实行产业政策的合理界限分析--东亚国家和地区的经验教训及其对我们的启示

本文结合东亚大多数国家和地区推行产业政策的经验和教训,对实行产业政策的合理界限进行分析。我们主要应注意保护性政策的阶段性;注意产业政策实施中的金融安全;注意产业政策目标的单一性,等等。     

Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy–Tailed Errors

ARCH and GARCH models directly address the dependency of conditional second moments, and have proved particularly valuable in modelling processes where a relatively large degree of fluctuation is present. These include financial time series, which can be particularly heavy tailed. However, little is known about properties of ARCH or GARCH models in the heavy–tailed setting, and no methods are available for approximating the distributions of parameter estimators there. In this paper we show that, for heavy–tailed errors, the asymptotic distributions of quasi–maximum likelihood parameter estimators in ARCH and GARCH models are nonnormal, and are particularly difficult to estimate directly using standard parametric methods. Standard bootstrap methods also fail to produce consistent estimators. To overcome these problems we develop percentile–t, subsample bootstrap approximations to estimator distributions. Studentizing is employed to approximate scale, and the subsample bootstrap is used to estimate shape. The good performance of this approach is demonstrated both theoretically and numerically.     

超产权论与我国国企竞争环境的培育

超产权论认为企业产权改革只有在竞争条件下才能发挥作用，是竞争促使企业改善治理结构，创造良好绩效。国有企业改革必须协调好产权、竞争、治理机制与绩效的相互关系，在推动产权改革的同时，更要注重加速市场化建设进程，塑造竞争主体，完善市场体系，改革经营者管理制度，培育企业竞争的良性环境。