C335. Some numerology for the mass ratio of proton to electron,and a partially Bayesian evaluation

Recent small sample studies of estimators for the shape parameter a of the negative binomial distribution (NBD) tend to indicate that the choice of estimator can be reduced to a choice between the method of moments estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), maximum quasi-likelihood estimator and the conditional likelihood estimator (CLE). In this paper the results of a comprehensive simulation study are reported to assist with the choice from these four estimators. The study includes a traditional procedure for assessing estimators for the shape parameter of the NBD and in addition introduces an alternative assessment procedure. Based on the traditional approach the CLE is considered to perform the best overall for the range of parameter values and sample sizes considered. The alternative assessment procedure indicates that the MLE is the preferred estimator.     

BUSDM – an algorithm for the bottom-up search of departures from a model

Searching for regions of the input space where a statistical model is inappropriate is useful in many applications. The study proposes an algorithm for finding local departures from a regression-type prediction model. The algorithm returns low-dimensional hypercubes where the average prediction error clearly departs from zero. The study describes the developed algorithm, and shows successful applications on the simulated and real data from the steel plate production. The algorithms that have been originally developed for searching regions of the high-response value from the input space are reviewed and considered as alternative methods for locating model departures. The proposed algorithm succeeds in locating the model departure regions better than the compared alternatives. The algorithm can be utilized in sequential follow-up of a model as time goes along and new data are observed.     

教师课堂教学质量综合评价方法研究

教师课堂教学质量综合评价以课堂教学质量评价指标体系为基础,综合评价方法主要包括指标加权平均法和模糊综合评价法。难点是评价指标的设计和量化处理,权集的构造。对评价结果的分析可采用绝对评价(等级判断),相对评价,动态评价(个体差异的评价)。     

安徽省市域经济增长质量动态模糊综合评价——基于改进的AHP-FCE集成模型

基于评价指标提供的信息和运用改进的AHP-FCE集成模型对2002—2011年间安徽省各市经济增长质量进行了动态模糊综合评价。从构建的描述经济增长质量5个维度的指标体系中选取了8个代表性指标,建立模糊关系矩阵并优化生成客观权重,由模糊合成运算得到动态综合评价结果。通过各市经济增长质量动态综合评价值、最大序差和影响因素分析,显示出安徽省市域经济增长质量在10年间的动态变化轨迹和区域性差异,只有个别城市处于经济增长质量的核心区域,更多的城市则处于经济增长质量的＂跳跃＂区域,经济增长质量的各维度发展程度不均衡。     

Some practical issues in the evaluation of heterogeneous labour market programmes by matching methods

Summary.  Recently several studies have analysed active labour market policies by using a recently proposed matching estimator for multiple programmes. Since there is only very limited practical experience with this estimator, this paper checks its sensitivity with respect to issues that are of practical importance in this kind of evaluation study. The estimator turns out to be fairly robust to several features that concern its implementation. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that the matching approach per se is no panacea for solving all the problems of evaluation studies, but that its success depends critically on the information that is available in the data. Finally, a comparison with a bootstrap distribution provides some justification for using a simplified approximation of the distribution of the estimator that ignores its sequential nature.     

自然灾害类非常规突发事件应急方案效果评估指标体系初建

指标体系构建是进行非常规突发事件应急方案效果评估的基础和前提。自然灾害类非常规突发事件具有自身特点,其指标体系也具有更强的针对性。在结合相关文献研究成果和实际案例的基础之上,初步构建了自然灾害类非常规突发事件应急方案效果评估的主评价指标和辅助评价指标,为下一步运用科学方法进行应急方案的效果评估奠定了基础。     

基于DEA模型的高校社会服务绩效研究——以杭州市高校为例

运用一种多指标输入/输出复杂系统的相对有效性评价方法——数据包络（DEA）法对杭州市高校社会服务绩效进行评价,并根据评价结果分析存在的问题及提出相应的解决措施。最后通过实例说明DEA是高校社会服务的绩效评价的有效方法之一。     

会计师事务所质量控制体系研究

尽管我国的注册会计师事业发展迅速,但在繁荣的背后还存在很多问题。我国注册会计师行业质量控制体系应通过外部环境、审计客户、会计师事务所、审计人员四个方面来构建,以此来提高审计质量,维护社会主义市场经济秩序,保障我国市场经济稳定、健康发展。     

中国传统文化中的义利统一论

中国古代伦理史上的义利之辨历时长久,在为人熟知的重义轻利的儒家和重利轻义的法家之外,有主张义利统一的流派：墨家的义利相合论;西汉司马迁、东汉王充和桓潭等人的义以利生论;宋代李觏、陈亮、叶适、王安石、清初颜元等人的义利并重论。梳理把握传统伦理思想中的义利统一流派的基本构成,可以对其理论价值及其异同进一步加以确认。     

论现代技术伦理评价的原则

技术与社会的发展使技术伦理评价日益受到重视。技术伦理评价的原则旨在为人们达成一致的伦理评价找到结合点。本文分别从技术与人、自然和社会三个层面提出和阐述了现代技术伦理评价的三个原则,即技术人道主义原则、技术生态主义原则和责任原则。