双斜率因子动态Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构模型及其应用

利率期限结构是利率产品定价的基础和核心,对利率市场化具有重要意义。根据我国债券市场的特点,本文对动态Nelson-Siegel模型进行扩展,引入第二个斜率因子,构造双斜率因子动态利率期限结构模型,增强收益率曲线近端的静态拟合和动态预测能力。本文提出的模型嵌套了动态Nelson-Siegel模型,是对动态Nelson-Siegel模型的实质性推广,极大似然比检验证明了第二个斜率因子引入的必要性。本文以状态空间模型的卡尔曼滤波构造样本似然函数,采用双折线优化算法计算模型参数的极大似然估计。基于我国银行间市场债券交易收益率数据的实证分析表明,双斜率因子模型能够显著改善动态Nelson-Siegel模型对收益率曲线近端的拟合能力,同时对短期预测能力也有改善。此外,第二个斜率因子反映出宏观经济活动对利率期限结构的滞后影响,扩展后的模型能捕捉我国利率期限结构更多的动态变化特征,给相关主体提供更具价值的参考信息。     

中国商品期货回报与现货价格变化测度研究——基于便利收益模型的视角

本文基于便利收益模型(CYM)的视角推导出商品期限结构、期货回报并对期货回报进行分解。选取我国三个商品期货交易所相关数据作为样本,对我国商品期货回报与现货价格变化进行测度研究。研究发现,在样本期内,商品期货回报和现货价格变化之间不存在密切关系;以展期收益或预期现货价格变化为条件的商品风险溢价具有时变性;平均展期收益反映了现货价格变化对风险溢价的预期偏离;期货期限结构、便利收益和展期收益准确地预测了现货价格变化。上述研究结果为我国商品期货回报与现货价格变化的测度和管理以及商品期货投资决策设计提供了一些有帮助的理论借鉴和操作性较强的方法选择。     

Employers' attitudes towards long‐term unemployed people and the role of activation in Switzerland

Over the last few years, most OECD countries have extended their activation policy to new groups of non‐working people, including the long‐term unemployed (LTU). However, it is widely known that employers tend to regard LTU people as potentially problematic persons. This is likely to constitute a major obstacle for long‐term unemployed jobseekers. On the basis of a survey among employers in a Swiss canton (N = 722), this article aims to shed light on the perception employers have of the long‐term unemployed and whether this may matter for their recruitment practices. It also asks what, from the employer point of view, may facilitate access to employment for an LTU person. A key finding is that large companies have a worse image of the long‐term unemployed and are less likely to hire them. Furthermore, independent of company size, a test period or the recommendation of a trustworthy person is seen as the factors most likely to facilitate access to jobs for LTU people.     

高校会计委派制若干问题的探讨

高校会计委派制是高校管理体制重大改革之一,本文剖析了高校内部会计委派制存在的主要问题,对相应的对策作出了阐析,以期能引起有关部门的重视,促进高校委派制早日完善。     

大学校长该任多久 --对哈佛大学校长任期的考察及思考

通过对哈佛大学校长任期的考察,可以看出,首先要办成一所优秀的大学,校长任期制至关重要,其次,让年富力强,有开创精神的人走上大学校长的领导岗位,是大学校长长期任职的保证.     

Assessment of supplier performance based on product-development strategy by applying multi-granularity linguistic term sets

Measuring supplier performance possesses the properties of multi-dimension and multi-scale, it increases the complexity of the aggregation and assessment process. A focal company must develop an effective procedure for overcoming the complexity of performance measurement. Furthermore, the assessment of supplier performance must conform to the product-developed strategy of the focal company. This study is a further research deeper into the concept already introduced in Chang et al. [1] [Applying fuzzy linguistic quantifier to select supply chain partners at different phases of product life cycle. International Journal of Production Economics 2006; 100(2):348–59]; using multi-granularity linguistic variable and numerical ration scale to represent the overall supply performance. By unifying the derived information, the measurement complexity could be resolved. The fuzzy preference was constructed to adjust the consistent direction and transform information into fuzzy relationship. Finally, fuzzy linguistic quantifier guided ordered weighted aggregation (FLQG-OWA) operator with maximal entropy was computed and aggregated with all indicators to meet the current policy of the focal company.     

从中西称谓语看其文化内涵

在汉语和西方语言中,称谓语的使用有极大的不同。在亲属称谓方面,汉语比西语更加细化,不但讲究礼数,区分谦辞和敬辞,还区分直旁系远近亲等。在社会称谓方面,汉语的表达方式也更加丰富。造成这种差异的原因主要可以归结为中西不同的历史、观念和宗教信仰。只有掌握其文化内涵,才能正确理解和使用两种语言中的称谓语,从而顺利完成跨文化交际。     

西昌黄联关镇客话的亲属称谓

本文运用田野调查的方法,系统收集整理了四川省西昌市黄联客家方言岛的亲属称谓词。试从血亲、姻亲和其他关系三个方面来对黄联客家话亲属称谓词做一个系统的描写分析,并对其中部分称谓做了语音上的分析或传统文化含义的阐释。     

论我国无固定期限劳动合同制度——以用人单位单方解除制度为视角

劳动合同制度是劳动法的核心,劳动合同解除制度是劳动合同制度中的主要内容之一,单方解除则为解除制度的重点.无固定期限劳动合同制度重点在于合同解除后责任承担问题,其法律效力理论体现了对用人单位单方解除权的限制.我国应借鉴国外解雇自由与解雇保护原则相协调的模式,而我国现行立法三种劳动合同适用同一种解除制度,其合理性有待商榷.解除原因认定、解除期限通知等规范的可操作性也应进一步加强.     

对《金瓶梅》中“怪＋人物词语”结构的研究

＂怪＋人物词语＂这一当今不常见的语法结构频繁出现于以《金瓶梅》为代表的明清白话小说中,表示嗔怪、责备或对人的称呼。此类结构中的＂怪＂由＂责备＂义引申而来,并带有语法化的性质。由于属于方言俚语,盛行于白话小说中,并是适应特殊语境的需要,＂怪＋人物词语＂结构有一定的语用局限性。