Longitudinal data analysis of mean passage time among malnutrition states: an application of Markov chains

Clinical prognosis of patients can be best described from a longitudinal study and a Markov regression model is an appropriate way of analyzing the prognosis of disease when the outcomes are serially dependent. Mean first passage time (MFPT) is a method to estimate the average number of transitions between the states of a Markov chain. The present study used the secondary data from a longitudinal study which was done during 1982–1986. This study was to illustrate the MFPT among the states of malnutrition, which were classified as Normal, Mild/Moderate and Severe among children aged 5–7 years, in South India. The 95% confidence interval (CI) for the MFPT was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Markov regression models were used to test for the association of state transitions across the risk factors. The average time taken for an underweight child to transit from Severe state of malnutrition to become Normal was nearly 2.73 (95% CI 2.60–2.86) years and 3.41 (95% CI 3.25–3.58) years in Rural area and 2.31(95% CI 2.20–2.42) in Urban area. The significant difference between the MFPT for some risk factors are useful to plan interventions. It will especially be useful to find the impact of duration among school-going children on their cognitive disorders.     

Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques

When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. To alleviate the problem, White (2006 White, H. (2006). Approximate nonlinear forecasting methods. In: Elliott, G. Granger, C. W. J. Timmermann, A. eds. Handbook of Economic Forecasting, volume 1, Amsterdam:Elsevier, pp. 459–512.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) presented a solution (QuickNet) that converts the specification and nonlinear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation problem. We shall compare its performance to that of two other procedures building on the linearization idea: the Marginal Bridge Estimator and Autometrics. Second, one must decide whether forecasting should be carried out recursively or directly. This choice is investigated in this work. The economic time series used in this study are the consumer price indices for the G7 and the Scandinavian countries. In addition, a number of simulations are carried out and results reported in the article.     

Efficiency comparison of M-estimates for scale at t-distributions

Using Fisher's information fort-distributions, the absolute asymptotic efficiency of some M-estimates for scale with known location parameter is calculated and graphically illustrated. The compared estimators are the standard deviationS _*, the mean absolute deviation, called mean deviationD _*, the median absolute deviation, called MAD_*, and some M-estimates for scale, one, which is very robust, and another one with high asymptotic efficiency fort-distributions close to the normal. The last one is considered with monotone (in the positive field) and with very late redescending χ-function too. Also the , an alternative and generalized excess measure defined as the double relative asymptotic variance of the underlying scale estimator in the previous paper, is calculated fort-distributions and graphically illustrated, because there is the relation that the higher the asymptotic efficiency of is, the lower is the corresponding .     

Constructing an unbiased estimator of population mean in finite populations using auxiliary information

The objective of this paper is to construct an unbiased estimator (up to order 0(1/n)) of the population mean of the study variatey which is more efficient than the sample mean of the ‘n’ obsrvedy-values. In particular, the unbiased estimators are discussed for the cases of positive and negative correlations of the study variatey and the auxiliary variatex.     

A sufficient condition for the MSE dominance of the positive-part shrinkage estimator when each individual regression coefficient is estimated in a misspecified linear regression model

In this paper, assuming that there exist omitted explanatory variables in the specified model, we derive the exact formula for the mean squared error (MSE) of a general family of shrinkage estimators for each individual regression coefficient. It is shown analytically that when our concern is to estimate each individual regression coefficient, the positive-part shrinkage estimators have smaller MSE than the original shrinkage estimators under some conditions even when the relevant regressors are omitted. Also, by numerical evaluations, we showed the effects of our theorem for several specific cases. It is shown that the positive-part shrinkage estimators have smaller MSE than the original shrinkage estimators for wide region of parameter space even when there exist omitted variables in the specified model.     

Partial groups ranked set sampling and mean estimation

Ranked set sampling (RSS) is an advanced sampling method which is very effective for estimating mean of the population when exact measurement of observation is difficult and/or expensive. Balanced Groups RSS (BGRSS) is one of the modification of RSS where only the lowest, the median and the largest ranked units are taken into account. Although BGRSS is advantageous and useful for some specific cases, it has strict restrictions regarding the set size which could be problematic for sampling plans. In this study, we make an improvement on BGRSS and propose a new design called Partial Groups RSS which offers a more flexible sampling plan providing the independence of the set size and sample size. Partial Groups RSS also has a cost advantage over BGRSS. We construct a Monte Carlo simulation study comparing the performance of the mean estimators of the proposed sampling design and BGRSS according to their sampling costs and mean squared errors for various type of distributions. In addition, we give a biometric data application for investigating the efficiency of Partial Groups RSS in real life applications.     

Modified tests for change points in variance in the possible presence of mean breaks

This paper considers the detection problem of variance changes for the time series involving abrupt and/or smooth breaks in mean. Often, in these situations, the tests of choice are based on cumulative sum of squares statistics. We show that the test statistics are not robust in the presence of broken mean and their sizes suffer severe distortions. The adjusted residual-based method is then proposed to eliminate these deficiencies and makes a significant improvement. Finally, simulation results confirm the validity of these modified test statistics, and an empirical data analysis using some stock price series from the Shanghai Stock Exchange is reported.     

Toward the evaluation of P(X(t) > Y(t)) when both X(t) and Y(t) are inactivity times of two systems

The inactivity time, also known as reversed residual life, has been a topic of increasing interest in the literature. In this investigation, based on the comparison of inactivity times of two devices, we introduce and study a new estimate of the probability of the inactivity time of one device exceeding that of another device. The problem studied in this paper is important for engineers and system designers. It would enable them to compare the inactivity times of the products and, hence to design better products. Several properties of this probability are established. Connections between the target probability and the reversed hazard rates of the two devices are established. In addition, some of the reliability properties of the new concept are investigated extending the well-known probability ordering. Finally, to illustrate the introduced concepts, many examples and applications in the context of reliability theory are included.