Bilateral Donors' Efforts to Assess and Manage UN Agencies' Effectiveness: Seeking a Balance between Paris Principles and Domestic Accountability

Since the turn of the century, results orientation and performance measurement have become buzzwords in development aid. Bilateral donors are increasingly concerned about the effectiveness of core‐funded UN specialised agencies, funds and programmes, through which they channel a substantial part of their funds. While the logic for increased monitoring is clear, it is less evident how to assess this information for purposes of accountability, performance‐based funding and governance. This article describes the general evolution in this area and discusses two major initiatives to harmonise and align bilateral assessments, using case‐study material from three bilateral donors (Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK) with clearly diverging performance‐management cultures, and exploring the extent to which they rely upon joint and aligned initiatives.     

长三角都市圈与东盟国家贸易实证分析

从长三角都市圈与东盟双边贸易发展的理论分析、现状和特点人手,结合长三角都市圈与东盟双边贸易历年数据、贸易结合度指数、出口依存度指数以及拉动经济增长的线性回归模型等进行实证分析,得出长三角都市圈与东盟双边贸易的结构特点及发展趋势,并对促进双边贸易的扩大发展提出有效措施.     

Understanding Canonical Correlation through the General Linear Model and Principal Components

Canonical correlation has been little used and little understood, even by otherwise sophisticated analysts. An alternative approach to canonical correlation, based on a general linear multivariate model, is presented. Properties of principal component analysis are used to help explain the method. Standard computational methods for full rank canonical correlation, techniques for canonical correlation on component scores, and canonical correlation with less than full rank are discussed. They are seen to be essentially equivalent when the model equation for canonical correlation on component scores is presented. The two approaches to less than full rank situations are equivalent in some senses, but quite different in usefulness, depending on the application. An example dataset is analyzed in detail to help demonstrate the conclusions.     

Bayesian approach to estimation of intraclass correlation using reference prior

For the balanced variance component model when the intraclass correlation coefficient is of interest, Bayesian analysis is often appropriate. Berger and Bernardo’s (1992a) grouped ordering reference prior approach is used to analyze this model. The reference priors are developed and compared for the posterior inference with real and simulated data. We examine whether the reference priors satisfy the probability-matching criterion. Further, the reference prior is shown to be good in the sense of correct frequentist coverage probability of the posterior quantile.     

中日韩FTA贸易潜力研究

后金融危机时期,中日韩区域经济合作机制迈向一个新的发展阶段.中日韩三国签署国际投资协定,自由贸易区建设势在必行.本文基于较长时间跨度（1992-2011年）中日韩三国区域内贸易数据,研究三国区域内贸易总量和贸易产品结构,运用拓展贸易引力模型重点研究中日韩FTA贸易流量与发展潜力问题,实证研究结论对于加速中日韩自由贸易区建设进程,提升三国经贸合作水平具有重要意义.     

国有控股、市场竞争与股权激励效应————基于倾向得分匹配法的实证研究

结合代理理论和制度理论,运用倾向得分匹配法,研究国有控股和市场竞争这两种基本制度环境对股权激励与企业绩效相关关系的影响机制和作用效果发现：股权激励整体上存在激励效应,能显著提高企业绩效;国有控股削弱了股权激励的实施效果,相对于非国有企业,股权激励对国有企业的激励效应并不显著;产品市场竞争强化了股权激励与企业绩效的正向关系,竞争程度越高,股权激励效果越好;市场竞争一定程度上提高了国有企业股权激励的实施效果,在竞争程度高的国企样本中,股权激励显现出了显著的激励效应。研究结论表明,制度环境是股权激励发挥作用的重要前提,深化国有企业产权改革、完善产品市场竞争是提高股权激励效果的关键。     

中美经贸关系的新格局及其对双边关系的影响

本文认为,当前中美经贸关系出现了三大特征,即经贸纷争常态化,美国对华经贸政策安全化,相互依存深化和对称化.中美经贸关系的上述特点对双边关系的影响主要表现为:经贸关系将继续支撑双边关系的发展,同时也是中美关系一个主要的纷争之源,中国在双边关系中的博弈能力得到提升,美国在非经贸问题上对华使用经济杠杆的可能性和有效性都会下降;但是由于中国对美国的总体依赖仍然大于美国对中国的依赖,美国仍会不时地利用经济杠杆来影响中国的经贸政策,以促进美国的经济利益.     

SIFT匹配算法在视频拼接中的优化应用

在视频拼接中．由于视频帧存在噪音大,光线变化、模糊以及旋转等情况,传统的SIFT算法处理后出现了较多的错误匹配点时。为了提高匹配的准确率,提出了一种优化的SIFT算法：在SIFT算法的图像匹配过程中,计算所有匹配点对所确定的直线的偏转角度,设置一个角度误差范围,对匹配点对进行角度误差约束筛选,根据得到的匹配点对时偏移量进行精确计算,实现视频帧的融合。最后通过大量实验,验证了优化后的SIFT算法更加准确地对视频帧进行匹配拼接,消除了重复区域拼接的模糊性,符合视频拼接对于偏移量计算的精确要求,实现了视频拼接的实时性和高效性。     

IT服务供需双边匹配的模糊多目标决策方法

描述了IT服务外包中的供给方与需求方的双边匹配决策问题。为了解决该问题,针对IT服务的供给方和需求方分别给出的语言满意度评价信息,将语言评价信息转化为三角模糊数并进行多指标信息的集结运算。在此基础上,考虑以供给方和需求方双方满意度最大为目标,构建了IT服务供需双边匹配的模糊多目标优化模型,并采取将模糊多目标优化模型转化为单目标线性规划模型的方式进行求解得到匹配结果。实例计算表明,提出的方法具有可行性和实用性。     

电子易货资源匹配模型研究

针对电子易货市场资源匹配问题,通过系统分析易货市场中资源分类情况以及匹配的目标要求,得到资源匹配的数学模型;运用网络流理论对问题模型进行转化,把资源匹配数量最大的目标转换成有流量限制的网络最小费用流问题,依此建立网络模型;最后,以制造业和服务业之间的易货进行案例分析建模,用winQSB软件求解验证。结果表明,该模型的应用提高了易货资源匹配的运算效率和准确性。