班禅系统与中央政府关系发展分期及特点

17世纪中期,班禅系统与中央政府开始建立联系。之后的三个多世纪以来,二者的关系尽管一度出现挫折,并呈现出一定的功利性,但合作和发展一直是主流。同时,在长期的交往中,二者关系发展呈现出许多独自的特点。考察班禅系统与中央政府之间的关系,对于认识中央政府与西藏地方关系具有重要的意义。     

全民养老参保的进展、难点及对策

随着中国人口老龄化程度的不断加深,建立覆盖法定人群的基本养老保险体系、保障公民未来的老年生活迫在眉睫。目前,中国全民养老参保工作已取得了明显进展,然而在实施过程中,仍有5 700万参保意愿偏低的“未保者”掣肘着基本养老保险的扩面工作。此外,养老保险关系转移不畅、流动人员与雇佣单位的劳动关系不确定导致前者的养老参保权益难以受到保障等问题,也成为提高基本养老保险覆盖率的障碍,“未保”“少保”“弃保”现象屡见不鲜。针对上述难点,适度降低城镇职工养老保险的缴费额、宣传基本养老保险的共济性作用以激励社会成员积极参保、建设更加灵活公平的参保机制、相关部门加强执法力度和尽快完成基本养老保险全国统筹等对策的实施在一定程度上显得尤为必要。     

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想大众化研究——基于日常生活的维度

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想大众化离不开日常生活这一基础性领域,日常生活也需要新思想指导,二者之间存在着内在的逻辑关系。新思想大众化走向日常生活有着十分重要的意义。因此,在推进新思想大众化的进程中,主体须从党组织、政府、学院派等关键主体走向以群众基础主体为主的多元主体的融合,内容须从传统经典文本走向传统与日常生活内容的结合,话语从政治理论话语走向日常生活的大众话语,形式从单向的传统模式走向现代教育渠道和途径的多维互动,才能为新思想大众化营造一个良好的心理基础和前提,才能赢得广大民众的信任和支持,真正被人民大众认知、认同并自觉践行。     

习近平关于青年成长的论述蕴含的历史唯物主义底蕴及其意义

习近平关于青年成长的论述不仅具有丰富的内涵,还蕴含着深厚的历史唯物主义哲学底蕴。习近平立足当前的社会现实,坚持唯物主义历史观,密切联系中国发展的现实和青年成长的实际,用中国梦引领新时代青年,充分诠释了青年发展和时代进步之间的相互关系。在对青年的认识上,习近平坚持以人为本,从青年本体出发,根据青年自身的发展特点和规律开展青年工作,把促进人的自由全面发展作为青年发展的目标。同时,强调实践的重要性,鼓励青年积极发挥主观能动性,增强创新创造能力,发扬艰苦奋斗精神,练就过硬本领,把实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦落实到具体的社会实践中。习近平关于青年成长的论述是对马克思主义青年观的创新和发展,具有鲜明的时代特色和中国特色,是新时代习近平中国特色社会主义思想的重要组成部分,具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。     

Test for Parameter Change in Linear Processes Based on Whittle's Estimator

In this article, we develop a cusum test for testing for parameter changes in linear processes based on Whittle's estimator. It is shown that under regularity conditions, the test statistic converges to the sup of a Brownian bridge. The result is particularly useful in handling the change point test in stationary ARMA processes. A simulation result is provided for illustration.     

Gluing Copulas

We present a new way of constructing n-copulas, by scaling and gluing finitely many n-copulas. Gluing for bivariate copulas produces a copula that coincides with the independence copula on some grid of horizontal and vertical sections. Examples illustrate how gluing can be applied to build complicated copulas from simple ones. Finally, we investigate the analytical as well as statistical properties of the copulas obtained by gluing, in particular, the behavior of Spearman's ρ and Kendall's τ.     

Dynamic Copula-Based Markov Time Series

This article examines a test procedure for checking the constancy of serial dependence via copulas for Markov time series data. It also provides a copula-based modeling approach for the dynamic serial dependence. Various parametric families of copulas offering different dependent structures are investigated. A score test is proposed for checking the constancy of a copula parameter. The score test is constructed and its asymptotic null distribution established under a two-stage estimation procedure. The test does not require specification of the probability distribution for the copula parameter. To capture the dynamics of dependence structure over time, autoregressive moving average and exponential type models are proposed. Illustrations are given based on simulated data and historic coffee prices data.     

Inference for the Mean Residual Life Function via Empirical Likelihood

In addition to the distribution function, the mean residual life (MRL) function is the other important function which can be used to characterize a lifetime in survival analysis and reliability. For inference on the MRL function, some procedures have been proposed in the literature. However, the coverage accuracy of such procedures may be low when the sample size is small. In this article, an empirical likelihood (EL) inference procedure of MRL function is proposed and the limiting distribution of the EL ratio for MRL function is derived. Based on the result, we obtain confidence interval/band for the MRL function. The proposed method is compared with the normal approximation based method through simulation study in terms of coverage probability.     

Mixed Graphical Model Selection Using Holm's Procedure

The problem of selecting a graphical model is considered as a performing simultaneously multiple tests. The control of the overall Type I error on the selected graph is done using the so famous Holm's procedure. We prove that when we use a consistent edge exclusion test the selected graph is asymptotically equal to the true graph with probability at least equal to a fixed level 1 ? α. This method is then used for the selection of mixed concentration graph models by performing the χ²-edge exclusion test. We also apply the method to two classical examples and to simulated data. We compare the overall error of the selected model with the one obtained using the stepwise method. We establish that the control is better when we use the Holm's procedure.