基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM(1,1)模型及其应用研究

本文分析了传统FAGM（1,1）模型建模过程中存在的误差,提出了一种基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM（1,1）模型。首先,基于分数阶累加生成算子和分数阶累减生成算子建立分数阶FAGM（1,1）模型。其次,利用Simpson积分公式对FAGM（1,1）模型的背景值进行改进,建立SFAGM（1,1）模型。进一步,应用遗传算法确定SFAGM（1,1）模型的最优阶数以提高模型的预测精度。最后,以中国人均GDP为例,对比分析GM（1,1）模型、Simpson改进的GM（1,1）模型（SGM（1,1））、FAGM（1,1）模型、SFAGM（1,1）模型的模拟结果,并对"十三五"时期的人均GDP进行预测,其结果表明SFAGM（1,1）模型比GM（1,1）、SGM（1,1）、FAGM（1,1）在人均GDP的预测方面有更高的精度,"十三五"期间人均GDP年平均增长率为10.64%,到2020年达到83146.97元,是2010年人均GDP的2.69倍,以2010年的人均GDP为基准,到2020年将能够实现翻一番的目标。     

考虑多种安全库存策略的选址-库存问题研究

考虑多种安全设置策略的物流网络的选址-库存问题,不仅是选址、订货、运输和库存的集成优化,还需要考虑多种不同的安全库存设置和转运策略。因此,本文深入讨论了二级物流网络中的六种安全库存设置策略,构建了六种考虑不同安全库存设置的选址-库存模型。在考虑集中设置安全库存时,集中安全库存需要通过转载运输实现,因此需要将转载运输成本引入选址-库存模型之中,使新的选址-库存模型更加科学合理。另外,针对六种新的选址-库存模型,提出了基于个体成本差异分配的遗传算法,迭代搜索选址、分配、库存设置策略的优化组合。最后,通过数据实验验证了模型的有效性：（1）安全库存与转载运输之间存在此消彼长的背反关系;（2）安全库存设置和转载运输策略对总成本的影响取决于两种费率权重情况。本文的研究可以为二级物流网络的选址、订货和安全库存策略集成优化决策提供参考依据。     

中国共产党中央苏区时期对民间信仰的改造

中国共产党进入赣南和闽西地区后发现当地群众在心理上过度依赖民间信仰,这种情况对于建立和稳固苏维埃政权产生了碰撞和摩擦。为此,中国共产党期望通过法律制度、社会教育及发展戏剧等直接或间接的方式对民间信仰加以改造。随着群众革命意识的产生和发展,农民群众崇拜神灵的观念逐渐弱化,开始从神权的束缚中挣脱出来思考自身作为“人”的主体性。中国共产党在中央苏区时期对民间信仰的改造有利于乡村社会群众革命意识的觉醒、民间信仰活动开支的节省以及社会文明的进步。     

新时代法治信仰建设:价值指向、心理机制与实践路径

法治信仰是现代法律信仰的核心,是对社会主义法治理念的充分信任和法律制度的自觉遵从。习近平法治思想作为我国法治建设的指导思想,为新时代中国特色社会主义法治信仰建设提供了价值指向,要以“五个坚持”为指导,营造有利于法治信仰生成的政治环境。从法治信仰的心理机制来看,人民群众在对法治价值有了初步认可后,便在价值体验的催化下形成法治价值观,继而在科学公正的立法、执法、司法、守法过程中坚定法治信念,实现法治信仰的升华。要引导全体人民拥护法治、做社会主义法治的忠实崇尚者和捍卫者,在立法、执法、司法以及法治宣传等实践中大力推进新时代法治信仰建设。     

On the logic of common belief and common knowledge

The paper surveys the currently available axiomatizations of common belief (CB) and common knowledge (CK) by means of modal propositional logics. (Throughout, knowledge — whether individual or common — is defined as true belief.) Section 1 introduces the formal method of axiomatization followed by epistemic logicians, especially the syntax-semantics distinction, and the notion of a soundness and completeness theorem. Section 2 explains the syntactical concepts, while briefly discussing their motivations. Two standard semantic constructions, Kripke structures and neighbourhood structures, are introduced in Sections 3 and 4, respectively. It is recalled that Aumann's partitional model of CK is a particular case of a definition in terms of Kripke structures. The paper also restates the well-known fact that Kripke structures can be regarded as particular cases of neighbourhood structures. Section 3 reviews the soundness and completeness theorems proved w.r.t. the former structures by Fagin, Halpern, Moses and Vardi, as well as related results by Lismont. Section 4 reviews the corresponding theorems derived w.r.t. the latter structures by Lismont and Mongin. A general conclusion of the paper is that the axiomatization of CB does not require as strong systems of individual belief as was originally thought — onlymonotonicity has thusfar proved indispensable. Section 5 explains another consequence of general relevance: despite the infinitary nature of CB, the axiom systems of this paper admit of effective decision procedures, i.e., they aredecidable in the logician's sense.     

Finite mixture models with concomitant information: assessing diagnostic criteria for diabetes

The World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria for diabetes mellitus were determined in part by evidence that in some populations the plasma glucose level 2 h after an oral glucose load is a mixture of two distinct distributions. We present a finite mixture model that allows the two component densities to be generalized linear models and the mixture probability to be a logistic regression model. The model allows us to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic criteria as a function of covariates and to estimate them in the absence of an external standard. Sensitivity is the probability that a test indicates disease conditionally on disease being present. Specificity is the probability that a test indicates no disease conditionally on no disease being present. We obtained maximum likelihood estimates via the EM algorithm and derived the standard errors from the information matrix and by the bootstrap. In the application to data from the diabetes in Egypt project a two-component mixture model fits well and the two components are interpreted as normal and diabetes. The means and variances are similar to results found in other populations. The minimum misclassification cutpoints decrease with age, are lower in urban areas and are higher in rural areas than the 200 mg dl^-1 cutpoint recommended by the WHO. These differences are modest and our results generally support the WHO criterion. Our methods allow the direct inclusion of concomitant data whereas past analyses were based on partitioning the data.     

基于二元关系的产业关联分析方法研究

本文运用二元关系理论和Warshall算法计算产业系统中各产业之间的连通关联关系,为认识产业结构和产业关联状况提供了简便的量化分析方法。结合安徽产业系统的实例,分析了安徽产业结构的特点及产业关联状况。     

公共利益的概念建构评析 ——行政伦理学的视角

文章系统地梳理了美国行政学理论发展过程中的“公共利益”观念的变迁;批判了诸种功利主义和技治主义行政学理论对于“公共利益”的片面甚至错误的看法;主张将“公共利益”取向视为行政人必备的一种精神,一种职业信仰和终极向往。