老龄社会背景下我国城市的政治传播研究

在我国的城市已经进入老龄化社会的大背景下,老年人群体在城市的社会稳定和经济发展中的重要性日益体现出来了.要想充分发挥城市老年人在这两个方面的积极作用,不但要确保这一群体思想政治状况的稳定,而且要切实提高他们社会参与的积极性和主动性.无疑,政治传播在这方面应当承担起不可推卸的责任和义务.鉴于城市老年人群体基本上是在社区的范围内生活和活动,就必须做好社区政治传播在社区层面的工作,促使城市老年人以积极健康的心态融入到社会之中,这也有助于提升他们的生活质量.     

Generating synthetic data to produce public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data with application to the National Health Interview Survey

Small area statistics obtained from sample survey data provide a critical source of information used to study health, economic, and sociological trends. However, most large-scale sample surveys are not designed for the purpose of producing small area statistics. Moreover, data disseminators are prevented from releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas for disclosure reasons; thus, limiting the utility of the data they collect. This research evaluates a synthetic data method, intended for data disseminators, for releasing public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data. The method replaces all observed survey values with synthetic (or imputed) values generated from a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly accounts for complex sample design features, including stratification, clustering, and sampling weights. The method is applied to restricted microdata from the National Health Interview Survey and synthetic data are generated for both sampled and non-sampled small areas. The analytic validity of the resulting small area inferences is assessed by direct comparison with the actual data, a simulation study, and a cross-validation study.     

Non parametric mixture of strictly monotone regression models

In this article, we propose the non parametric mixture of strictly monotone regression models. For implementation, a two-step procedure is derived. We further establish the asymptotic normality of the resultant estimator and demonstrate its good performance through numerical examples.     

A non-iterative posterior sampling algorithm for linear quantile regression model

In this article, a non-iterative posterior sampling algorithm for linear quantile regression model based on the asymmetric Laplace distribution is proposed. The algorithm combines the inverse Bayes formulae, sampling/importance resampling, and the expectation maximization algorithm to obtain independently and identically distributed samples approximately from the observed posterior distribution, which eliminates the convergence problems in the iterative Gibbs sampling and overcomes the difficulty in evaluating the standard deviance in the EM algorithm. The numeric results in simulations and application to the classical Engel data show that the non-iterative sampling algorithm is more effective than the Gibbs sampling and EM algorithm.     

Comparison between method of moments and entropy regularization algorithm applied to parameter estimation for mixed-Weibull distribution

Mixed-Weibull distribution has been used to model a wide range of failure data sets, and in many practical situations the number of components in a mixture model is unknown. Thus, the parameter estimation of a mixed-Weibull distribution is considered and the important issue of how to determine the number of components is discussed. Two approaches are proposed to solve this problem. One is the method of moments and the other is a regularization type of fuzzy clustering algorithm. Finally, numerical examples and two real data sets are given to illustrate the features of the proposed approaches.     

A Unified Way to Represent and Compute the Cumulative Distribution Function for Noncentral t,F, and χ2

This short article shows an unified approach to representing and computing the cumulative distribution function for noncentral t, F, and χ². Unlike the existing algorithms, which involve different expansion and/or recurrence, the new approach consistently represents all the three noncentral cumulative distribution functions as the integral of the normal cumulative distribution function and χ² density function.     

A Method of Finding Predictor Genes for a Particular Disease Using a Clustering Algorithm

Clustering Algorithms are nowadays really important tools in microarray data analysis. The different clustering algorithm generally used in biological science does not take into consideration the underlying probability distribution of the data. In this sense, they are heuristic in nature. In this work we proposed a clustering algorithm based on EM Algorithm. It gives 28% less misclassification than the K-means algorithm (which is mostly use in Bio science). We have also shown on a real data set that this algorithm can be efficiently used for detecting the genes which are responsible for a particular disease.     

The economic design of multivariate binomial EWMA VSSI control charts

Since multi-attribute control charts have received little attention compared with multivariate variable control charts, this research is concerned with developing a new methodology to employ the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) charts for m-attribute binomial processes; the attributes being the number of nonconforming items. Moreover, since the variable sample size and sampling interval (VSSI) MEWMA charts detect small process mean shifts faster than the traditional MEWMA, an economic design of the VSSI MEWMA chart is proposed to obtain the optimum design parameters of the chart. The sample size, the sampling interval, and the warning/action limit coefficients are obtained using a genetic algorithm such that the expected total cost per hour is minimized. At the end, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out to investigate the effects of the cost and the model parameters on the solution of the economic design of the VSSI MEWMA chart.     

新型“圆形监狱”——从福柯理论看网络空间的信息监控系统

科学技术极大地提高了生产力,解放了人类,促进了社会的进步和发展。科技的发展在给人类带来福音的同时也带来了一系列负面效应,这在作为当代科技成果集中体现的计算机网络空间中尤为突出。“圆形监狱”一说作为一种以空间来象征权力的理想范例和极致模板首先由边沁提出,而后福柯在《规训与惩罚》中进一步将其描述为全景敞视主义。不管从技术基础、监视模式、空间划分、权力等级等各个方面看,似乎与任何束缚、控制、权力、统治、规训无涉的新型社会空间——网络空间,却在本质上不啻另一种新型的全景敞视“圆形监狱”,实际上是处于一种无形却又无所不在的信息监控网络中,成为了当代资本主义社会的新型统治和渗透手段。因此,传统社会空间中那种明显的、赤裸裸的权力与控制并没有凭空消失,而是以更加全面隐蔽而富有迷惑性的方式渗入网络空间中。这表明,随着现代性的进程,本身作为一种人工产物的网络科技,有可能脱离人的控制而走向未知的自主发展,成为后现代资本社会的新型统治手段而具有负面效应。     

东岳信仰的人类学分析——以山西蒲县地区为个案

运用人类学的理论和方法,分析归属于国家正统祀典活动的东岳信仰,在扩布的过程中,由国家正统祀典向地方转化,并逐渐演变为地方社会的祭祀系统,享受民间祭祀,从而揭示出东岳信仰在大传统和小传统间的变化规律.