Optimal Composite Markers for Time‐Dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves with Censored Survival Data

Abstract. To increase the predictive abilities of several plasma biomarkers on the coronary artery disease (CAD)‐related vital statuses over time, our research interest mainly focuses on seeking combinations of these biomarkers with the highest time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. An extended generalized linear model (EGLM) with time‐varying coefficients and an unknown bivariate link function is used to characterize the conditional distribution of time to CAD‐related death. Based on censored survival data, two non‐parametric procedures are proposed to estimate the optimal composite markers, linear predictors in the EGLM model. Estimation methods for the classification accuracies of the optimal composite markers are also proposed. In the article we establish theoretical results of the estimators and examine the corresponding finite‐sample properties through a series of simulations with different sample sizes, censoring rates and censoring mechanisms. Our optimization procedures and estimators are further shown to be useful through an application to a prospective cohort study of patients undergoing angiography.     

推进户籍制度改革面临的深层次问题

户籍制度改革是一个系统工程,涉及方方面面的问题。户籍制度改革重在赋权和增利,即通过一系列改革,让农民与市民享有同等权利,获得同等利益,拥有同等福利。一旦在城乡实现基本公共服务均等化,城乡分割的户籍制度就自然消亡。我国之所以会出现人口城市化严重滞后于土地城市化,在于土地制度改革未能取得突破性进程,“土地价格剪刀差”成为地方政府财政收入的重要来源。只有转变政府职能,使地方政府从经济建设型政府转变为公共服务型政府,才能为城乡基本公共服务均等化创造体制性条件。     

基于国际经验的环杭州湾大湾区经济发展对策分析

It is of great strategic importance to develop the Great Bay Area of Hangzhou Bay as a new growth pole for the regional economy and to boost China’s economic globalization. On the basis of assessing the economic development status and major economic factors of the Great Bay Area of Hangzhou Bay, this paper compares the advanced practical experience of economic development in the San Francisco Bay Area, the New York Bay Area, and the Tokyo Bay Area, thereby summarizes the issues and proposes corresponding countermeasures and recommendations, including strengthening the concept of ecological priority, planning from top level, defining the function orientation of cities, reforming the local government assessment mechanisms to break down regional administrative barriers, promoting manufacturing transformation and upgrading, cleaning up, integrating and withdrawing development zones, promoting infrastructure construction and improving urban function     

历史时期以西安为中心的关中地区政区设置之特点及其当代启示

西安是中国历史时期多个王朝之都城,也是中央王朝控驭西北地区重镇以及挽毂中原与西北、西南地区之枢纽。在中国特色社会主义进入了新时代后,以国家级中心城市西安为首,调整改革关中地区的行政区划,是重大的学术与现实问题。对历朝历代在以西安为中心的关中地区的政区设置进行分析,对形成的一些相沿成习的重要特点进行论证。研究认为,撤销咸阳市与铜川市并入西安市,重现西汉“三辅”、东汉与隋代关中三郡并立之历史时期经典型的行政区划建置格局;咸阳市原辖之秦都区、渭城区列为西安市市辖区,渭城区改称为“咸阳区”;黄陵县划入大西安市内,增加清明黄帝陵祭祀的影响力;渭南市富平县划入大西安市;另还将渭河源头之甘肃省定西市下属渭源县、陇西县以及泾河源头之宁夏回族自治区固原市下属泾源县也划入大西安市。如此,形成以国家级中心城市西安为首之关中平原城市群,可更有力地推动国家级中心城市西安建成为中国西部经济中心、“一带一路”对外交往高地、丝路文化高地以及内陆开放高地与综合交通枢纽。     

海岛主权争端与国际关系问题探讨

我国海域辽阔,岛屿众多,但在东海和南海的海域中,部分岛屿由于各种复杂原因,至今还为外国势力所染指和占领,严重侵犯了我国的领土完整和主权安全,不仅影响了我国的海域经济发展,而且也扰乱了周边的国际关系。有鉴于此,本文对海岛主权争端与国际关系问题进行深入探讨,并提出解决海岛主权争端的对策创意。     

论习惯形成与公共文明建设

一个国家公民的公共素养,表面看表现为道德和素质,实质上则是公民个人长期形成的习惯。习惯是一个人接受、训练并逐渐适应的行为方式。公共文明建设的最终目的就是要在公民个体中进行文明意识和文明行为习惯的训练。由于习惯具有后天习得性、相对稳固性等基本特征并由此对公共文明建设提出了新的要求,所以,建设的参与者在习惯形成的过程中,必须明确公共文明习惯形成的必要性和紧迫性、计划性和可行性、艰巨性和长期性。个体为公共文明建设所做出的习惯改变不仅是公民道德建设的外在要求,更应该成为每个人自觉提升素质层次、完善人格修养的内在动力。     

A Small Area Predictor under Area-Level Linear Mixed Models with Restrictions

A calibrated small area predictor based on an area-level linear mixed model with restrictions is proposed. It is showed that such restricted predictor, which guarantees the concordance between the small area estimates and a known estimate at the aggregate level, is the best linear unbiased predictor. The mean squared prediction error of the calibrated predictor is discussed. Further, a restricted predictor under a particular time-series and cross-sectional model is presented. Within a simulation study based on real data collected from a longitudinal survey conducted by a national statistical office, the proposed estimator is compared with other competitive restricted and non-restricted predictors.     

世界级大都会区建设的国际经验及启示

文章在对美国纽约大都会区、英国伦敦大都会区、日本东京大都会区等国际知名大都会区建设的实践经验进行梳理的基础上,总结出国际大都会区建设对促进珠三角大都会区建设的若干启示：政府引导是关键,交通设施建设是基础,中心城市优势突出、定位明晰,优化产业结构、实现错位发展。     

“当”的本义与“当”类词语释义问题——兼论本义本位释义法

所谓"当"类词语,可以指包括"当"在内的以"当"为词法或句法成分的一类词语。"当"使"当"类词语成为一定规模的词语系统,并造成系统内部相当复杂的词语关系。在这种情况下,恰当认识"当"的本义,对解释包括"当"在内的"当"类词语的意义,具有关键作用。事实上,对"当"及"当"类词语意义的解释,的确存在禁不起推敲的地方,影响对此类词语的学习、掌握、运用。通过恰当认识"当"的本义,有助于解决"当"类词语中存在的释义问题。     

民族地区义务教育问题与对策研究——以务川仡佬族苗族自治县为个案

在国家及各级地方政府的大力扶持下,我国民族地区义务教育状况发生了巨大变化——教育教学条件大幅改善,教育水平不断提高.尽管如此,民族地区义务教育仍然存在着许多亟待解决的问题.基于此,文章以贵州省务川仡佬族苗族自治县为个案,分析了该县义务教育发展面临的现实问题,并提出了切实可行的解决措施,以期为促进民族地区义务教育更好更快的发展提供参考与借鉴.