Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers

Laboratory and field studies of time preference find that discount rates are much greater in the short‐run than in the long‐run. Hyperbolic discount functions capture this property. This paper solves the decision problem of a hyperbolic consumer who faces stochastic income and a borrowing constraint. The paper uses the bounded variation calculus to derive the Hyperbolic Euler Relation, a natural generalization of the standard Exponential Euler Relation. The Hyperbolic Euler Relation implies that consumers act as if they have endogenous rates of time preference that rise and fall with the future marginal propensity to consume (e.g., discount rates that endogenously range from 5% to 41% for the example discussed in the paper).     

政策过程的绩效损失分析——以农村中小企业融资政策为例

随着经济学上由完全理性向有限理性过渡,政策学领域也逐步引入有限理性、甚至超理性的政策理念。政策过程的供需差异是未被满足的政策需求,分为供需双方存在信息交流的显性差异和未发生信息交流的隐性需求,其中隐性需求往往被忽视。政策过程的绩效损失主要来源于信息未达的沟通盲点、缺乏良好预期的沟通断点以及外在约束造成的行为偏差。通过对政策过程的绩效损失进行数理分析和实测,提出了以下补救措施:研制政策要科学化、规范化;管理政策信息要专门化;了解微观主体的行为约束,合理设定政策目标;提高政策受众的参与度,下情上达。     

关于Ramsey语句的一个注记

F·P·Ramsey(拉姆西)发现,应用二阶逻辑对一个有有限数目公理的科学理论T而言,T中的理论性词项可以被消除。将T的公理用Ramsey语句来代替可以保持T的所有的经验推论。狭义而言,Ramsey方法通过对理论性词项的意义存而不论,从而提供了一种处理该类词项的逻辑技巧;广义而论,Ramsey方法强调对对象之间的关系的描述,而对对象的本质的解释存而不论。本文通过比较Ramsey方法与逻辑经验主义对运算和解释的区分以及对近代科学方法论的若干思考而得到这一对Ramsey方法的广义理解。     

Time,bounded utility,and the St. Petersburg paradox

The assumption of bounded utility function resolves the St. Petersburg paradox. The justification for such a bound is provided by Brito, who argues that limited time will bound the utility function. However, a reformulated St. Petersburg game, which is played for both money and time, effectively circumvents Brito's justification for a bound. Hence, no convincing justification for bounding the utility function yet exists.     

Are More Alternatives Better for Decision-Makers? A Note on the Role of Decision Cost

While the traditional economic wisdom believes that an individual will become better off by being given a larger opportunity set to choose from, in this paper we question this belief and build a formal theoretical model that introduces decision costs into the rational decision process. We show, under some reasonable conditions, that a larger feasible set may actually lower an individual’s level of satisfaction. This provides a solid economic underpinning for the Simon prediction.     

考虑参照依赖的企业合作创新演化博弈分析

合作创新具有实现资源互补,降低创新风险,提高创新成功可能性的优势,但是在实践中企业间的合作关系却难以保持稳定性。本文基于有限理性假设,改变传统的期望效用理论,引入前景理论中的参照点概念,分析创新主体的效用,构建合作创新博弈收益感知矩阵,并基于该矩阵对合作创新博弈双方的行为进行演化博弈分析,为保持合作创新的持续性提出建议。研究表明,企业对创新收益的感知价值、合作创新成本、收益分配和成本分担等因素是合作稳定性的重要影响因素,增强企业对长期的战略性合作创新收益的感知,引导企业建立正确的创新风险认知,控制合作创新的交易成本等措施将有利于增强合作创新的稳定性。     

Confidence intervals for variance component ratios in unbalanced linear mixed models

Methods for constructing confidence intervals for variance component ratios in general unbalanced mixed models are developed. The methods are based on inverting the distribution of the signed root of the log-likelihood ratio statistic constructed from either the restricted maximum likelihood or the full likelihood. As this distribution is intractable, the inversion is rather based on using a saddlepoint approximation to its distribution. Apart from Wald's exact method, the resulting intervals are unrivalled in terms of achieving accuracy in overall coverage, underage, and overage. Issues related to the proper “reference set” with which to judge the coverage as well as issues connected to variance ratios being nonnegative with lower bound 0 are addressed. Applications include an unbalanced nested design and an unbalanced crossed design.     

高管团队组合效应的多阶段递推识别:模型与分析

文章将决策者个人有限理性的概念拓展到团队场合,并归纳整理了影响高管团队(TMT)有限理性的三类屏蔽效应.在归纳高管团队属性效应理论研究(Upper Echelons Perspective)进展的基础上,提出了面向企业战略行为分析的高管团队组合效应的多阶段递推识别问题.以我国现阶段企业的专用性投资行为为分析对象,通过多阶段递推识别分析归纳出导致我国企业专用性投资弱化的典型TMT属性特征和相应的情境特征.     

注册会计师审计独立性之应然与实然

注册会计师审计独立性是注册会计师取信于民的根本,但现实中有关审计独立性的责难却是随处可觅。是注册会计师的独立性真正有问题,还是另有隐情?本文借鉴心理学的相关研究结果,从有限理性、有限意志力、有限意识、有限道德和自我服务偏见等因素分析了注册会计师的独立性困境问题,指出这些问题往往不是注册会计师的道德问题,而是其审计信息处理过程中的认识局限性问题。     

A flexible procedure for formulating probability distributions on the unit interval with applications

Abstract

In this paper, we present a flexible mechanism for constructing probability distributions on a bounded intervals which is based on the composition of the baseline cumulative probability function and the quantile transformation from another cumulative probability distribution. In particular, we are interested in the (0, 1) intervals. The composite quantile family of probability distributions contains many models that have been proposed in the recent literature and new probability distributions are introduced on the unit interval. The proposed methodology is illustrated with two examples to analyze a poverty dataset in Peru from the Bayesian paradigm and Likelihood points of view.