emphasis on more easily obtained information. The 1989 PELs were less significantly related to more costly information, contained safety factors for chemicals presenting relatively more ambiguous risks, and the proposed standard stringencies showed evidence of being influenced by vying industry and labor interests.     

“行”的艺术:现代诗形式新探

现代诗在形式上的核心特征是分行书写,但这一现象并未得到学界的充分重视。中国古典诗歌以平仄、押韵、粘对等内容为其基本的形式特征,可以视为一种韵的艺术,对于现代格律诗有较大的影响。而随着现代诗的发展,它作为行的艺术则逐渐显示出与传统诗歌相异的特质。分行本身为现代诗提供了一种天然的诗意空间,并由此产生了现代诗行的独立性以及行与行之间的疏离性;这种疏离效果在诗中运用的差异,有时成为衡量一首诗晦涩与否的标尺。而现代诗跨行技巧的经营,更是对现代诗的节奏、风格以及其联缀性、多义性等内容有深刻的影响。就现代诗的句法而论,由于行的技巧的使用,也使得现代诗在很大程度上可以延续中国古典诗歌的诸多特征。     

光、影、色中凸现的人性

《拉帕西尼的女儿》是美国19世纪浪漫主义小说家霍桑一部具有多重象征意义的短篇佳作。这是一则失乐园中新亚当夏娃———乔瓦尼与贝阿特丽丝的爱情悲剧。霍桑自身的矛盾性使他的小说象征意义丰富,引发读者的多种解读。小说中霍桑利用光明与黑暗的转化暗示着人性的正恶,通过颜色的意象揭示出了人性的复杂性及模糊性。光、影、色的娴熟运用反映了霍桑强烈的象征主义倾向。     

Inventory control under different forms of uncertainty: Ambiguity and stochastic variability

Inventory decision makers routinely face ambiguity due to the psychological awareness that there is unknown information about salient events that is knowable in principle. Researchers on inventory control behavior in the face of uncertainty have primarily focused on uncertainty due to stochastic variability. However, most decision situations in the naturally occurring world involve both forms of uncertainty—ambiguity and stochastic variability. We report the results of two experiments that partial out the effects of ambiguity and stochastic variability by orthogonal manipulation of these two forms of uncertainty in a newsvendor task. Contrary to established mathematical models of decision making under uncertainty, increased ambiguity results in increased mean absolute percentage error, and a corresponding decrease in profit. We also find a systematic bias toward underordering associated with increased ambiguity, which is over and above the bias associated with increased stochastic variability. We do not see evidence for learning with repeated play, so that the effects of induced ambiguity appear to persist. Finally, based on our findings, we suggest measures that managers can use to ameliorate the effects of ambiguity.     

On the Smooth Ambiguity Model: A Reply

We find that Epstein's (2010) Ellsberg‐style thought experiments pose, contrary to his claims, no paradox or difficulty for the smooth ambiguity model of decision making under uncertainty developed by Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005). Not only are the thought experiments naturally handled by the smooth ambiguity model, but our reanalysis shows that they highlight some of its strengths compared to models such as the maxmin expected utility model (Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)). In particular, these examples pose no challenge to the model's foundations—interpretation of the model as affording a separation of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude or the potential for calibrating ambiguity attitude in the model.