扶贫瞄准的绩效评估与机制设计

为了对我国当前的扶贫瞄准绩效作一个较为客观的定量评价,运用瞄准精度和数据包络分析从微观和宏观2个层面对我国扶贫瞄准绩效进行了定量分析,发现我国扶贫瞄准存在严重的漏瞄和溢出现象,扶贫瞄准的投入产出效率不够稳定、波动明显。缺乏有效而统一的瞄准机制是我国扶贫瞄准效率低下的一个重要原因。试图在瞄准对象与瞄准主体之间构建一个双向交流的平台,以促成扶贫瞄准资源投入持续有效地发挥作用,并提高扶贫瞄准的效率,从参与式扶贫的视角出发,设计了瞄准对象与瞄准主体交互作用的动态扶贫瞄准机制。     

伺服加速度计用于高精度倾角测量的研究

伺服加速度计是测量加速度的传感器件,利用其传感重力加速度的原理可以方便地测量其传感轴方向上的倾角。该文以石英挠性伺服加速度计的理论分析为基础,通过对加速度计在不同角度下的输出电压特性的实验研究与分析,说明利用这种伺服加速度计进行高精度倾角测量是可行的。再应用超低频滤波、16位A/D转换、CPU信号处理等技术,通过汇编程序软件进行数字滤波,可形成一个完整的高精度倾角测量系统。     

Another Look at Accuracy and Confidence in Social Judgments

This study examined the relationship between accuracy and confidence on the Interpersonal Perception Task (IPT-15). This version of the IPT contains 15 brief, real-life scenes on videotape for which there are objectively correct answers to questions about status, intimacy, kinship, competition, and deception. A total of 241 participants were run in a 2 (high vs. low cognitive demand) × 2 (first impression vs. nonverbal cues strategy) × 2 (sex of participant) design. Overall, no significant relationship was found when accuracy scores were correlated with two between-participant measures of confidence. There was, however, a significant relationship within-participants between accuracy and confidence. Thus, participants' rated confidence for each of the 15 scenes did predict accuracy in judgments about the scenes. In addition, a 2 × 2 × 2 ANOVA on participants' transformed accuracy-confidence correlations revealed a small, significant effect of strategy. Specifically, the accuracy-confidence correlations were higher when participants were instructed to attend to specific nonverbal cues in making their judgments than when they were told to rely on their first impressions. Although there were no differences between men and women in either their accuracy or their accuracy-confidence correlations, men rated their confidence significantly higher than did women. The factors affecting the accuracy-confidence relationship and their role in automatic judgments are discussed.     

A Method of Assembling Cross-sectional Indicators into a Community Quality of Life

This study develops a new method of measuring quality of life at the local and state level. Further, it presents a methodology that combines heterogeneous indicators from different fields, such as economics, social, and health, into one total measurement. The technique shown can be used to compare one region with another, or compare one metro area with its own performance through time. The analysis shows which categories and indicators are ranked as the highest and serves as a measurement of economic development and potential targets for marketing plans. Every analyst interested in an aggregate, community measurement tool should be interested in the procedure and results.     

信息分享模式对第三方负责回收闭环供应链的影响

研究了零售商预测信息分享对第三方负责回收闭环供应链的影响.分别建立了集中式闭环供应链下信息分享模型以及四种信息分享模式(无信息分享、信息仅与第三方分享、信息仅与制造商分享和信息与制造商和第三方均分享)的闭环供应链模型.研究发现,零售商分享其私有预测信息对其收益是不利的,但信息分享使得信息仅与第三方分享模式下供应链预期利润增加,通过建立信息分享补偿机制使得零售商有动机分享其需求预测信息.同时发现信息分享对各方的价值以及各方对信息分享模式的偏好取决于回收旧产品价格.     

Combination of multiple functional markers to improve diagnostic accuracy

Combination of multiple biomarkers to improve diagnostic accuracy is meaningful for practitioners and clinicians, and are attractive to lots of researchers. Nowadays, with development of modern techniques, functional markers such as curves or images, play an important role in diagnosis. There exists rich literature developing combination methods for continuous scalar markers. Unfortunately, only sporadic works have studied how functional markers affect diagnosis in the literature. Moreover, no publication can be found to do combination of multiple functional markers to improve the diagnostic accuracy. It is impossible to apply scalar combination methods to the multiple functional markers directly because of infinite dimensionality of functional markers. In this article, we propose a one-dimension scalar feature motivated by square loss distance, as an alternative of the original functional curve in the sense that, it can retain information to the most extent. The square loss distance is defined as the function of projection scores generated from functional principal component decomposition. Then existing variety of scalar combination methods can be applied to scalar features of functional markers after dimension reduction to improve the diagnostic accuracy. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden index are used to assess performances of various methods in numerical studies. We also analyzed the high- or low- hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases between 2010 and 2017 in Hong Kong by combining weather conditions and media information, which are regarded as functional markers. Finally, we provide an R function for convenient application.     

新型二自由度并联机构运动学标定方法

精度不足制约着并联机构的发展,传统的并联机构运动学标定方法可以在一定程度上提高并联机构的精度,但 其缺点在于对测量仪器的要求较高,计算量较大。针对一种新型二自由度并联机构,运用无参数化标定的方法对机构进 行运动学标定。该方法不需要进行参数辨识,只需要通过外部测量设备测出机械手末端执行器的位姿,利用运动学正反 解解出实际位姿与期望位姿之间驱动输入的差值,补偿到理论的输入中,即可得到补偿后的动平台位姿。计算机仿真结 果表明,这种方法可以有效地提高动平台定位精度,证明了无参数化标定方法的有效性和可靠性。     

插层组装超分子结构阴离子层柱状材料的合成与表征

用原位法和以Zn2Al-硝酸根水滑石、Mg2Al-硝酸根水滑石为前驱体的阴离子直接交换法分别制备了Zn2Al-铁氰酸根、Zn2Al-亚铁氰酸根、Zn2Al-重铬酸根以及Mg2Al-铁氰酸根插层水滑石,用XRD和IR手段对所合成的样品进行了结构表征,比较了不同合成方法对合成样品性质的影响。结果表明:采用原位法和阴离子直接交换法均能制备相应的插层水滑石,但采用原位法合成的插层水滑石样品其层状结构和晶相明显较好,且采用原位法可以合成出用阴离子交换法不易合成的样品。DTA研究表明,插层水滑石的热稳定性跟层柱材料的组成以及层柱相互作用密切相关。     

信息不对称下供应链成员的决策顺序研究

市场需求通常是不确定的,而供应链成员之间关于需求信息会存在不对称性。本文采用"信号"博弈（Signaling）的方法,探讨信息不对称结构下供应链成员的最优决策顺序。考虑由两个成员组成的供应链,各成员需要决定自己的边际收益,后决策方可以观测到先决策方的决策,并推测（Infer）市场需求信息。研究表明：1）当信息精确度较低时,拥有信息的一方偏向于先决策,而当信息精确度较高时,其会偏向于后决策;2）无论信息精确度的高低,不拥有信息的一方总是偏向于先决策;3）对于整个供应链而言,当信息精确度较低时,拥有信息的一方先决策较优,而当信息精确度较高时,拥有信息的一方后决策较优。一些结论与直观相悖,取决于"信号"成本（Signaling cost）、先行者优势（First-mover advantage）以及后行者对先行者的反应之间的权衡。     

A model-based concordance-type index for evaluating the added predictive ability of novel risk factors and markers in the logistic regression models

ABSTRACT

The Concordance statistic (C-statistic) is commonly used to assess the predictive performance (discriminatory ability) of logistic regression model. Although there are several approaches for the C-statistic, their performance in quantifying the subsequent improvement in predictive accuracy due to inclusion of novel risk factors or biomarkers in the model has been extremely criticized in literature. This paper proposed a model-based concordance-type index, C_K, for use with logistic regression model. The C_K and its asymptotic sampling distribution is derived following Gonen and Heller's approach for Cox PH model for survival data but taking necessary modifications for use with binary data. Unlike the existing C-statistics for logistic model, it quantifies the concordance probability by taking the difference in the predicted risks between two subjects in a pair rather than ranking them and hence is able to quantify the equivalent incremental value from the new risk factor or marker. The simulation study revealed that the C_K performed well when the model parameters are correctly estimated for large sample and showed greater improvement in quantifying the additional predictive value from the new risk factor or marker than the existing C-statistics. Furthermore, the illustration using three datasets supports the findings from simulation study.