经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

A spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average model for solar radiation

Summary.  To investigate the variability in energy output from a network of photovoltaic cells, solar radiation was recorded at 10 sites every 10 min in the Pentland Hills to the south of Edinburgh. We identify spatiotemporal auto-regressive moving average models as the most appropriate to address this problem. Although previously considered computationally prohibitive to work with, we show that by approximating using toroidal space and fitting by matching auto-correlations, calculations can be substantially reduced. We find that a first-order spatiotemporal auto-regressive (STAR(1)) process with a first-order neighbourhood structure and a Matern noise process provide an adequate fit to the data, and we demonstrate its use in simulating realizations of energy output.     

Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model

The ability to infer parameters of gene regulatory networks is emerging as a key problem in systems biology. The biochemical data are intrinsically stochastic and tend to be observed by means of discrete-time sampling systems, which are often limited in their completeness. In this paper we explore how to make Bayesian inference for the kinetic rate constants of regulatory networks, using the stochastic kinetic Lotka-Volterra system as a model. This simple model describes behaviour typical of many biochemical networks which exhibit auto-regulatory behaviour. Various MCMC algorithms are described and their performance evaluated in several data-poor scenarios. An algorithm based on an approximating process is shown to be particularly efficient.     

以旅游业为龙头推进西部地区城镇化建设

城镇化是人类社会发展和进步的必然趋势 ,是衡量一定地域经济社会发展水平和文明程度的重要标志。针对我国西部地区以农村人口为主和城镇与农村并存的特点 ,西部要发展就必须找准突破口 ,加强地方经济建设 ,推进城镇化进程     

Optimal scaling of Metropolis algorithms: Heading toward general target distributions

The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.     

论产业化时代的精神文化生产

文章结合十六大文件的深入学习,透视了当代文化产业遭遇的各种现实尴尬,并对一系列相关的理论与实践问题展开了学理性追问,包括当代西方马克思主义美学和19世纪的传统马克思主义美学的相关论述,着重分析了当代文化生产的四个重要特征:即不间断的意识形态再生产的商品化特征,以符号作手段以传媒为载体进行市场流通的特征,个性化与标准化及原创性与复制性的综合过程特征,在多次体验消费中获得价值增值的特征。     

我国私人银行业务发展探讨

在西方发达国家已有相当长历史的私人银行业务,适应环境的变迁发生了一系列新的变化;我国商业银行私人银行业务较之西方发达国家明显滞后,但近年来发展的步伐显著加快;蓬勃发展中的我国商业银行私人银行业务目前存在着一些不容忽视的问题;我国私人银行业务正处于成长期,具有无限的市场潜力和广阔的发展前景。     

浅析雇佣关系中的商业秘密保护与竞业禁止制度

商业秘密能够给权利人带来巨大的经济价值或竞争优势，因此要加强对商业秘密的保护，尤其是要加强对雇佣关系中的商业秘密的保护。在雇佣关系中，商业秘密权的保护与择业自由权的保护存在着冲突，是保护商业秘密的难点。竞业禁止作为保护商业秘密的手段，同时存在于在职期间和离职后，雇主通常与雇员签订竞业禁止协议来保护商业秘密，如何确认竞业禁止协议的合法性、合理性问题是保护商业秘密的又一个难点。     

电子商务模式决策的支持模型设计

借助潜在需求这一概念提出决策分析框架,帮助决策者在决策制定的最初分析阶段排除那些与本企业环境和供应链条件不相容的电子商务模式;旨在为电子商务从业者和研究人员提供一个实施电子商务模式决策分析时的支持模型.     

铁磁性金属簿膜磁特性的研究

讨论了铁磁性金属薄膜中的各向弄性磁阻效应。通过对晶体结构分析和实验验证,提出了一种假设:在外磁场作用下,产生了原子对的方向有序化,导致感生磁各向异性,并使晶体织构消失。根据对5种样品的实测数据,讨论了薄膜的动态磁化过程。