Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

Home and school influences on the behavioral and academic outcomes of low-income children of color

Framed within contextual systems model, this study examines how home and school operate together to shape behavioral and academic outcomes for 544 low-income African American (56%) and Latino/a (44%) elementary school-aged children (mean age?=?7.88 years, SD?=?1.46, 50% male). Using data from Welfare, Children, & Families Study: A Three City Study and multiple group path analysis, we found that for children in kindergarten through third grade, the adequacy of the home resources was positively related to applied problem scores (e.g. math literacy) and negatively associated with externalizing behavior. For fourth- to sixth-graders, the adequacy of classroom resources was negatively associated with applied problem scores. For both age groups positive teacher–child relational quality was also a positive predictor of externalizing behavior. Results revealed that barriers to parental involvement in school were a negative predictor of applied problem scores for low-income children in early and later elementary school. Implications for policy and practice aimed at strengthening opportunities for children and families from marginalized communities are discussed.     

基于ISM模型的农村宽带使用影响因素研究

促进农村宽带使用是推进农业信息化的重要内容,是实现农业现代化的重要手段.电信运营商是农村宽带服务的供给者,从运营商角度探讨农村宽带使用影响因素,构建影响宽带使用的解释结构模型,对各影响因素进行层次分析.研究表明：宽带资费、宽带接入终端的价格和运营商提供服务的质量是影响宽带使用的直接因素,网络速度、技术培训和政府支持等是中间因素,宽带技术先进性是根本因素.因此,为推动农村宽带的使用,电信运营商应该主动降低宽带资费、降低终端价格、提高宽带服务质量和加强技术创新.     

Parenting Style,Child Emotion Regulation and Behavioral Problems: The Moderating Role of Cultural Values in Australia and Indonesia

Abstract

Research has shown that the congruence of parenting styles with cultural values, rather than parenting styles alone, impacts child adjustment. This study examined if parents’ cultural values moderate the relationships between parenting styles and child outcomes across both an individualist culture (Australia) and a collectivist culture (Indonesia). Three hundred and eighty-seven parents of 2–10-year-old children from both countries reported their parenting styles, the importance of the collectivistic values (security, conformity, and tradition), and their child's emotion regulation and behavioral problems. In both countries, authoritative parenting was associated with higher child emotion regulation and lower levels of behavioral problems, and authoritarian parenting was associated with lower child emotion regulation and higher levels of behavioral problems. Although cultural values did not moderate the relationship between authoritarian parenting and child adjustment, in both countries greater importance placed on tradition attenuated the positive effect of authoritative parenting on child outcomes.     

Setting socially mediated engagement parameters: A topic modeling and text analytic approach to examining polarized discourses on Gillette’s campaign

Opinions on social and political issues can be easily polarized in socially mediated contexts. Using an inductive topic modeling and text analytical approach, the study analyzes more than 100,000 original tweets on polarized discussions on Gillette’s controversial campaign addressing toxic masculinity. Results suggest that influencers serve as ideological hyper-prototypes that attract significant attention equally from supporters and detractors, while hashtags and users’ reference of current events span the conversations across multiple contexts. Study results also indicate that horizontal information cascades from external ideologically centered sources that serve users’ identity and ideological signaling are a potential contributor of discourse polarization. Based on the study results, an identity- and representation-based approach to understanding socially mediated discourses is proposed, and four parameters of socially mediated engagement identified to further theorize engagement for public relations research in digital contexts.     

感知风险对在线旅游产品购买意愿的影响分析

旅游电子商务发展迅猛,互联网购物平台的虚拟性和远程性强化了消费者感知风险,它也成为影响旅游电子商务发展的重要因素之一.文章聚焦消费者感知风险,运用SPSS 19.0及AMOS 21.0软件,构建以5个维度的感知风险为自变量、购买意愿为因变量、信任为调节变量的结构方程模型,探讨变量间相关关系.结果发现:感知风险对信任的影响差异较大,仅经济风险感知与信任呈显著负相关;感知风险对购买意愿总效应皆呈负相关;信任作为中介变量存在明显的调节作用,有效地降低了感知风险对购买意愿的负向影响.     

Examining multiplicity and dynamics of publics’ crisis narratives with large-scale Twitter data

The new reality of networked publics on social media calls for crisis communication practitioners and researchers to understand the narratives generated by publics on social media during organizational crises. As social media publics possess diverse, unique characteristics and communicative needs during a crisis, they form interpretative communities and co-create various symbolic interpretations of the crisis. Extending the public-centric and narrative perspective to the context of social media crises, we examined what crisis narratives were constructed by social media publics (i.e., multiplicity) and how these narratives changed by crisis stages (i.e., dynamics). Using topic modelling based on large-scale Twitter data of the Chipotle E. coli crisis (N?=?40,610), we identified ten narratives subsumed under two themes (i.e., sharing-based and conversation-based) based on publics’ social constructions of their perceived risks and crisis experience. On the one hand, sharing-based narratives, heavily impacted by publics’ shared media coverage, reflected media crisis narratives and salient risk perceptions aligning with the news agenda. On the other hand, conversation-based narratives, fueled by publics’ opinion expression and emotional venting, demonstrated publics’ interpretations of their experience with the organization in the crisis with less salient but more diversified risk perceptions. Crisis managers are recommended to produce and deliver compelling narratives resonating with different groups of social media publics during crises.     

Harm reduction for cannabis: Factor analysis of a protective behavioral strategies survey

Objective: To examine the psychometric properties of a measure of cannabis-specific Protective Behavioral Strategies (PBS), which assesses ways in which students may reduce cannabis-related risk. Participants: Respondents to the American College Health Association – National College Health Assessment II (N = 580) during Spring 2015. Methods: Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling (ESEM) were used to identify and replicate the factor structure of the measure. Results: Results support a four-factor model (Respiratory Health, Frequency/Quantity, Socializing, and General Health) with close approximate fit (Χ² (310) = 565.96, p < .001, RMSEA = .038 (.033, .043; 90% CI), CFI = .961, TLI = .929, SRMR = .033). Support for the convergent validity and construct validity of the measure was also found. Conclusions: This is the initial step in the development of a standard, psychometrically validated measure of cannabis PBS that has the potential to inform future research and interventions.     

Opinions toward suicide: Cross-national evaluation of cultural and religious effects on individuals

This study evaluates the role that religious and cultural values have on individual opinions toward suicide worldwide. Using multilevel modeling with data from the fourth wave of the World Values Survey (42,299 individuals in 43 countries), the current study is designed to analyze the effect of individual (i.e., micro-level), and country (i.e., macro-level) characteristics on opinions toward suicide. Specifically, cultural values, religious affiliation, religious importance, and church attendance are analyzed at both the individual and country levels to evaluate the impact of individual and country level effects on opinions toward suicide. The results show that individual opinions toward suicide are influenced by individual belief as well as by the cultural and religious characteristics of their country. The results suggest that evaluation of individual opinions toward controversial behavior should account for the unique and cross-interaction effects of micro- and macro-level effects.     

考虑项目关联关系的R&D网络风险传播建模与仿真

考虑同一企业内不同项目间关联关系的情况下,基于研发项目的数量将研发网络分为不同子网络。借鉴SIS模型构建了R&D网络风险传播动力学模型,并对该模型进行了数理解析与仿真分析。结果表明：R&D网络风险传播阈值是由不同子网络的拓扑结构以及企业内不同项目间的关联程度共同决定的;考虑项目关联的研发网络风险传播阈值小于不考虑关联关系的研发网络风险传播阈值;项目间关联关系的企业个数及项目间的关联程度对风险在不同子网络上的传播速度与传播范围均具有影响。该研究成果对于提高研发网络抗风险能力具有重要意义。