An Empirical Test of a Neo-Malthusian Theory of Fertility Change

Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country’s carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it.

Neighborhood change from the bottom Up: What are the determinants of social distance between new and prior residents?

An important source of neighborhood change occurs when there is a turnover in the housing unit due to residential mobility and the new residents differ from the prior residents based on socio-demographic characteristics (what we term social distance). Nonetheless, research has typically not asked which characteristics explain transitions with higher social distance based on a number of demographic dimensions. We explore this question using American Housing Survey data from 1985 to 2007, and focus on instances in which the prior household moved out and is replaced by a new household. We focus on four key characteristics for explaining this social distance: the type of housing unit, the age of the housing unit, the length of residence of the exiting household, and the crime and social disorder in the neighborhood. We find that transitions in the oldest housing units and for the longest tenured residents result in the greatest amount of social distance between new and prior residents, implying that these transitions are particularly important for fostering neighborhood socio-demographic change. The results imply micro-mechanisms at the household level that might help explain net change at the neighborhood level.     

Building home on a fault line: Aging out of child welfare with a serious mental health diagnosis

Youth aging out of foster care are at high risk for homelessness. This research explains how and why homelessness occurs among youth with serious mental health struggles after aging out of residential and transitional living programmes. Using a longitudinal constructivist grounded theory design, we analyse 20 in‐depth interviews exploring youth's transition experiences and perceptions of transition success within 4 months of emancipation and at 6 and 12 months postemancipation. Monthly 15‐min check‐ins prevented attrition. A three‐phase transition process was observed driven by participant desires and actions to cultivate psychological home through establishing physical home alone away from social networks. Pre‐emancipation, the promise of home was privacy and opportunity for self‐redefinition. Shortly after emancipation, home became a physical and social space to be, a valuable resource to share and a demonstration of personal transition success. However, later in the year postemancipation, maintaining physical home proves nearly impossible given the risk context. Findings speak to how and why youth aging out appear overly self‐reliant upon emancipation. Cultivating a psychological sense of home has practice implications for child welfare providers who aim to prepare youth to live independently postemancipation.     

When women veterans return: The role of postsecondary education in transition in their civilian lives

Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the current state of postsecondary educational settings’ outreach to military women who become students postservice. Participants: Data for the present cross-sectional study were obtained from the American College Health Association’s (ACHA) 2011–2014 National College Health Assessment II (NCHA). Methods: Demographic characteristics of the study sample were explored by calculating frequencies and percentages by military service status. Research questions were explored with Fisher’s exact test, maximum likelihood multiple logistic regression, as appropriate. Results: Women service member and veteran students received health information from their university/college less often than women students with no military experience on the following topics: alcohol and other drug use, depression and anxiety, sexual assault and relationship violence prevention, and stress reduction. Conclusions: The findings of this research identified clear gaps in service provision for women student veterans on college campuses and provided some possible models for intervention development.     

Qualitative exploration of supporting figures in the lives of emerging adults who left care compared with their noncare‐leaving peers

Studies on youth leaving care have emphasized their limited social support and their need for continuing support after emancipation. However, less is known about the nature of their existing social networks after emancipation and their roles during their transition to adulthood compared with their noncare‐leaving peers. With this in mind, 32 young adults aged 18 to 25 participated in semi‐structured interviews regarding their current support figures in order to learn whether they were congruent with their needs after emancipation. Thematic analysis revealed four main features of the two groups' social networks: (a) stability versus uncertainty as to the lasting presence of the supportive figure, (b) reliance on parents as main supportive figures versus relying on different supportive figures, (c) confidence versus uncertainty in the supportive figures' ability to help, and (d) holistic versus fragmented support of the young adults' needs. The discussion addresses the unique characteristics of care leavers in emerging adulthood and the implications of their social networks' features for their adjustment after emancipation. One of the study's recommendations is to proactively connect them to new supportive figures such as professionals or mentors by offering them mentoring programs cognizant of the instrumental and developmental tasks of emerging adulthood.     

Everything for the Children: Orphans Growing Up in Informal Adoptive Families in China

Most orphaned children in China are cared for by their extended families or become state wards under the guardianship of child welfare institutions. Some exceptions are children who are found and cared for by families in the community, without a formalized adoption or foster relationship. In some locations, institutions now accept guardianship for these children and support the informal adoptive family to continue to care for them. This article examines the outcomes for these children as they became young adults by comparing these 12 children raised within the system as they approach or have approached young adulthood (now aged 16–40 years-old). Some of the participants were either informally adopted or lived in institutional care. The results of this study found that the family environment was more conducive to the young people’s wellbeing as they approached or entered adulthood. The participants raised in informal care appeared to be treated similar to the biological children in these families. When the institution formalized the state guardianship responsibility, it also meant the families had state resources for support to protect the children’s rights to economic security, education, health care, and social participation. This practice by the institution supported the addition of informal adoption, as one step closer to permanency than foster care. Future implications include considering this option to help promote the family system assisting these children, families, and the state.     

Divorce,living arrangements,and material well-being during the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi

In this paper, we use longitudinal data to investigate how parental death and divorce influence young women’s own experience of divorce in Malawi, a setting where women marry relatively early and unions are fragile. We find that maternal death and parental divorce are positively associated with divorce for young women but, after controlling for socio-demographic and marital characteristics, only the association with maternal death remains statistically significant. Maternal and paternal death are both strongly associated with women’s post-divorce living arrangements, which in turn affects their material well-being. This finding suggests that divorcing at a young age shapes the subsequent life chances of women; although some women return to their parental home and may have the opportunity to reset the transition to adulthood, other women begin their 20s as head of their own household and with considerable material disadvantage.     

Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment

Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on ‘best-guess’ estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. As noted in several existing studies, Tibetan fertility in China then declined swiftly from the early 1980s onwards and has now reached values close to replacement level. Focusing on the 1950–70 period, I examine factors that contributed to shaping the Tibetan fertility increase in more detail. This confirms that changes in nuptiality and disease-related infertility both played a role in pushing up fertility rates among Tibetan women in China.     

金融发展对出口结构影响的理论探析

全球金融危机对中国的出口贸易产生严重冲击,中国对外贸易模式及出口结构的转型迫在眉睫,然而金融发展的相对落后是制约中国贸易结构调整与贸易模式转型的重要因素。文章借鉴Ju和Wei封闭情形下的基本架构,构建了两部门一般均衡分析框架,认为金融发展水平的提高能够降低企业的融资约束,进而导致资本密集型行业产品的相对价格下降,促进该行业产出乃至出口增加。因此,金融发展水平的提高会促进一国出口结构的调整与升级。     

农户生计策略识别及其动态转型

利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2013和2015年两期调查数据,构建收入—资产指数识别了中国农户的生计策略及其跨期动态转型,并从生计阶梯的视角阐释了生计转型对贫困治理的意义。研究发现:(1)农户兼业化和生计多样化程度在不断提高;(2)低收益生计策略退出率和高收益生计策略进入率比较低,生计转型主要发生在中等收益的生计策略中,最终整个生计阶梯演化为“葫芦型”,是对“金字塔”型生计阶梯的一种改善;(3)农户家庭当期的生计策略选择对上一期生计策略具有显著的依赖性。自然资本、人力资本、社会资本和金融资本的积累显著促进了农户生计策略的向高收益流动,而物质资本中的农用固定资产所形成的沉没成本,其捆绑效应阻碍了农户的生计多样化。因此,现阶段扶贫政策应该对农户生计资本提供保障,防止各类外生冲击(包括政策、自然)对农户资产的侵蚀,降低农户生计策略向低收益流动或者单一化的风险。