身份与功能交互下的民间信仰景观——以青海西宁湟中县扎麻隆凤凰山为例

改革开放以后,特别是21世纪以来,“文化带动旅游,旅游搞活经济”的模式在全国已经成为常见的经济形态。在这样的大背景下,许多新建的、基于神话和民间信仰打造的旅游景观,与当地居民及海内外香客对民间信仰宗教化的理解,以及国家的宗教政策形成了一种微妙的平衡。作为一处旅游景观,扎麻隆凤凰山的九天圣都筹建于20世纪末,现已成为区域内闻名的民间信仰道场。扎麻隆凤凰山身份与功能的交互与矛盾,以及扎麻隆村权力格局对其影响无疑是值得关注和研究的现象。     

论土家族作家孙健忠小说的巫性书写

土家族作家孙健忠,后期创作了一系列具有神秘巫性色彩的小说,其致力于原始信仰的诗意表达和自然生命力的彰显,人神合一、人与动物神秘互渗、野性生命、本真人性、生殖崇拜等种种土家族巫文化元素渗透于作品之中,其巫性思维下的叙事方法则带给读者神秘的阅读体验。     

基于民俗仪式与符号阐释的《大傩图》补证

《大傩图》中人物极具符号性的装饰及道具所蕴含的民俗信仰因素,可以证明此图所画为仲春民间兼有驱傩、祈雨、娱乐功能的社火表演,更名为《社火图》较准确,不更名亦可。图中人物妆饰有“溪蛮”色彩,保有南方民族融合的痕迹。以执帚者为一号人物的一般说法可能有误,领队或一号人物当为蝶冠者。他们且行且吹打,滑稽搞笑,显然领队的临时掉头导致了队伍一团混乱,但此乱非真乱,抽去表象便可见队形乃呈反“S”或“龙抬头”状,属于(何意？)太极图式,具有深刻的寓意,且能最优化集中定格12个人物,如此匠心不能不令人击节。人物衣袍多着补子,而补子至明代方形成制度,故此图断代为宋值得怀疑。人物假面黑符至今仍存在于社火及戏曲脸谱中,当为我国戏曲脸谱之早期形式。     

从哲理诠释、精神信仰到成德成人——20世纪以来“致良知”教研究的基本定位与反思

“致良知”教作为王阳明思想的重要内容,既是其讲学的立言宗旨,又是王门诸子学习、实践活动中的思想纲领。20世纪以来,关于“致良知”教的研究主要形成了哲理诠释与精神信仰两种不同诠释路径。反观20世纪以来阳明“致良知”教的两种研究取径,都不可回避一个更为本质的问题——成德成人。成德成人的德性教养既是儒学一以贯之的内在精神,更是阳明“致良知”教的本旨意涵,其意义就在转化个体生命情感、精神意志的过程中显现出人人本有且知是知非的良知。在成德成人的基础上,哲理诠释的路径蕴涵着精神信仰的价值追求,而精神信仰的路径又表现出哲理诠释的普遍性面相。这既关涉如何体贴阳明哲学的真精神,也向当代儒学研究提出了应当如何诠释儒学传统价值的重要问题。     

“未预结局”：一个壮族社区社神信仰的断裂与重拾

受政治、经济和文化等因素的深刻影响，处于乡村社会之中的民间信仰体系经历着两次较大规模的由断到续的过程。这个过程在很大程度上反映的是新中国成立60多年来中国民众宗教生活的状态，是一部新中国成立以来的民众宗教生活史。该研究集中对此两次“未预结局”现象进行讨论，通过其在一个壮族社区生活场景中的具体呈现，以展示出前后两次断裂与重拾的实际状况，尽力寻找这些现象背后的社会力量，以及这种力量与当地人社会生活之间的紧密关系。     

Higher-order Bayesian Approximations for Pseudo-posterior Distributions

The theory of higher-order asymptotics provides accurate approximations to posterior distributions for a scalar parameter of interest, and to the corresponding tail area, for practical use in Bayesian analysis. The aim of this article is to extend these approximations to pseudo-posterior distributions, e.g., posterior distributions based on a pseudo-likelihood function and a suitable prior, which are proved to be particularly useful when the full likelihood is analytically or computationally infeasible. In particular, from a theoretical point of view, we derive the Laplace approximation for a pseudo-posterior distribution, and for the corresponding tail area, for a scalar parameter of interest, also in the presence of nuisance parameters. From a computational point of view, starting from these higher-order approximations, we discuss the higher-order tail area (HOTA) algorithm useful to approximate marginal posterior distributions, and related quantities. Compared to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the main advantage of the HOTA algorithm is that it gives independent samples at a negligible computational cost. The relevant computations are illustrated by two examples.     

Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.     

考虑零件三维装载约束带时间窗的循环取货路径问题研究

为提高车辆的可装载性,对考虑三维装载约束带时间窗的循环取货路径问题进行研究.在给定假设与约束条件的前提下,建立该问题的多目标数学模型,并设计用于问题求解的基于改进策略的启发式算法.数值实例的计算结果表明,该算法可有效求解考虑零件三维装载约束带时间窗的循环取货路径问题;且与时间窗优先法的求解结果相比,可大幅提高车辆的可装载性,并能有效减少不同车型车辆的投入数量.     

Computation of an efficient and robust estimator in a semiparametric mixture model

In this article, we propose an efficient and robust estimation for the semiparametric mixture model that is a mixture of unknown location-shifted symmetric distributions. Our estimation is derived by minimizing the profile Hellinger distance (MPHD) between the model and a nonparametric density estimate. We propose a simple and efficient algorithm to find the proposed MPHD estimation. Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure and to compare it with other existing methods. Based on our empirical studies, the newly proposed procedure works very competitively compared to the existing methods for normal component cases and much better for non-normal component cases. More importantly, the proposed procedure is robust when the data are contaminated with outlying observations. A real data application is also provided to illustrate the proposed estimation procedure.     

Fitting competing risks data to bivariate Pareto models

This paper revisits two bivariate Pareto models for fitting competing risks data. The first model is the Frank copula model, and the second one is a bivariate Pareto model introduced by Sankaran and Nair (1993 Sankaran, P. G., and N. U. Nair. 1993. A bivariate Pareto model and its applications to reliability. Naval Research Logistics 40 (7):1013–1020. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199312)40:7%3c1013::AID-NAV3220400711%3e3.0.CO;2-7.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We discuss the identifiability issues of these models and develop the maximum likelihood estimation procedures including their computational algorithms and model-diagnostic procedures. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation. Real data are analyzed for illustration.