论国际互联网对旅行社业的冲击

进入 2 1世纪以后 ,旅游越来越被普通老百姓所接受 ,旅行社作为旅游业的三大支柱之一 ,前景光明。但随着国际互联网的出现和广泛使用 ,给传统旅行社带来了巨大威胁。本文在详细论述互联网给旅行社带来冲击的基础上 ,指出在互联网影响下旅行社存在发展的机遇 ,提出旅行社生存发展的具体对策。     

谈普通高校体育课程改革思路

为贯彻《全国普通高等学校体育课程教学指导纲要》精神,结合当前高校体育教学实际,通过调查研究、经验总结等方法,对普通高校体育课程改革中存在的一些问题进行了分析,着重研究和探讨了深化改革的思路和途径,提出了改革大学体育课程建设的建议,以促进学校体育教学改革的进一步深化。     

THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF BROADBAND HOUSEHOLD INTERNET ACCESS

Broadband changes everything. Or so we are told. But does it? There is only one way to find out - follow people who move from narrowband to broadband internet access and see what changes. This paper reports exactly this kind of analysis using data from a two wave European panel study (e-Living) and the lagged endogenous regression approach to see if switching to broadband increases the time spent online, the use of online communication services, the breadth of internet activities and the amount of online spend, and whether it decreases the time spent watching TV and the level of social leisure activities. The results suggest, in the main, that switching to broadband made little difference for this group of early broadband adopters who were already heavy internet users. There was no evidence of an online spend or social leisure substitution effect although there was evidence of a reduction in time spent watching television, and an increase in email in use, time spent online and breadth of internet use. In all cases however it was the previous levels of behaviour that were the most significant and switching to broadband was, in general, one of the least strong effects.     

A Sparse Implementation of the Average Information Algorithm for Factor Analytic and Reduced Rank Variance Models

Factor analytic variance models have been widely considered for the analysis of multivariate data particularly in the psychometrics area. Recently Smith, Cullis & Thompson (2001) have considered their use in the analysis of multi‐environment data arising from plant improvement programs. For these data, the size of the problem and the complexity of the variance models chosen to account for spatial heterogeneity within trials implies that standard algorithms for fitting factor analytic models can be computationally expensive. This paper presents a sparse implementation of the average information algorithm (Gilmour, Thompson & Cullis, 1995) for fitting factor analytic and reduced rank variance models.     

外语戏剧节对英语专业学生的影响——以四川大学外国语学院2005年戏剧节为例

在加德纳的多元化智能理论指导下,从学生个性发展、教材层面、教师授课角度、学生语言接受能力等方面对外语戏剧节对学生的影响进行观察性描述,通过抽样调查,可以得出结论:外语戏剧节对英语专业学生的间接影响主要体现在提高学习自信心、增强学习动机上;戏剧节对英语专业学生的直接影响,更多表现在对班级文化和身份的积极建塑上.     

Joint impact of multiple observations on a subset of variables in multiple linear regression

In multiple linear regression analysis, each observation affects the fitted regression equation differently and has varying influences on the regression coefficients of the different variables. Chatterjee & Hadi (1988) have proposed some measures such as DSSE_ij (Impact on Residual Sum of Squares of simultaneously omitting the ith observation and the jth variable), F_j (Partial F-test for the jth variable) and F_j(i) (Partial F-test for the jth variable omitting the ith observation) to show the joint impact and the interrelationship that exists among a variable and an observation. In this paper we have proposed more extended form of those measures DSSE_IJ, F_J and F_J(I) to deal with the interrelationships that exist among the multiple observations and a subset of variables by monitoring the effects of the simultaneous omission of multiple variables and multiple observations.     

基于GRPLS 回归的 中国经济增长影响因素分析

构造一种新的方法———岭- 偏最小二乘回归方法(它既有效消除了因素变量之间的多 重共线性,又克服了传统方法的不足,且使模型更加稳健,具有更强的预测和分析能力) ;并运 用广义岭- 偏最小二乘回归方法分析了我国经济增长的影响因素,为我国制订持续、快速增长 的经济政策提供了有益的参考.     

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. Risks of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic risk analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a modeling framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing risk. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to risk analysis through hierarchical holographic modeling, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in risk assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying risk, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline model for assessing and managing risks of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision-making processes.     

中国内地和香港能否构成最优货币区研究--来自实证结果的分析

亚洲金融危机后 ,东亚和东南亚国家开始探讨亚洲货币合作问题 ,“亚元”也被提出并受到越来越多的关注。对于统一主权下的中国内地和香港来说 ,在这方面能否先行一步 ?尤其是随着两地经济一体化的发展 ,内地和香港会不会像欧盟那样在经济一体化条件成熟后采用单一货币呢 ?文章在最优货币区理论的基础上对内地和香港经济冲击的对称性进行研究 ,探讨人民币和港币是否有条件实现货币一体化。研究表明目前内地和香港经济冲击的对称性不够高 ,还没有满足组成最优货币区的条件 ,但是从内地和香港未来的发展方向来看 ,经济冲击的对称性将随着经济一体化程度的提高而提高 ,货币一体化的条件也将逐渐成熟。     

Industry and the environment: a case study of cleaner technologies in selected European countries

The aim of this case study is to discuss the role of technology in addressing environmental problems. The paper tries to scratch beneath the surface of the increasingly frequent ‘quick-fix’ solutions to the present environmental problems, based on such beguiling catchwords as Cleaner Technologies, Best Available Technologies, and Best Available Technologies Not Exceeding Excessive Costs, etc., in an attempt to discover whether there is any substance in them, or whether they are just full of hot air. Recent data from case studies performed by the author in Germany and Finland as well as a postal questionnaire in Denmark are presented. The paper analyses and discusses the roles and responsibilities of designers, industrialists, and government policy-makers. It is argued that existing regulatory regimes, supranational industrial structures, and market mechanisms do not favour the development of cleaner technologies, nor do they promote a reduction in consumption patterns. Evidence from ongoing empirical research in Northwest Europe suggests that industry is far from developing and/or implementing cleaner technologies. The paper closes with a discussion of some of the policy implications involved and some examples of urgently needed further research.