论信息传播的道德过滤

通过互联网进行的信息传播 ,较之以往的信息传播具有更大的自由性。虽然不能再像以往那样实行过于严厉的信息传播管制 ,但仍然有必要对信息传播予以一定的道德限制。道德过滤是公共信息通道中的外在道德限制 ,尽管它由于具有外在性、他律性而不同于信息传播主体的自我道德限制 ,但却可以弥补信息传播主体的道德自律之不足 ,并能够促进道德自律的形成。构建道德过滤的一般模式 ,应当充分考虑分级、分类、分圈这三方面的要求     

时变参数模型在就业弹性中的应用

因经济增长与就业增长之间互动变化,就业弹性系数应该是时变参数,应用时变参数模型实证分析大连市就业弹性在1993年至2005年的变化趋势,得出就业弹性在样本期间的变化幅度及整体水平较全国偏低的结论,分析经济增长对就业弹性影响的原因,并提出发展二三产业和中小企业,鼓励灵活就业和非正规就业的建议。     

State estimation for nonlinear state-space transmission models of tuberculosis

Given the high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and the mortality rate associated with the disease, numerous models, such as the Gammaitoni and Nucci (GN) model, were developed to model the risk of transmission. These models typically rely on a quanta generation rate as a measurement of infectivity. Since the quanta generation rate cannot be measured directly, the unique contribution of this work is to develop state estimators to estimate the quanta generation rate from available measurements. To estimate the quanta generation rate, the GN model is adapted into an augmented single-room GN model and a simplified two-room GN model. Both models are shown to be observable, i.e., it is theoretically possible to estimate the quanta generation rate given available measurements. Kalman filters are used to estimate the quanta generation rate. First, a continuous-time extended Kalman filter is used for both adapted models using a simulation and measurement sampling rate of 60 s. Accurate quanta generate rate estimates are achieved in both cases. A more realistic scenario is also considered with a measurement sampling rate of one day. For these estimates, a hybrid extended Kalman filter (HEKF) is used. Accurate quanta generation rate estimates are achieved for the more realistic scenario. Future work could potentially use the HEKFs, the adapted models, and real-time measurements in a control system feedback loop to reduce the transmission of TB in confined spaces such as hospitals.