清末"预备立宪"新论

清末立宪,是中国近代宪政史的开端.长期以来,人们对清末立宪存有许多不公正的认识,妨碍了对中国宪政问题的进一步研究.本文主要从清末"预备立宪"的种种改革措施及其实施效果来重新评价清末立宪的历史作用及地位.     

略论传统伦理道德的发展规律和历史命运-传统伦理道德思想论纲之一

中华民族在血缘宗亲的群体关系中,高度地发挥着人的本性,随着孝养的制度化,传统伦理道德思想从其原生期、形成期逐渐走入成熟期,发展出以三纲五常为主体的政治性伦理思想和以仁义说为核心的品格性伦理思想.前者借专制集权主义而大行其道,渐趋极端,压制着后者,扭曲着人性.后者顽强地抗争,熔铸着民族的精神,培养着"民族的脊梁".二者既对立又统一,既冲突又融合,共同构成传统伦理道德思想.这个矛盾的统一体循其矛盾规律而发展,从不中断,绝不消亡,在经过漫长的成熟期的五个阶段后,必然迈入自己的高级期.     

The goal-oriented approach to evaluation: Critique and case study from drug abuse treatment

The specification and measurement of program goals remains central to most evaluation research strategies, yet procedures for implementing this approach are not well-articulated. It is the purpose of this discussion to describe a stepwise procedure for programmatic goal setting and monitoring used in a demonstration drug treatment program for women. Three implementation steps are described: (a) goal setting, (b) checking for consistency, (c) monitoring and feedback. The advantages and limitations of this approach are discussed and useful complementary measurement strategies are suggested.     

Controlling health care costs: An evaluation of strategies

There has been much discussion about the factors underlying inflation in the health care sector and the means to moderate increases in health expenditures. This paper identifies various costcontainment strategies and synthesizes research findings that may be helpful in evaluating their effectiveness. The review demonstrates the complexity of the issues and relationships that must be confronted and understood in cost containment. The delivery system is shown to be not well-suited to improving efficiency and restraining health care expenditure. Any single strategy, whether it involves restructuring the market or more direct regulation, cannot in itself accomplish the combination of expenditure control and adequacy of services that is socially desirable. A number of mutually reinforcing strategies are required. Finally, more empirical and analytical information on incentives, provider and regulatory decisionmaking, costs of regulation, and the dynamics of negotiation, is essential for the design of an effective costcontainment program.     

Evaluating the impact of utility company billing plans on residential energy consumption

Many utility companies offer their customers the choice of participation in an average payment plan, which enables them to pay a fixed sum for their utility bill each month (with final settlement at the end of the billing year), instead of the conventional “pay as you go” billing procedure. Because customers on average payment plans are protected from paying large bills during peak energy-use seasons and because the information about monthly energy use and its cost is perhaps less salient to them, it was hypothesized that customers on the average payment plan would use more electricity than customers not on the plan. Using a nonequivalent control group design, the electricity consumption of a selection of customers of two utility companies (Ns = 475 and 74) was examined. The results showed that there was no evidence to support the hypothesis. Since the logic of hypothesis testing does not permit the ready acceptance of the null hypothesis, several procedural, methodological, and statistical points were made to buttress the conclusion that the average payment plans had no effect on electricity consumption.     

The Impact of the Therapist's Curiosity on the Treatment Process of Children and Adolescents

Therapists bring their own initiative, interest, and wonder—their professional curiosity—into treatment sessions. Some children and adolescents pull away in reaction to this curiosity, bristling or withdrawing, if only for a moment. This can happen abruptly, even in response to the first hello, but most often it occurs subtly, over the course of treatment. These children and adolescents may be replaying the ruptures in relationships they experienced when they have expressed their own initiative and curiosity to important others in their lives. Therapists need to utilize opportunities to understand the dynamics, explore where the original ruptures may have occurred, and bring the experience into therapeutic focus. Case vignettes illustrate these dynamics.     

Covariate Order Tests for Covariate Effect

A new approach for constructing tests for association between a random right censored life time variable and a covariate is proposed. The basic idea is to first arrange the observations in increasing order of the covariate and then base the test on a certain point process defined by the observation times. Tests constructed by this approach are robust against outliers in the covariate values or misspecification of the covariate scale since they only use the ordering of the covariate. Of particular interest is a test based on the Anderson-Darling statistic. This test has good power properties both against monotonic and nonmonotonic dependencies between the covariate and the life time variable.     

"庄生晓梦迷蝴蝶"--论庄子"终身不仕"的原因

庄子"终身不仕",是先秦诸子中"独往独来"的"独有之人".他既不教授弟子,也不游说诸侯,只是偶尔做做白日梦而已.究其原因,从表面上看,是对现实政治的不满.他担心,"千世之后,其必有人与人相食者也".就实质而言,是对个人自由的追求.庄子要做逍遥游,"乘云气,御飞龙,而游乎四海之外".为此,必须明白齐物的道理,齐是非,同生死,"道通为一".从独断论到相对论,其间相距甚远;而从相对论到逍遥游,只有一步之遥.但愿以此化解"人相食"的悲剧,而不仅仅是庄子的白日梦.     

试论孔子"为政先礼"的治国方略

孔子生活时代 ,“礼”的政治含义和思想内涵是“礼制”、“礼仪”、“礼治”、“礼俗”。孔子建立“礼”治社会的主张和措施是“礼以教人”、当权者率先“好礼”、“克己复礼”。孔子对“礼制”的创新和改革表现为“损益”西周以来的礼制 ,扩大“礼治”的社会基础 ,向传统的“礼教”提出挑战     

加快科技奥运建设,促进首都实现跨越式发展

科技奥运是中国申奥成功的重要理念 ,也将成为北京举办奥运会的重要保障条件。加快科技奥运建设对于实现奥运承诺 ,促进首都乃至全国经济、科技的发展都具有深远的意义。“以科技助奥运 ,以奥运促科技”是科技奥运建设的重要内容。本文从科技奥运提出的背景、含义、建设目标、主要任务、实施一年多来取得的进展等方面进行了比较全面的描述。