从关联理论看广告标示语的推理

基于关联理论分析广告受众如何通过广告宣传者所设置的明示刺激来获得最佳关联。结果表明:广告宣传者正是通过明示刺激的设置而达到吸引广告受众的注意力、宣传广告产品、劝说广告受众购买被宣传产品这一目的。     

Confounding issues related to determining sample size in qualitative research

The debate on determining sample size in qualitative research is confounded by four fundamental methodological issues: the exclusive focus on theme analysis; the diverse and imprecise use of ‘qualitative’; a reliance on only two logics of inquiry, induction and deduction, and the occasional confusion of abduction with induction; and a general lack of recognition of the importance of differences in ontological assumptions. Embedded in these issues is an unwarranted acceptance of limited associations between certain assumptions, logics, forms of data, and methods of data collection/generation and analysis. What is required is a reformulation of the problem and its discussion with reference to ontological assumptions and logics of inquiry.     

Aggregate Consumption and the Predictability of Asset Returns

This article analyzes the predictability of asset returns that are discounted using a consumption-based discount factor. The main objective of the analysis is to investigate how ancillary statistical assumptions affect the performance of this model. It is shown that, unlike tests of constant-discountrate models, tests of consumption-based models do not critically depend on statistical assumptions; for sufficiently high discount rates, there exist intuitively plausible rates of risk aversion for which appropriately discounted returns are unpredictable, regardless of the statistical specification. Test results are determined by serial correlation properties of prices and dividends and not by serial-correlation properties of returns.     

Theorizing theory: Invitation to a broader conversation about ‘theory’ in sociology

‘Theory’ is a seminal term in sociology. Sociologists tend to ask that articles, chapters and monographs are ‘theoretical’, ‘develop theory’ or ‘make a theoretical contribution’. Yet, as demonstrated in Gabriel Abend’s 2008 article ‘The Meaning of ‘Theory’, it is generally unclear what sociologists mean when they talk about theory. Abend distinguishes seven different meanings sociologists tend to impute to ‘theory’ and argues that no single definition can usefully capture these substantively different meanings. Counter to Abend, we propose and defend a minimal and versatile theory of theory, which does capture the important common denominators in sociologists' various uses of the term theory. The major strengths of our proposal are that it enables informed and synthetic discussion and fosters reflexivity about differences and similarities between different types of theory. Our minimal theory of theory thus serves as an invitation to a broader conversation about theory in sociology.     

Philosophy of social work – a new and advantageous field of training and research

Within the field of social work, there is a long tradition for co-operating with the neighbouring disciplines psychology, psychiatry and sociology. This cooperation has been fruitful and made it possible to reach synthesis in form of holistic theories and multimodal approaches. This article examines the need to establish a closer contact with philosophy also. The author argues that philosophical assumptions make up a kind of cognitive frame that determines professional reasoning in the field of social work. When philosophical aspects are overlooked, the consequence may be shallowness and vagueness in professional reasoning. According to the author, future social workers will reach a more solid understanding of social work theories, the problems the clients are facing and possible relief measures if they as students undergo a thorough philosophical training. Furthermore, social work may be strengthened as an academic discipline if some undetected philosophical presuppositions are traced, clarified and evaluated.     

Missing data in clinical trials: from clinical assumptions to statistical analysis using pattern mixture models

The need to use rigorous, transparent, clearly interpretable, and scientifically justified methodology for preventing and dealing with missing data in clinical trials has been a focus of much attention from regulators, practitioners, and academicians over the past years. New guidelines and recommendations emphasize the importance of minimizing the amount of missing data and carefully selecting primary analysis methods on the basis of assumptions regarding the missingness mechanism suitable for the study at hand, as well as the need to stress‐test the results of the primary analysis under different sets of assumptions through a range of sensitivity analyses. Some methods that could be effectively used for dealing with missing data have not yet gained widespread usage, partly because of their underlying complexity and partly because of lack of relatively easy approaches to their implementation. In this paper, we explore several strategies for missing data on the basis of pattern mixture models that embody clear and realistic clinical assumptions. Pattern mixture models provide a statistically reasonable yet transparent framework for translating clinical assumptions into statistical analyses. Implementation details for some specific strategies are provided in an Appendix (available online as Supporting Information), whereas the general principles of the approach discussed in this paper can be used to implement various other analyses with different sets of assumptions regarding missing data. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy Risk Assessment: The UK experience

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom have mainly had the objective of determining the risks posed to humans from exposure to the causal agents associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease (vCJD). In this article, I examine 19 of these risk assessments published to date and consider how their results might be influenced by underlying model assumptions and methodology. Three separate aspects common to all the assessments are infective load estimation, exposure pathway identification, and risk estimation. These are each discussed in detail.     

对管理假设的探讨

管理假设是客观实践的产物,是人们从事管理实践、研究管理问题的前提。管理假设也随着社会环境、管理条件的变化而不断的修正。管理的假设包括自私性、理智性、可塑性和不信任性,我们的管理理念、管理设计、管理制度、管理方法都是建立在这样的假设之上。自私是人的天性,无私和礼仪是后天社会教育的结果,自私性是管理者看待问题、设计组织方案、制定组织制度的视角,无私和宽容是管理者处理问题需要倡导的主张;人们做出选择总是朝着有利于自己的方面做出选择;人对某事物的认知,都是通过学习和教育促使其发生变化,优秀的员工总是学习和培养教育的结果;对人不信任是制定组织管理制度的前提,对人不信任的制度,也是保护组织及组织内所有人的制度。