Almost Consistent Estimation of Panel Probit Models with “Small” Fixed Effects

We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small Tand large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent variable conditional on explanatory variables and on the fixed effect. The estimators differ w.r.t. the choice of instruments and whether they use trimming to reduce the bias or not. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare these estimators with pooled probit and conditional logit estimators for different data generating processes. The results show that the proposed estimators outperform these competitors in several situations.     

B股与H股及红筹股之间的溢出效应与信息流动

运用向量GARCH-M模型检验了B股与H股及红筹股之间的溢出效应与信息流动.实证结果表明:红筹股对沪深市B股、H股对沪市B股的收益和波动溢出效应均显著存在,而反向的溢出效应均不显著,表明信息是从红筹股向沪深市B股、从H股向沪市B股单向流动的;深市B股与H股之间相互的收益溢出效应均存在,而波动溢出效应均不存在,信息在H股和深市B股之间的流动情况不明显;在信息流动过程中,红筹股始终处于信息领先地位.     

20世纪40年代四川省新县制下地方自治的施行

本文探讨了 2 0世纪 4 0年代四川省新县制下的基层社会控制及民主的实际状况 ,指出四川省在当时所推行的基层地方自治仍未摆脱受行政控制的从属地位 ,行政工作先于、多于自治工作 ,“民意机构”非民众直接选举产生并且多反映地方有力者的意志 ,它在解决民众最感痛苦的诸如“摊筹派募”、“征丁”以及“吏治腐败”等问题上的作用十分有限。国民政府在基层所实行的“以官治求自治”的所谓地方自治政策 ,非但未能发展地方事业 ,反而从根本上动摇了其统治基础     

An evaluation of the childhood family structure measures from the sixth wave of the British Household Panel Survey

Summary.  The paper performs an evaluation of the data that were collected in the sixth wave of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) on childhood family structure. After comparing such data with a large number of studies by using external sources, we find that the BHPS data overestimate the proportion of people who report an experience of life in a non-intact family during childhood by about 10%. Although an explanation based on recall error that deteriorates with the age of the BHPS respondents is possible, the overestimation is likely to be accounted for by non-ignorable attrition that may affect most of the comparison studies based on longitudinal data. Conversely, comparisons with other independent measurements from the BHPS itself reveal that the wave 6 data underestimate the proportion of young people who have lived at least part of their childhood in a non-intact family by about 8%. The probability of disagreement between these two sets of measures is strongly associated with poor interview characteristics, which may affect the comparison measure more than the wave 6 measure. Despite such differences, there is therefore a substantial degree of similarity between the family structure information that was collected in the sixth wave of the BHPS and the host of highly diverse records against which it has been compared.     

新时代中华优秀传统文化进教材的理性审思

中华优秀传统文化是中华民族的精神命脉。推动中华优秀传统文化融入教材,对于建设培根铸魂、启智增慧的新时代中国特色高质量教材体系,培养具有高度文化自信的社会主义建设者与接班人具有重要意义。中华传统文化教材建设百年来经历了从“沉寂”到“复兴”的曲折发展历程,反映出中华优秀传统文化顽强的生命力。在中国特色社会主义新时代,中华优秀传统文化“进教材”既是一种注重文化传承与精神引领的知识建构,也是一种凝聚文化教育合力的协同发展。新时代中华优秀传统文化教材建设,应以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,坚持创造性转化与创新性发展的基本方向,探索教材基于新时代语境的现代化诠释、基于全球化语境的本土化编写的发展向度,塑造中华民族优秀文化形象,开发数字教材资源,让中华优秀传统文化渗透、融入教材。新时代中华优秀传统文化教材建设也应强化规范意识,积极规避“人文关怀式微”的价值危机、“学科视野窄化”的认识误区、“教材泛德育化”的理念偏差以及“教育逻辑缺失”的路向偏移等失范问题,增强责任之心,勇于担当作为,落实立德树人根本任务,在固本与创新中肩负起推动中华优秀传统文化传承和发展的历史使命。     

A Multivariate Model for Repeated Failure Time Measurements

A parametric multivariate failure time distribution is derived from a frailty-type model with a particular frailty distribution. It covers as special cases certain distributions which have been used for multivariate survival data in recent years. Some properties of the distribution are derived: its marginal and conditional distributions lie within the parametric family, and association between the component variates can be positive or, to a limited extent, negative. The simple closed form of the survivor function is useful for right-censored data, as occur commonly in survival analysis, and for calculating uniform residuals. Also featured is the distribution of ratios of paired failure times. The model is applied to data from the literature     

癌症基因组研究信息披露的伦理探讨

癌症基因组计划是当前研究热点,存在诸多伦理、法律及社会问题,如何有效地保障基因组研究参与者的知情同意是值得关注的内容。信息披露(disclosure)作为知情同意的第一要素具备深厚的伦理基础,然而与传统医学研究相比,癌症基因组研究由于其目的与内容的特殊性,研究中信息披露的内容和标准尚存在诸多伦理问题,需要深入探讨。     

不同类型问题口语交际效果的语用分析

对英语问题或问句的分类和分析研究多是从语法或课堂教学的角度,把问题重新分类,并从语用的角度运用礼貌原则、言语行为理论、话语分析理论、语境理论和面子理论等分析不同问题类型可能会引起的不同交际效果,更能帮助英语学习者提高交际能力。     

后WTO时期外资银行对中资银行影响分析及其路径选择

后WTO时期,我国金融业开放程度不断加深,外资银行正以前所未有的深度融入我国金融体系。外资银行的进入,将从总体上提升我国银行系统效率,但同时也不可避免地带来客户资源、银行业务、服务手段、人力资源等方面的冲击,为此,应通过完善金融体系、提高整体实力、培育新生力量及加强合作等策略增强中资银行抗击外资银行的实力,引导中资银行健康发展。     

Practical Maximum Pseudolikelihood for Spatial Point Patterns(with Discussion)

This paper describes a technique for computing approximate maximum pseudolikelihood estimates of the parameters of a spatial point process. The method is an extension of Berman & Turner's (1992) device for maximizing the likelihoods of inhomogeneous spatial Poisson processes. For a very wide class of spatial point process models the likelihood is intractable, while the pseudolikelihood is known explicitly, except for the computation of an integral over the sampling region. Approximation of this integral by a finite sum in a special way yields an approximate pseudolikelihood which is formally equivalent to the (weighted) likelihood of a loglinear model with Poisson responses. This can be maximized using standard statistical software for generalized linear or additive models, provided the conditional intensity of the process takes an 'exponential family' form. Using this approach a wide variety of spatial point process models of Gibbs type can be fitted rapidly, incorporating spatial trends, interaction between points, dependence on spatial covariates, and mark information.