试论国有企业经营者激励与约束机制的建立

建立科学有效的国有企业经营者激励与约束机制是国企改革的客观要求。当前国企经营者激励与约束机制在运行中存在诸多问题。必须尽快建立和完善现代企业制度 ;实行规范的年薪制 ;针对不同类型的国有企业分类指导 ;强化市场机制的基础性调节作用     

Identifying and implementing pathways for organizational change – using the Framework for the Assessment of Children in Need and their Families as a case example

Change within social work organizations is incessant. This has implications for senior managers and elected members who have to manage these changes. The Department of Health has introduced new guidance entitled the Framework for the Assessment of Children in Need and their Families ( Department of Health 1999a ). The guidance is based on a number of principles that require an attitudinal shift in terms of assessing ways of safeguarding children and promoting their welfare. This paper describes strategic approaches to the effective introduction of the framework within social services departments and other child welfare organizations. Two models have been adapted from practice: the actual framework for assessing children and their families and the Protchaska and DiClementi model of change. These models complement each other. The adapted Assessment Framework provides a structure to assess the readiness of the organization for the implementation of the new framework. The model of change provides a schema for planning, implementing and reviewing the introduction and operation of the Framework for the Assessment of Children in Need and their Families. Although the focus of the paper is the introduction of the new guidance , the models can be utilized by senior managers in any social care organization who are facilitating major changes in the organization.     

从政府单一管理到综合治理——我国人口发展治理体系建设的政策分析

政府单一管理的传统计划生育管理体制已经不适应当今现实。根据社会治理理论,人口发展治理体系建设需要转换政府职能;缩小政府管制范围,扩大市场机制的应用范围和强度;激励公众参与,建立社会制衡机制。在具体的建设当中要注意处理好四对关系。     

农民工工资支付法治化问题研究 ——基于对《保障农民工工资支付条例》的解读

《保障农民工工资支付条例》(以下简称《条例》)是我国当前面对农民工工资支付出现的新问题制定的一套具有规范化、权威性和有效性的法律保障机制。从农民工工资支付法治化保障机制的制度特点来看,《条例》的主体责任更加明确化,处罚方式强调规范化,监管过程具备严密化,监管主体呈现多元化。《条例》采取全程协同监管手段消除“灰色治理”的“梗阻”,用“法律红线”落实并明确各方的法律主体责任,以细化规定的方式打通工资支付的“绿色通道”,从而能够保障《条例》的有效落实。为了更好地保障农民工的切身利益,《条例》主要从实践逻辑层面上落实法治化保障措施:明确不同监管主体在监督检查领域中的职能定位,对用人单位实行严格的资格认定与法律责任制,在监管领域中始终关注劳有所得的民生问题。     

改革开放以来中国经济周期波动特征与形成机制分析

经济周期波动特征研究既是现实经济运行状况的真实反应,也是经济危机监测与预警机制的前提与基础。利用CF滤波法对1978—2010年间中国经济中主要宏观经济变量进行去势处理,考察了产出的周期波动特征,并以此参照系对改革开放以来国民经济运行展开分析。研究发现,改革开放以来中国经济的周期性波动特征明显,前后共经历了五轮经济波动。根据市场经济体制的确立时间和经济周期波动特点,可以将1978—2010年划分为改革探索时期和改革深化时期。就前者而言,经济周期波动的核心特征是高增长与通货膨胀,政府调节经济主要依靠行政手段,调控的重点是如何抑制需求的过度扩张;就后者论,经济波动的核心特征是流动性过剩、有效需求不足与通货紧缩,政府对经济的调节以间接宏观经济政策为主,调控的重点转变为启动内需。经济周期波动特征、政府调控方式和调控重点的演变反映了改革开放以来中国国民经济结构、宏观经济环境和经济运行机制的变化。     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

风险投资公司激励约束机制的博弈分析

目的/意义受托管理机构的寻租行为会导致政府创业投资引导基金的投资运作偏离预定的政策性目标,完善对受托管理机构的激励监督机制, 防范道德风险的发生,对于确保引导基金投资运作的合规性具有重要意义。设计/方法引入监督成本和惩罚函数,并将其植入Holmstrom-Milgrom线性契约激励模型,构建了一个针对受托管理机构寻租行为的激励监督模型。结论/发现最优激励水平和监督力度一方面受政府与引导基金自身特点的影响,包括政府的监督成本、惩罚力度和引导基金所处市场环境的不确定性,另一方面也与受托管理机构的履约成本、寻租成本和风险偏好有关。政府应在综合考虑这些参数的影响的基础上制定激励监督策略。进一步地分析发现,单独采用激励或监督策略并不能取得最优的治理效果,只有将两种策略结合起来才能更有效地减少寻租行为,降低委托代理成本,实现政府收益的最大化。     

企业年金中的委托-代理风险研究

企业年金涉及雇员、雇主、账户管理人、投资管理人等多方的利益。文章分析了在不同的管理模式下,企业年金各方所形成的双层委托-代理关系,剖析了企业年金委托-代理风险形成的原因,在此基础之上,提出了应对企业年金委托-代理风险的对策。     

On the Need for Restricting the Probabilistic Analysis in Risk Assessments to Variability

It is common perspective in risk analysis that there are two kinds of uncertainties: i) variability as resulting from heterogeneity and stochasticity (aleatory uncertainty) and ii) partial ignorance or epistemic uncertainties resulting from systematic measurement error and lack of knowledge. Probability theory is recognized as the proper tool for treating the aleatory uncertainties, but there are different views on what is the best approach for describing partial ignorance and epistemic uncertainties. Subjective probabilities are often used for representing this type of ignorance and uncertainties, but several alternative approaches have been suggested, including interval analysis, probability bound analysis, and bounds based on evidence theory. It is argued that probability theory generates too precise results when the background knowledge of the probabilities is poor. In this article, we look more closely into this issue. We argue that this critique of probability theory is based on a conception of risk assessment being a tool to objectively report on the true risk and variabilities. If risk assessment is seen instead as a method for describing the analysts’ (and possibly other stakeholders’) uncertainties about unknown quantities, the alternative approaches (such as the interval analysis) often fail in providing the necessary decision support.     

推进马克思主义中国化的动力要素研究

推进马克思主义中国化的动力是一个极其复杂的系统,它包含着诸多要素,有变量和不变量。其中,理论前提、文化环境是不变量;国情条件、实践基础、逻辑主题、实现主体等要素均为变量。这些变量与不变量相互影响、相互作用共同构成了马克思主义中国化的动力要素。