中国宏观经济预警体系的评价与修正

摘　　要:中国宏观经济预警体系建立于20世纪90年代初,十多年来为国家宏观调控提供了可靠的信息,成为宏观调控的主要依据之一。然而,进入本世纪以来,中国经济的运行格局发生了重大变化,导致预警体系的敏感度和预测精度出现了偏差,已经到了需要修正的时候。本文在对中国宏观预警体系分析与评价的基础上,对体系的结构与指标提出了修正的思路与方案。     

Generalized model for IGC growth in aluminum alloys

A generalized brick wall model is developed to describe intergranular corrosion in Equi-axed AA7178-T6 and Wingskin AA7178-T6 aluminum alloys. The intergranular corrosion rate is highly related to grain size and shape. High strength aluminum alloys are often elongated and anisotropic, with the fastest nominal IGC growth rate in the longitudinal direction (L) or long transverse direction (T) and the slowest in the short transverse direction (S). We propose a three-way intersection model and use it to simulate the corrosion kinetics for each direction. With a proper combination of model parameters, the generalized IGC model provides a good fit to experimental data developed by the foil penetration technique.     

Double Sampling Ratio-product Estimator of a Finite Population Mean in Sample Surveys

It is well known that two-phase (or double) sampling is of significant use in practice when the population parameter(s) (say, population mean X¯) of the auxiliary variate x is not known. Keeping this in view, we have suggested a class of ratio-product estimators in two-phase sampling with its properties. The asymptotically optimum estimators (AOEs) in the class are identified in two different cases with their variances. Conditions for the proposed estimator to be more efficient than the two-phase sampling ratio, product and mean per unit estimator are investigated. Comparison with single phase sampling is also discussed. An empirical study is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of the suggested estimator over conventional estimators.     

流浪乞讨人员救助管理制度的实践社会学分析——以北京市C救助站为例

基于对北京市C救助站的个案调查,以实践社会学为理论指导,比较分析我国救助管理制度的核心理念从＂收容＂转向＂救助＂的转变,尤其对实施过程中的实践逻辑进行了深入探究。研究认为,救助管理制度在运行中,其实践逻辑发生了偏误。要完善救助管理制度,不仅要充分调动社会救助主体的积极性,加强部门合作,而且要从理念上升为行动,确保制度的执行。     

具有GARCH（1，1）-正态误差项的非对称单位根检验研究

摘　　要:理论研究表明许多经济变量呈现出非对称的门限自回归（TAR）或动态门限自回归（M-TAR）数据生成机制,因而非对称单位根检验就成为该领域的主要研究方向之一。本文对非对称单位根检验Enders-Granger方法在GARCH（1,1）-正态误差项下的检验水平与检验势作了系统的仿真研究。研究表明：GARCH（1,1）-正态误差项的TAR或M-TAR模型会对该方法的检验水平和检验势产生重要影响。     

方法论个人主义的经济学与社会学解释——基于行动的视角

方法论所关心的问题是人们应当通过何种途径才能较好地理解人类社会和自然界中现象的真实本质．并指导着人们如何更加有效地把握行动的取向。纯粹性的整体主义和个人主义的方法论都是有失偏颇的,哈耶克社会性的个人主义和舒茨的主体间性理论都能较好地说明方法论的新取向,也正是他们的开创性理论预示了现代西方社会学对社会学两大主题的融合问题所给予的关注,同时他们的理论也使社会学方法论显现出实践性特点。     

Personal identity versus national identity among Hong Kong youths – personal and social education reform after reunification

This paper examines the use of Chinese traditions for the formation of a felt Hong Kong identity and a national identity among students in the personal and social education curriculum before and after reunification with China in 1997. This paper argues that the addition of China elements to the curriculum after reunification contributes to the continuous ambiguous identity of students, which is consistent with the results of various poll surveys about the civic identity of Hong Kong people in a larger context. This is because the personal and social education reform after reunification assumed a simple correlation between the patriotic feelings of students and their knowledge of China. It does not question how the promotion of an intensely unifying ‘cultural identity’ as political commitment is differentiated from the day-to-day ‘cultural experiences’ of students.     

Will to love,will to fear: the emotional politics of illegality and citizenship in the campaign against birthright citizenship in the US

Anti-immigration activists argue that the broad inclusivity of the birthright citizenship clause of the 14th Amendment is a national security concern that enables criminalized migrant mothers to give birth to citizens who can later harm the US through violence and resource consumption. Seeing this argument as representative of the problem of inclusivity inherent to citizenship in a liberal democracy, this essay asks how the children of undocumented and temporary migrants are constructed as what Mae Ngai calls ‘alien citizens.’ Drawing from Sara Ahmed's affective economy of emotion, I find that affect and emotion figure prominently in how citizens are made ‘alien.’ Specifically love and fear function as pivot points in the anti-birthright citizenship argument, wherein the ‘real citizen’ is ‘willed’ to love and be loved by the nation and to fear the nation's Others. Moreover, the emphasis on national feelings does not evacuate white supremacy or heteronormativity from its imagination of citizenship, but instead displaces these loci of power into feeling and affect. Thus, this essay claims that the birthright citizenship argument illustrates how national love and fear work in tandem to uphold, naturalize, and expand the racial and sexual exclusions inherent to citizenship in a nation-state.     

论我国高等教育运行机制的过渡与转换

本文认为,我国现阶段的高教运行机制正处于过渡与转换的初始阶段,机制转换的完成需要经历一个较长的过渡时期.为了顺利平稳地完成机制转换,必须构建相应的过渡性目标模式,以此作为从适应产品经济到适应有计划的商品经济的高教运行机制模式转换的中介。因此,今后—个时期高教改革的基本思路就不应只朝一个方向努力,而应以国家职能转变为契机,在国家、社会和学校三方面同时展开,并辅之于教育市场的不断培育和竞争机制的逐步加强。