二世策墨林诺们罕活佛圆寂日期与地点续考

二世策墨林诺们罕是清代西藏著名活佛，原籍甘肃省洮州厅卓尼土司辖区，曾任西藏摄政（1819-1844）、第七十三任甘丹赤巴和十世达赖喇嘛的正师傅，是西藏历史上权势最大、结局最为悲惨的摄政活佛。道光二十四年（1844年）六月其被革职查办，拘禁拿问，次年（1845年）奉旨流放黑龙江，给披甲人为奴。国内外史学界对其最终结局、圆寂时间、圆寂地点、享年岁数及其呼毕勒罕三世策墨林活佛的出生年份历来众说纷纭。中国第一历史档案馆藏军机处录副奏折表明：成丰十年四月十九日（1860年6月8日），二世策墨林诺们罕活佛在新疆喀喇沙尔乌讷恩苏珠克图旧土尔扈特蒙古南部落的札萨克卓哩克图汗旗圆寂，享年69岁（1792-1860年），遗骨奉旨安葬于该旗境内的佑安寺（又称永安寺、巴伦台黄庙），其呼毕勒罕三世策墨林活佛出生于成丰十一年（1861年），而非其他年份。     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

报业会计信息系统安全部分控制

报业会计电算化的系统安全,是报业会计信息系统的安全会计电算化的灵魂和核心,而内部控制则是保障报业会计电算化系统安全的一项重要工作。本文从报业会计电算化工作的实际出发,针对目前报业会计电算化应用的现状,结合报业会计电算化的特点和管理要求,阐述了报业会计电算化系统安全内部控制问题的必要性,并提出了如何加强报业会计电算化信息系统安全,有效进行内部控制的一些措施和办法。     

Forced to work and liberated from work

The work-welfare nexus is essential in all social policy regimes. The question is in what situations individuals should be entitled to social welfare benefits and in which situations they should be obliged to work. Social welfare law and administrative practices define mechanisms that separate the deserving poor from people able to work. This article analyses the functions and character of these "separation mechanisms" in Sweden during three periods in history: a) in rural society in the late 19th century; b) in industrial society during the successful years of the Swedish model from World War II until the late 1970s; and c) the present, including the period of welfare retrenchment and reconsideration since the early 1980s. The conclusion is that Swedish social policy has always been strongly work-oriented, but the specific form and content of the work ethic has varied under the influence of different ideologies and handled in different social policy institutions. Under specific conditions the work line has been either generous or restrictive and it has been based on structural attempts to improve the opportunities to work as well as on attempts to strongly pressure the individual to work. The work line of today is seen as an interesting attempt to combine an effort to create good work through improved work conditions and an effort to reinforce elements of work enforcement in the social insurance system.     

分歧共识展望--10余年来国内全球化理论研究述评

由于主客观方面的多种原因，我国学者对全球化若干问题和理论观点的认识存在诸多分歧：全球化是客观的自然过程，还是主观的意识形态；全球化是单一的经济全球化，还是政治、文化、社会等整体的全球化；全球化是趋同化、一体化、单质化，还是多样化、民族化、异质化；全球化是物的全球化，还是人的全球化；等等。不同思想、观点相互碰撞、交锋，在争议中逐渐达成了一些基本共识：全球化至少经济全球化是一种客观存在；全球化是一种动态的过程；经济全球化不可避免地对世界政治、文化和社会生活产生影响；全球化具有主客观性：全球化过程内在地充满着矛盾；全球化是机遇与挑战并存，利益与弊端同在；现实的全球化是不公平的；等等。正确认识我国全球化理论研究中存在的问题，有利于明确下一阶段的努力方向。     

利用光敏核不育性进行水稻轮回选择的程序探讨

本文对利用光敏核不育性进行水稻轮回选择进行了探讨。提出基本轮回选择方案和综合轮回选择方案。基本轮回选择方案是以一个光敏核不育材料为母本与多个亲本组配构成轮回选择的综合群体,而其后按常规轮回选择法进行育种的方案。综合轮回选择方案是以两个或两个以上的光敏核不育材料作为母体与多个亲本组配,在 F_2代群体中不同质源的优良植株相互交配构成综合群体,其后按基本方案进行的轮回选择。     

重视社区体育提高生活质量--无锡市社区体育现状的调查及研究

通过广泛的社会调查,笔者对无锡市社区体育现状进行了分析研究,证实了社区体育在提高现代生活质量中所起的重要作用以及在发展过程中所存在的问题,并提出了建议对策。     

论电话监听的合理性及其限度

电话监听是技术侦查手段的一种。适当运用电话监听,能够提高对抗犯罪的效能。然而,电话监听具有对公民隐私权、言论自由权等权利造成侵害的很大的危险性。因此,既要认识到其合理性,又要对其适用确定必要的限度,并在运用过程中,保障犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的基本人权和诉讼权利。     

知情权、新闻自由及立法

知情权作为公民的基本人权已成为广泛的共识,而新闻自由是实现知情权的重要途径。我国现行的法律法规对知情权的规定存在相当大的空白,而新闻自由也没有发展到一定的程度。立法上的缺陷直接影响并决定了政府监督缺位、人权保护不力等现象。我国当前应借鉴发达国家在知情权方面的立法,从而更好地保护新闻报道的自由权。     

科学执政、民主执政中的依法执政基本途径

依法执政或依法行政,作为执政方式最为直接、最为具体的基本实践环节或途径,在相当范围内反映着科学执政、民主执政的实现程度。这取决于《行政许可法》不打折扣地坚决实施,政府的依法执政职能方式从重管制向重服务转变;职能范围从“全能”向“有限”回归;职能性质由“专断”走向真正“民主”;职能习惯从主观随意转向严格的法治。