On the need for increased rigour and care in the conduct and interpretation of network meta‐analyses in drug development

The rise over recent years in the use of network meta‐analyses (NMAs) in clinical research and health economic analysis is little short of meteoric driven, in part, by a desire from decision makers to extend inferences beyond direct comparisons in controlled clinical trials. But is the increased use and reliance of NMAs justified? Do such analyses provide a reliable basis for the relative effectiveness assessment of medicines and, in turn, for critical decisions relating to healthcare access and provisioning? And can such analyses also be used earlier, as part of the evidence base for licensure? Despite several important publications highlighting inherently unverifiable assumptions underpinning NMAs, these assumptions and associated potential for serious bias are often overlooked in the reporting and interpretation of NMAs. A more cautious, and better informed, approach to the use and interpretation of NMAs in clinical research is warranted given the assumptions that sit behind such analyses. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

双边投资协定的经济分析

在阐明关于投资的两种不同经济理论后,对双边投资协定的内容展开经济分析。双边投资协定能推进国际投资的流动,对促进国际经济交流具有重要意义。     

尤拉屯高产气井完井管柱振动损伤研究

针对尤拉屯气田典型管柱在生产过程中高速气流诱发的振动问题，展开了管柱振动损伤研究，研究中采用了 大型有限元分析软件ANSYS 建立高产气井带封隔器油管柱振动的有限元模型。利用该模型对管柱进行了振动分析， 分析结果表明：离封隔器越远振动位移、速度和加速度的幅值越大。详细地研究了全井段油管柱的轴向应力变化、屈 曲损伤和中和点变化，同时分析了不同位置和不同产量下，屈曲管柱与套管柱的接触压力随时间的变化关系，为管柱 摩擦磨损损伤机理的深入研究提供了定量的数据。最后对管柱进行了疲劳寿命预测，为管柱振动损伤预防措施的提 出提供了理论基础。     

Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model

Expansionary and contractionary effects of exchange rate shock in developing economies has been the subject of an extensive debate but the results are inconclusive. This study has been conducted to examine the repercussions of unexpected exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistan economy. Unlike the previous literature, this study utilizes a fairly large macroeconometric model constructed on the basis of Cowles Commission structural approach. The study explores that expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation explained by the traditional theories of open economy macroeconomics persists only for one fiscal year but these theories don’t work in the long-run as contractionary phase starts in the subsequent years. Monetary and fiscal authorities are not neutral and contractionary policy is taken in response to depreciation which pushes the economy into recession. Stagflationary effects are clearly observed. However, improvement in foreign sector prolongs for a number of years and policy makers would have to face a trade-off between opposite response of output and current account balance. Hence, unexpected depreciation generates sharp cyclical fluctuations on demand which immediately transmit to supply side of the economy. In line with the views of “New Structuralists”, exchange rate depreciation may be considered as a source of shock rather than shock absorber in the case of Pakistan economy. Although this study is specifically estimated for the Pakistan economy, authors believe that their methodological contributions and results are of wider importance for policy makers in developing countries.     

Productive Engagement Among Older Americans: Prevalence,Patterns, and Implications for Public Policy

This study estimates the prevalence of productive engagement among adults aged 60 and over residing in the United States over a nine-year period. We analyze three waves of data from the Americans' Changing Lives Study, which allows the findings to describe the non-institutionalized older American population. Focusing upon five activities—formal paid employment, irregular paid work, unpaid volunteerism, caregiving, and informal assistance to others—we identify changes in the engagement rates, examine the extent to which engagement occurs through single or multiple concurrent activities, and document intra-individual patterns of engagement within and across forms of productive activity, including the continuity, initiation, and cessation of involvement. The findings reveal that late-life productive engagement is widespread, with the majority of older individuals involved in multiple forms of activity concurrently. Non–market-based activities such as caregiving, informal assistance, and volunteering are most prevalent. Initiation and cessation of activities are common and yield more complex patterns and lower rates of non-participation than are revealed in cross-sectional analyses. Time spent in productive engagement is highly variable and exhibits an overall decline across time. We conclude by highlighting policy strategies to increase the availability and quality of opportunities for productive engagement and promote planning for engagement in late life.     

Class,culture and politics: on the relevance of a Bourdieusian concept of class in political sociology

Even though contemporary discussions of class have moved forward towards recognizing a multidimensional concept of class, empirical analyses tend to focus on cultural practices in a rather narrow sense, that is, as practices of cultural consumption or practices of education. As a result, discussions within political sociology have not yet utilized the merits of a multidimensional conception of class. In light of this, the article suggests a comprehensive Bourdieusian framework for class analysis, integrating culture as both a structural phenomenon co‐constitutive of class and as symbolic practice. Further, the article explores this theoretical framework in a multiple correspondence analysis of a Danish survey, demonstrating how class and political practices are indeed homologous. However, the analysis also points at several elements of field autonomy, and the concluding discussion therefore suggests the need for further studies.     

Tenderness under the White Dress——Analyses of Emily Dickinson's love poems

Emily Dickinson was one of the preeminent poets in American history. This reclusive poetess wrote 1775 poems in her whole life. Most of her poems are about death and immortality, but she once wrote som...     

The Construction of Sexual Identities in an Online Gay,Lesbian, and Bisexual Bulletin Board System

An online bulletin board system was used to focus on how sexual minority gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) individuals perceive and display their individual and collective sexual identities through textual and visual communication processes. While exploring sexual identity construction, four major themes emerged: “coming out,” separation, equality and civil rights, and misconceptions. Concepts of identity negotiation theory help to conceptualize the observed sexual identity construction processes. This work provides insight into how GLB individuals around the world perceive, construct, and perform their sexuality as well as how they perceive the majority culture as viewing them.     

Plastic and immobile: Unequal intergenerational mobility by genetic sensitivity score within sibling pairs

Contrary to traditional biological arguments, the differential susceptibility model suggests genotype may moderate rather than mediate parent-child economic similarity. Using family fixed effects models of Add Health sibling data, I investigate the relationship between an index of sensitive genotypes and intergenerational mobility. Full, same sex sibling comparisons hold constant parental characteristics and address the non-random distribution of genotype that reduces internal validity in nationally representative samples. Across multiple measures of young adult financial standing, those with more copies of sensitive genotypes achieve lower economic outcomes than their sibling if they are from a low income context but fare better from a high income context. This genetic sensitivity to parental income entails lower intergenerational mobility. Results support the differential susceptibility model and contradict simplistic genetic explanations for intergenerational inequality, suggesting sensitive genotypes are not inherently positive or negative but rather increase dependence on parental income and reduce mobility.     

邮政职工的心理剖析及疏导

本文通过调查研究邮政职工的心理状况 ,对邮电分营这一特定的历史条件下邮政职工的心理进行剖析 ,并提出若干疏导办法 ,为建设一支稳定的邮政职工队伍提供参考