稳压电源的自适应去火弧技术

针对传统基于继电器控制的稳压电源在带负载工作时,档位切换常常伴随火弧现象的问题,设计了一种可广泛 应用于此类稳压电源上的自适应去火弧技术：使用光耦和多级运放完成对零点和电压电流的采样;基于单片机的10量, 实现对继电器的驱动和控制;基于RCC自激震荡原理为系统提供稳定电源;设计了稳压器的完整软件系统程序,并在软 件中应用自适应去火弧算法。实验结果表明：自适应去火弧技术,能够有效地规避火弧现象的产生,并能够根据条件作 出调整。采用自适应去火弧技术的稳压系统达到了设计目标,延长了系统工作寿命。     

Subgroup Analysis with Time‐to‐Event Data Under a Logistic‐Cox Mixture Model

Subgroup detection has received increasing attention recently in different fields such as clinical trials, public management and market segmentation analysis. In these fields, people often face time‐to‐event data, which are commonly subject to right censoring. This paper proposes a semiparametric Logistic‐Cox mixture model for subgroup analysis when the interested outcome is event time with right censoring. The proposed method mainly consists of a likelihood ratio‐based testing procedure for testing the existence of subgroups. The expectation–maximization iteration is applied to improve the testing power, and a model‐based bootstrap approach is developed to implement the testing procedure. When there exist subgroups, one can also use the proposed model to estimate the subgroup effect and construct predictive scores for the subgroup membership. The large sample properties of the proposed method are studied. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed by simulation studies. A real data example is also provided for illustration.     

Symmetrical Design of Experiment in Global Sensitivity Analysis Based on ANOVA High-dimensional Model Representation

This article reviews symmetrical global sensitivity analysis based on the analysis of variance of high-dimensional model representation. To overcome the computational difficulties and explore the use of symmetrical design of experiment (SDOE), two methods are presented. If the form of the objective function f is known, we use SDOE to estimate the symmetrical global sensitivity indices instead of Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo simulation. Otherwise, we use the observed values of the experiment to do symmetrical global sensitivity analysis. These methods are easy to implement and can reduce the computational cost. An example is given by symmetrical design of experiment.     

Bayesian estimation and influence diagnostics of generalized partially linear mixed-effects models for longitudinal data

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to obtain the joint estimates of unknown parameters, nonparametric functions and random effects in generalized partially linear mixed models (GPLMMs), and presents three case deletion influence measures to identify influential observations based on the φ-divergence, Cook's posterior mean distance and Cook's posterior mode distance of parameters. Fisher's iterative scoring algorithm is developed to evaluate the posterior modes of parameters in GPLMMs. The first-order approximation to Cook's posterior mode distance is presented. The computationally feasible formulae for the φ-divergence diagnostic and Cook's posterior mean distance are given. Several simulation studies and an example are presented to illustrate our proposed methodologies.     

Stochastic analysis of covariance when the error distribution is long-tailed symmetric

In this study, we consider stochastic one-way analysis of covariance model when the distribution of the error terms is long-tailed symmetric. Estimators of the unknown model parameters are obtained by using the maximum likelihood (ML) methodology. Iteratively reweighting algorithm is used to compute the ML estimates of the parameters. We also propose new test statistic based on ML estimators for testing the linear contrasts of the treatment effects. In the simulation study, we compare the efficiencies of the traditional least-squares (LS) estimators of the model parameters with the corresponding ML estimators. We also compare the power of the test statistics based on LS and ML estimators, respectively. A real-life example is given at the end of the study.     

基于可信性理论的Mean-CVaR投资组合优化

选取CVaR作为风险度量指标,在可信性理论的基础上构建Mean-CVaR投资组合模型,采用Markov过程预测作为模糊变量的预期投资收益率,并设计基于模糊模拟和遗传算法的混合智能算法以求解;选取上证50成份股2013—2014年的日度历史交易数据,将该模型应用到中国证券市场,结果发现该投资组合模型与中国证券市场的环境具有一定的适应性,能够为投资者的投资决策提供依据。     

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的教育实践

为培养中国特色社会主义事业合格建设者和可靠接班人,以思政课的教育实践为例,对习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想进行研究。研究认为,习近平总书记从民族复兴、党和国家事业发展以及建设中国特色社会主义教育强国的全局出发,高度重视教师队伍建设和教育工作;作为用习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想铸魂育人的中坚力量,思政课教师要在学生心里埋下真善美的种子,始终做学生立德铸魂的引路人;思政课教师要坚持不懈地传播马克思主义科学理论,用习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想武装师生头脑,引领学生坚定理想信念,补足“精神之钙”,始终做政治清醒的明白人;要引领学生弘扬中国精神,锚定成长成才的“压舱石”,特别要在指导学生贯通学好“四史”,涵育家国情怀和培养创新实践能力方面下功夫;要引领学生培育和践行社会主义核心价值观,在学思悟践中掌握马克思主义科学思辩的方法论精髓和实践要义,切实解决好世界观、人生观、价值观这个“总开关”问题,帮助学生“扣好人生第一粒扣子”。     

民间动物造型艺术与民俗活动

民间动物造型不仅是一种民间美术,更是于广阔的社会生活层面上显示的一种民间文化现象.它的存在和发展与丰富的民俗活动紧密联系着,本文主要分析了民间动物造型艺术与生产民俗、人生礼仪民俗、信仰民俗和装饰游艺民俗的关系.     

Inference on a progressive type I interval-censored truncated normal distribution

In this paper, we consider the problem of making statistical inference for a truncated normal distribution under progressive type I interval censoring. We obtain maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters using the expectation-maximization algorithm and in sequel, we also compute corresponding midpoint estimates of parameters. Estimation based on the probability plot method is also considered. Asymptotic confidence intervals of unknown parameters are constructed based on the observed Fisher information matrix. We obtain Bayes estimators of parameters with respect to informative and non-informative prior distributions under squared error and linex loss functions. We compute these estimates using the importance sampling procedure. The highest posterior density intervals of unknown parameters are constructed as well. We present a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare the performance of proposed point and interval estimators. Analysis of a real data set is also performed for illustration purposes. Finally, inspection times and optimal censoring plans based on the expected Fisher information matrix are discussed.     

论东方史前"女神"

如果对史前女神现象按地域进行比较研究,可有东方女神和西方女神之说;从时间序列上看,东方女神的问世又晚于西方女神。这一从人类旧石器时代晚期出现贯穿整个新石器时代的“女神”崇拜现象,与当时人类婚姻、生育、生产、文化等现实生活是密不可分的。无论东西方女神,都是人类在漫长的历史发展进程中自发形成的崇拜方式,不存在相互影响乃至传承关系。它展现的是对苍天的乞求,反映的是当时作为弱势群体的人类面临生存挑战的无奈。这种相对独立存在的、具体的、单一的原始宗教崇拜和信仰,曾经占据史前社会原始先民的文化精神世界长达二三万年。到了新石器时代中晚期,女神崇拜又与巫术活动相掺杂,构成了文明起源的主要因素,对推动人类社会由野蛮向文明过渡起到了其他文明因素不可替代的作用。