643例老干部健康体检患病情况分析

目的探讨影响老干部健康的主要疾病及预防策略。方法采用常规健康体检方法对我区643例老(≥60岁)干部进行全面体检及心电图、血液生化指标的检查,并以同时进行体检的1147例老年前期(50～59岁)干部作为对照。结果高脂血症、脂肪肝、高血糖、肾结石、高血压和前列腺增生为这些人群中患病率较高的前六位疾病。老年组中脂肪肝、高血压、高血糖和前列腺增生的患病率均高于老年前期组(P<0．05-0．005),高脂血症和肾结石的患病率在两组间均无显著性差异(P>0．05)。老年组心电图和超声心动图检查出现心肌缺血的改变均多于老年前期组(均P<0．005)。结论诸如高血压、高血糖等动脉硬化的高危因素在老年人中常见,定期健康体检是早期防治心血管疾病的有效方法。     

浅谈战争在明清江南温病学派发展中的作用

战争作为一种社会因素影响着医学的发展。明清时期 ,阶级矛盾激化导致农民起义和市民斗争不断发生 ,在清代 ,还加上一系列的外来侵略战争。战争中人口密集的军队本身就是疫病的高发处 ,而部队的行军和由此引起的人口南移更把传染源带至所过之处。而因人口南移导致的江南人口剧增 ,为疫病的高发和迅速广泛的传播的必要条件。另一方面 ,由此带来的江南的繁荣 ,也为医学和文化的传播和发展提供物质基础     

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Low- or Zero-Prevalence Countries: The Example of Norway

A predictive case-cohort model is applied to Norwegian data to analyze the interaction between challenge and stability factors for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the period 1980-2010. For each year, the BSE risk in cattle is estimated as the expected number of cases. The age distribution of expected cases as well as the relative impact of different challenges is estimated. The model consists of a simple, transparent, and practical deterministic spreadsheet calculation model, in which the following country-specific inputs are entered: (i) annual imports of live cattle and meat and bone meal, (ii) age distribution of native cattle, and (iii) estimated annual basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) for BSE. Results for Norway indicate that the highest risk of BSE cases was in 1989, when a total BSE risk of 0.13 cases per year was expected. After that date, the year-to-year decrease in risk ranged between 3% and 47%, except for a secondary peak in 1994 at 0.06 cases per year. The primary peak was almost entirely (99%) attributable to the importation of 11 cattle from the United Kingdom between 1982 and 1986. The secondary peak, in 1994, originated mainly from the recycling of the U.K. imported cattle (92%). In 2006, the remaining risk was 0.0003 cases per year, or 0.001 per million cows per year, with a maximal age-specific incidence of 0.03 cases per million per year in 10-year-old cattle. Only 15% of the cases were expected in imported cattle. The probability of having zero cases in Norway in 2006 was estimated to be 99.97%. The model and results are compared to previous risk assessments of Norway by the EU.     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

神经分子生物学的发展

分子生物学的崛起改变了神经科学研究的进程。本文回顾了神经分子生物学40年的发展里程,分析了脑的1O年工程研究和焦点。展望了未来30年该领域发展趋势。     

On the Importance of Comparative Research for the Understanding of Human Behavior and Development: A Reply to Gottlieb & Lickliter (2004)

Comparative behavioral research is important for a number of reasons and can contribute to the understanding of human behavior and development in many different ways. Research with animal models of human behavior and development can be a source not only of general principles and testable hypotheses but also of empirical information that may be extrapolated to humans.     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

Affective and Cognitive Factors Influencing Sensitivity to Probabilistic Information

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within‐subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience‐based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience‐based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience‐based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus‐response compatibility.     

Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case

In foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.     

动物权利的法定化困境及其破解

作为伦理学命题出现的动物权利论,在西方及我国法学界得到了部分学者的支持,他们提出了动物应当成为法律主体,享有法律权利的主张。从法学或者法律的角度主张动物权利,不得不面临动物权利法定化的困境:动物主体如何确定,权利内容为何,如何实现权利?这些问题在目前的法律架构中是无法解决的。事实上,动物权利的初衷也是为了保护动物,但它却无法法定化,在社会现状及立法技术条件下,真正能行之有效的动物保护立法策略仍然是动物福利。