中国内地和香港能否构成最优货币区研究--来自实证结果的分析

亚洲金融危机后 ,东亚和东南亚国家开始探讨亚洲货币合作问题 ,“亚元”也被提出并受到越来越多的关注。对于统一主权下的中国内地和香港来说 ,在这方面能否先行一步 ?尤其是随着两地经济一体化的发展 ,内地和香港会不会像欧盟那样在经济一体化条件成熟后采用单一货币呢 ?文章在最优货币区理论的基础上对内地和香港经济冲击的对称性进行研究 ,探讨人民币和港币是否有条件实现货币一体化。研究表明目前内地和香港经济冲击的对称性不够高 ,还没有满足组成最优货币区的条件 ,但是从内地和香港未来的发展方向来看 ,经济冲击的对称性将随着经济一体化程度的提高而提高 ,货币一体化的条件也将逐渐成熟。     

我国绿色基础设施的经济价值预算与分析

绿色基础设施是自然的生态基础设施和半自然的市政绿色空间的结合,它遵循自然发展的规律,在改善生态环境和保护生物多样性的同时,也蕴藏着新的经济增长点.本研究尝试构建绿色基础设施经济价值评价指标,测算全国各省的绿色基础设施经济价值(2004-2015),探究其区域分布状况,并进一步运用灰色模型预测2016年、2020年和2025年我国绿色基础设施的经济价值,以期提升人们对绿色基础设施的认识,为在城市规划中建设和完善绿色基础设施提供参考,促进生态环境与经济的良性循环,推动城市可持续发展.     

A Research on Tourism Development Level Measurement and Innovation Integration Development in Bay Area of Hangzhou Bay

As a national strategic pillar industry of tourism, it is very important to explore the innovation and integration of tourism industry in Bay area of Hangzhou Bay. Based on the economic data of seven cities in Bay area of Hangzhou Bay from 2003 to 2016, this paper establishes an index system for evaluating the competitiveness of tourism industry, uses the method of information entropy weight to determine the index weight, and uses the method of standard deviation and coefficient of variation to measure the development level of tourism industry in Bay area comprehensively. The results show that:(1) The competitiveness of tourism industry in Bay area has risen slightly over the past 14 years, and the ranking of competitiveness of cities has shown a stable trend, and the trend of integration is obvious. (2) The advantages of human tourism resources in Bay area urban agglomeration are obvious. It is necessary to reorganize, complement, innovate and integrate the tourism resources of each city in the region, and take “culture + science and technology” as the driving force to promote the transformation, upgrading, innovation and development of tourism products.(3) The tourism industry in Bay area should take resource endowment as its core competitiveness, strengthen the construction of ecological environment in the whole region, seek the upgrading and expansion mode of “pan-text tourism industry” with the help of information technology and regional excellent traffic conditions, economic basis and innovation ability, and realize the leap of “quality” of the competitiveness of tourism industry in Bay area.     

农户兼业、生产性服务与水稻种植面积决策——基于11省1646户农户的实证研究

本文基于全国11省1646户农户调研数据,构建实证模型分析了农户兼业、生产性服务与水稻种植面积之间的关系。结果表明,在兼业农户比重和平均兼业水平都很高的背景下,兼业导致的“劳动力流失效应”在纯农户和兼业农户的种植面积决策中均有所体现,并且在一兼农户中表现最为显著,而“投资效应”仅体现在纯农户的种植面积决策上。接受生产性服务有助于提高各类农户的种植面积,能够缓解种稻劳动力流失对种植面积造成的负面影响,同时能够缓解一兼农户农业收入比重下降对种植面积造成的负面影响。由此,加强粮食产业生产性服务体系建设、加大纯农户粮食生产补贴力度等是稳定我国水稻生产的重要举措。     

稳定和完善农村土地承包关系健全土地承包经营权流转市场

承包土地和家庭人口不符造成人地利益矛盾突出,家庭分散经营制约了现代农业发展,农村普遍开始的土地承包经营权流转尚不规范。针对这些现实问题,通过对河北农村的实际调查研究,本文提出发展农村统一经营服务项目,探索农村集体经济的有效实现形式,进一步稳定和完善土地承包关系,建立农村社会保障机制,健全土地承包经营权流转市场。     

运用科学发展观统领城市与区域的协调发展

改革开放以来,我国的城市得到迅猛发展,城市化过程也大大加快,但是城乡发展、城市与区域的发展、城市之间的发展还存在很多问题和不协调的因素,顾此失彼的现象较为突出,需要我们运用科学发展观去解决经济社会发展中的问题。     

信息分析与预测产业化的法律环境分析

信息分析与预测产业化从产品商品化开始,这是一个庞大的系统工程。其商品化引发了一系列产业连带效应,促进其在服务方式、服务内容、管理体制等方面迅速与市场接轨,并整体向产业化进军。依据我国国情与国际惯例,必须吸收其它部门的立法经验与成果,建立整套完善的有中国特色的信息法律体系。     

论《左传》“天德合一”的天命观——《左传》预言的本质

本文认为,《左传》“多叙鬼神之事,预言祸福之期”现象的产生不是偶然的,而是尚未脱离神职的史官,或者说与宗教文化有千丝万缕联系的史官文化在探究天(神)人关系时的必然现象。《左传》既大讲鬼神对人的控制,又渲染道德决定人的归宿,本文通过对这一看似矛盾现象的系统分析认为,《左传》通过对鬼神预言结果的道德阐释,以高超的技巧将看似杂乱无章的神秘预言纳入到了一个“天德合一”的模式中,从而建构了一个天命控制人类历史,道德决定人的命运的完整的天命观体系;这种把天命神学纳入历史道德领域的努力,是《左传》作者为解释春秋战国之际的历史变迁而做的理论准备,这种试图以建构体系的方式阐释天人关系、历史规律的尝试也是值得肯定的。     

Designing and integrating composite networks for monitoring multivariate gaussian pollution fields

Networks of ambient monitoring stations are used to monitor environmental pollution fields such as those for acid rain and air pollution. Such stations provide regular measurements of pollutant concentrations. The networks are established for a variety of purposes at various times so often several stations measuring different subsets of pollutant concentrations can be found in compact geographical regions. The problem of statistically combining these disparate information sources into a single 'network' then arises. Capitalizing on the efficiencies so achieved can then lead to the secondary problem of extending this network. The subject of this paper is a set of 31 air pollution monitoring stations in southern Ontario. Each of these regularly measures a particular subset of ionic sulphate, sulphite, nitrite and ozone. However, this subset varies from station to station. For example only two stations measure all four. Some measure just one. We describe a Bayesian framework for integrating the measurements of these stations to yield a spatial predictive distribution for unmonitored sites and unmeasured concentrations at existing stations. Furthermore we show how this network can be extended by using an entropy maximization criterion. The methods assume that the multivariate response field being measured has a joint Gaussian distribution conditional on its mean and covariance function. A conjugate prior is used for these parameters, some of its hyperparameters being fitted empirically.     

实施中心村规划是乡村地域发展的关键

本文通过对中心村规划的意义的论述 ,说明只有实施中心村规划 ,城乡一体化才有坚实的基础 ,才能促进乡村地域经济的可持续发展 ,并提出了规划实施的具体措施