Setting the control limit at release for stability assurance

A common task in quality control is to determine a control limit for a product at the time of release that incorporates its risk of degradation over time. Such a limit for a given quality measurement will be based on empirical stability data, the intended shelf life of the product and the stability specification. The task is particularly important when the registered specifications for release and stability are equal. We discuss two relevant formulations and their implementations in both a frequentist and Bayesian framework. The first ensures that the risk of a batch failing the specification is comparable at release and at the end of shelf life. The second is to screen out batches at release time that are at high risk of failing the stability specification at the end of their shelf life. Although the second formulation seems more natural from a quality assurance perspective, it usually renders a control limit that is too stringent. In this paper we provide theoretical insight in this phenomenon, and introduce a heat-map visualisation that may help practitioners to assess the feasibility of implementing a limit under the second formulation. We also suggest a solution when infeasible. In addition, the current industrial benchmark is reviewed and contrasted to the two formulations. Computational algorithms for both formulations are laid out in detail, and illustrated on a dataset.     

疲劳极限以下小载荷的强化和损伤试验

以某变速箱圆柱齿轮单齿弯曲为例,对疲劳极限以下小载荷的强化和损伤进行了试验研究.结果表明,疲劳极限以下的小载荷对疲劳寿命、疲劳强度和静强度均具有强化作用;一定范围内的小载荷作用一定的次数才能体现出强化效果;循环载荷谱中小载荷虽有一定的强化作用,但强化效果有所下降;循环载荷谱中小载荷循环次数增加,其强化效果随之增加;高载荷造成损伤后,原来具有强化作用的小载荷失去了强化效果,但更低的小载荷却体现出一定的强化效果;小载荷强化的原因是材料的微观组织得到强化和改善.     

实行产业政策的合理界限分析--东亚国家和地区的经验教训及其对我们的启示

本文结合东亚大多数国家和地区推行产业政策的经验和教训,对实行产业政策的合理界限进行分析。我们主要应注意保护性政策的阶段性;注意产业政策实施中的金融安全;注意产业政策目标的单一性,等等。     

The Newsvendor Problem and Price‐Only Contract When Bankruptcy Costs Exist

We study a supply chain of a supplier selling via a wholesale price contract to a financially constrained retailer who faces stochastic demand. The retailer might need to borrow money from a bank to execute his order. The bank offers a fairly priced loan for relevant risks. Failure of loan repayment leads to a costly bankruptcy (fixed administrative costs, costs proportional to sales, and a depressed collateral value). We identify the retailer's optimal order quantity as a function of the wholesale price and his total wealth (working capital and collateral). The analysis of the supplier's optimal wholesale price problem as a Stackelberg game, with the supplier the leader and the retailer the follower, leads to unique equilibrium solutions in wholesale price and order quantity, with the equilibrium order quantity smaller than the traditional newsvendor one. Furthermore, in the presence of the retailer's bankruptcy risks, increases in the retailer's wealth lead to increased supplier's wholesale prices, but without the retailer's bankruptcy risks the supplier's wholesale prices stay the same or decrease in retailer's wealth.     

“执转破”启动职权主义的普适危机与程序应对

在当事人申请主义模式下，我国“执转破”启动运行不畅的主要障碍不在于参与分配，而是启动破产对当事人利益保障有限所导致的当事人同意“执转破”的动因不足，加之依职权强制启动破产的立法缺失，使“执转破”呈现“失范”现象。执行退出难和破产启动难激发我国“执转破”的变革，2022年《中华人民共和国民事强制执行法(草案)》第82条规定的“执转破”启动模式，将当事人同意调整为终结本次执行前提下的法院依职权强制启动，并叠加破产法院原则上应当受理，增设依职权启动的规定，由此确立我国破产启动的“当事人申请主义为主，职权主义为辅”二元模式。域外国家和地区的比较考察表明，虽然当事人申请主义是破产启动的主流，但职权主义并未被完全摒弃。其成因在于，国家应在执行和破产程序中把公共利益的考量纳入其中，破产利益属于公共利益的应有之义。职权进行主义在程序推进的同时要求，只要不再有进一步审理的余地，即使当事人提出异议，法官仍命令终结并不违反程序规定。就金钱执行而言，我国集中执行模式以债务人全部责任财产作为执行标的，奠定“执转破”职权启动与两法衔接的基础。从本质上说，“执转破”是国家净化市场的职权干预方案，实现特定主体的快速出...     

Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy–Tailed Errors

ARCH and GARCH models directly address the dependency of conditional second moments, and have proved particularly valuable in modelling processes where a relatively large degree of fluctuation is present. These include financial time series, which can be particularly heavy tailed. However, little is known about properties of ARCH or GARCH models in the heavy–tailed setting, and no methods are available for approximating the distributions of parameter estimators there. In this paper we show that, for heavy–tailed errors, the asymptotic distributions of quasi–maximum likelihood parameter estimators in ARCH and GARCH models are nonnormal, and are particularly difficult to estimate directly using standard parametric methods. Standard bootstrap methods also fail to produce consistent estimators. To overcome these problems we develop percentile–t, subsample bootstrap approximations to estimator distributions. Studentizing is employed to approximate scale, and the subsample bootstrap is used to estimate shape. The good performance of this approach is demonstrated both theoretically and numerically.     

德国破产刑事法研究

德国的破产犯罪立法有着悠久的历史,在漫长的发展过程中,日臻完善并形成独立的体系。作为严重的经济犯罪类型,目前德国破产犯罪案件逐年增加,并且造成的损失不断扩大。《德国刑法典》第二十四章用专章共五条来规制破产犯罪。德国不存在专门从事侦查、起诉破产犯罪的特别机构。民事与刑事司法机构之间的协调有利于发现和打击破产犯罪。