激励合约线性结构的行为合约理论解释

合约理论继承了经济学传统自利偏好假设,却忽略了公平偏好等行为心理因素。为此,在借鉴行为经济学描述公平偏好的FS模型基础上,把公平偏好引入最优激励合约设计的标准框架,以行为合约理论为工具,通过建立离散产出和离散努力模型,研究设计公平偏好下的最优激励合约。分析结果发现,引入公平偏好之后的一级最优和二级最优激励合约都是线性结构的,并且其斜率会随着公平偏好增强而增大,但不会超过0.5。这不但得到了线性结构的激励合约,而且得到了与实证研究结论相一致的关于激励合约斜率性质的理论分析结果,从而为激励合约线性结构提供了一种较合理的理论解释。     

基于基元前景交叉判断的前景价值模型

针对现有概率权重非参数确定方法存在的两方面缺陷,即因假设概率权重仅与概率有关而没有考虑概率权重受概率与结果共同影响的问题和没有针对决策者主观判断不准确性予以判断偏差有效控制的问题,通过引入两两比较思维构建了反映概率和结果对概率权重复杂影响的基元前景两两比较交叉判断新模式,并在此基础上运用误差控制优化技术提出了基元前景价值确定模型和前景优劣排序模型.数值模拟分析结果表明,应用前景优劣排序模型得到的前景排序与假定能够事先知道、能够真实反映决策者在有限理性下实际选择行为的真实排序具有高度一致性,证实了其克服现有非参数法固有缺陷的有效性.     

中华民族共同体意识指标体系的建构

铸牢中华民族共同体意识是新时代实现中华民族伟大复兴中国梦的重要方式和关键路径。通过构建中华民族共同体意识指标体系，科学深刻地把握中华民族共同体意识的真实全貌，有助于进一步评价和改善现阶段我国民族工作状况，推动中华民族共同体建设。本文从中华民族共同体意识建构的意义和原则出发，基于认知体悟-情感信仰-行为倾向三维结构，结合内隐层次-外显层次两层框架，建构符合新时代中国发展特色的中华民族共同体意识指标体系。     

Greed and fear: Competitive and charitable priming in a threshold volunteer's dilemma

In the “k-volunteer's dilemma” benefit accrues to all members if at least k members volunteer, and receive nothing otherwise. We use experiments to examine (a) volunteering behavior when threshold k increases from 1 to 2, and (b) whether volunteering behavior shifts toward norms associated with one of two primed identities—charitable or competitive. We find that increasing the threshold increases an individual's probability of volunteering, but the likelihood of good provision is lower. Neither priming affects volunteering behavior when k = 1, but competitive priming effectively increases volunteering when k = 2. Both greed and fear of non-provision appear to affect volunteering.     

论金融复杂性监管制度的构建

传统的行为监管模式一直是各国金融监管机构防范系统性金融风险的主要方式。然而金融市场的复杂性却为这一模式的实行及其效果带来了极大的阻碍，复杂的金融网络与构成该网络节点的各种金融机构形成了某种复杂性的“紧耦合”结构，流动性导致的风险传递性也大大加强，往往也因这一特性而产生“蝴蝶效应”。因此在后金融危机时代，监管机构亟须寻求一种并不总是针对风险行为且更富弹性的结构监管模式，以便能够在纷繁复杂的现代金融网络中实现其维护金融系统稳定的监管目标。     

服务补救程度对消费者情绪和行为意向的影响

采用情景模拟方法，以饭店服务失误和补救为例，分别测评了象征性补救、等值补救和超值补救对消费者情绪和行为意向的影响，结果发现:服务补救程度与消费者积极情绪、正面口碑传播和重购意向呈显著正相关，而与消费者消极情绪呈显著负相关；其次。获得补救消费者的积极情绪与正面口碑传播和重购意向呈显著正相关，消费者消极情绪与正面口碑传播和重购意向呈显著负相关。     

Order Stability in Supply Chains: Coordination Risk and the Role of Coordination Stock

The bullwhip effect describes the tendency for the variance of orders in supply chains to increase as one moves upstream from consumer demand. We report on a set of laboratory experiments with a serial supply chain that tests behavioral causes of this phenomenon, in particular the possible influence of coordination risk. Coordination risk exists when individuals' decisions contribute to a collective outcome and the decision rules followed by each individual are not known with certainty, for example, where managers cannot be sure how their supply chain partners will behave. We conjecture that the existence of coordination risk may contribute to bullwhip behavior. We test this conjecture by controlling for environmental factors that lead to coordination risk and find these controls lead to a significant reduction in order oscillations and amplification. Next, we investigate a managerial intervention to reduce the bullwhip effect, inspired by our conjecture that coordination risk contributes to bullwhip behavior. Although the intervention, holding additional on‐hand inventory, does not change the existence of coordination risk, it reduces order oscillation and amplification by providing a buffer against the endogenous risk of coordination failure. We conclude that the magnitude of the bullwhip can be mitigated, but that its behavioral causes appear robust.     

Revenue and Cost Management for Remanufactured Products

This paper considers pricing and remanufacturing strategy of a firm that decides to offer both new and remanufactured versions of its product in the market and is concerned with demand cannibalization. We present a model of demand cannibalization and a behavioral study that estimates a key modeling parameter: a fraction of consumers who switch from new to remanufactured product. As we show, this fraction has an inverted‐U shape, and, thus, the underlying consumer behavior cannot be modeled using the standard methodologies that rely on consumers' willingness to pay (WTP). We find that by incorporating the inverted‐U‐shaped consumer behavior, the firm remanufactures under broader conditions, charges a much lower price, and typically remanufactures more units—leading to an increase of profits from remanufacturing by up to a factor of two as compared with making decisions based on the WTP only. Lastly, we find that the behavior of the low‐price market segment plays an important role because the firm reacts to it differently than the WTP‐based logic would suggest.     

历史视野下人工智能流派与知识产权法的关系

人工智能的流派大体上可分为符号主义、联结主义和行为主义,它们在历史上与知识产权法各自存在相应的联系.20世纪50年代开始的符号主义人工智能以符号化的知识表征和逻辑推理为主要特点,客观上为知识产权法统一本质的概括提供了新的理论,并可以进行知识产权法专家系统的建构.20世纪80年代兴起的联结主义人工智能以模拟人脑的神经网络和学习过程为主要特点,与知识产权法具有共同的"鼓励学习"宗旨,又在专利客体、创造性审查、创新本质界定和法律伦理等方面提出了挑战.与互联网联系更加密切的行为主义人工智能强调智能行为是适应周围环境的进化行为,其契合了网络时代知识产权立法一定程度的"行为规制"转向,也对相关主体的权利博弈、保护对象的进化升级、智能交互行为的法律规制等带来了挑战.不同流派的人工智能既是知识产权法的调整对象又是其完善工具,它们应当彼此进行深度融合.