《尚书·胤征》舞容与后羿传说的蕴意

古文《尚书·胤征》与征战无关,《胤征》叙事关乎历法修正,关乎仪式舞蹈;《胤征》之“征”,不能读为征战之“征”,而是正历之“正”;“胤”与“羿”发音近似,胤即羿,“胤征”与“后羿射日”内涵一致;“胤征”与“后羿射日”是同一传说的分化;被视作“历史”的“胤征羲和”与被看成神话的“后羿射日”,都源于《山海经》,反映的都是上古先民测天修历的实践。     

Maintaining and Strengthening a Shaky Regime with Mnemonic Work: Inventing a Chinese National Day from 1949 Through 1987 in Taiwan

This paper investigates the invention of a Chinese National Day from 1949 through 1987 in Taiwan to illuminate the significance of mnemonic work in nation‐building. The 1949 Retreat after the Chinese Civil War resulted in a serious legitimacy crisis for the government of the Republic of China; thus, (re)inventing the National Day became an important mission to maintain and even strengthen this shaky regime. While the role of the standardized commemorative narrative in influencing people's collective memory is granted, this article emphasizes the aspect of embodied memory in nation‐remembering. I point out that the official Chinese nationalism constructed its National Day as “inevitably” bustling, memorialized, accepted, heroic, familial‐ized, blessed, and pivotal‐ized to shape the impression of a sacred and memorable day. This paper—while essentially consistent with Billig's argument of banal nationalism—suggests that national identity is accumulated by many symbolically encoded elements found in daily life; it goes further to argue that banal nationalism needs the “hot” nationalism found in special occasions to encode, refresh, and redefine the symbolic meaning of entities. That is, the oscillations between sacred and profane are needed to guarantee that patriotic emotions can be continually created and maintained.     

国有控股、市场竞争与股权激励效应————基于倾向得分匹配法的实证研究

结合代理理论和制度理论,运用倾向得分匹配法,研究国有控股和市场竞争这两种基本制度环境对股权激励与企业绩效相关关系的影响机制和作用效果发现：股权激励整体上存在激励效应,能显著提高企业绩效;国有控股削弱了股权激励的实施效果,相对于非国有企业,股权激励对国有企业的激励效应并不显著;产品市场竞争强化了股权激励与企业绩效的正向关系,竞争程度越高,股权激励效果越好;市场竞争一定程度上提高了国有企业股权激励的实施效果,在竞争程度高的国企样本中,股权激励显现出了显著的激励效应。研究结论表明,制度环境是股权激励发挥作用的重要前提,深化国有企业产权改革、完善产品市场竞争是提高股权激励效果的关键。     

清水江文书纪年格式之“天运”考释

时间标识是契约文书中的关键要素,必须严谨准确。而在清水江文书中,多次出现以“天运+干支”格式的计时格式,给文书订立时间的确定带来辨识的障碍,而对“天运”的考释,也成为文书整理工作中的一大疑难。本文以《天柱文书》第一辑中的57份带“天运”字样的文书为例,在分类解析的基础上,考证“天运”格式的渊源,进而考察其形成原因,总结处理此一问题的有效方法。     

Handling Missing Values in Longitudinal Panel Data With Multiple Imputation

This article offers an applied review of key issues and methods for the analysis of longitudinal panel data in the presence of missing values. The authors consider the unique challenges associated with attrition (survey dropout), incomplete repeated measures, and unknown observations of time. Using simulated data based on 4 waves of the Marital Instability Over the Life Course Study (n = 2,034), they applied a fixed effect regression model and an event‐history analysis with time‐varying covariates. They then compared results for analyses with nonimputed missing data and with imputed data both in long and in wide structures. Imputation produced improved estimates in the event‐history analysis but only modest improvements in the estimates and standard errors of the fixed effects analysis. Factors responsible for differences in the value of imputation are examined, and recommendations for handling missing values in panel data are presented.     

A Bayesian estimate of the concordance correlation coefficient with skewed data

Concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is one of the most popular scaled indices used to evaluate agreement. Most commonly, it is used under the assumption that data is normally distributed. This assumption, however, does not apply to skewed data sets. While methods for the estimation of the CCC of skewed data sets have been introduced and studied, the Bayesian approach and its comparison with the previous methods has been lacking. In this study, we propose a Bayesian method for the estimation of the CCC of skewed data sets and compare it with the best method previously investigated. The proposed method has certain advantages. It tends to outperform the best method studied before when the variation of the data is mainly from the random subject effect instead of error. Furthermore, it allows for greater flexibility in application by enabling incorporation of missing data, confounding covariates, and replications, which was not considered previously. The superiority of this new approach is demonstrated using simulation as well as real‐life biomarker data sets used in an electroencephalography clinical study. The implementation of the Bayesian method is accessible through the Comprehensive R Archive Network. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hedging Barrier Options in GARCH Models with Transaction Costs

This study proposes a modified strike‐spread method for hedging barrier options in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models with transaction costs. A simulation study was conducted to investigate the hedging performance of the proposed method in comparison with several well‐known static methods for hedging barrier options. An accurate, easy‐to‐implement and fast scheme for generating the first passage time under the GARCH framework which enhances the accuracy and efficiency of the simulation is also proposed. Simulation results and an empirical study using real data indicate that the proposed approach has a promising performance for hedging barrier options in GARCH models when transaction costs are taken into consideration.     

A multilevel model with autoregressive components for the analysis of tribal art prices

In this paper, we introduce a multilevel model specification with time-series components for the analysis of prices of artworks sold at auctions. Since auction data do not constitute a panel or a time series but are composed of repeated cross-sections, they require a specification with items at the first level nested in time-points. Our approach combines the flexibility of mixed effect models together with the predicting performance of time series as it allows to model the time dynamics directly. Model estimation is obtained by means of maximum likelihood through the expectation–maximization algorithm. The model is motivated by the analysis of the first database ethnic artworks sold in the most important auctions worldwide. The results show that the proposed specification improves considerably over classical proposals both in terms of fit and prediction.     

Generalized Estimation of the BLUP in Mixed-Effects Models: A Comparison with ML and REML

The Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (BLUP) in mixed models is a function of the variance components and they are estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) or restricted ML methods. Nonconvergence of BLUP would occur due to a drawback of the standard likelihood-based approaches. In such situations, ML and REML either do not provide any BLUPs or all become equal. To overcome this drawback, we provide a generalized estimate (GE) of BLUP that does not suffer from the problem of negative or zero variance components, and compare its performance against the ML and REML estimates of BLUP. Simulated and published data are used to compare BLUP.     

A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Two-Way ANOVA Model Without Interaction Under Heteroscedasticity

In this article we consider the two-way ANOVA model without interaction under heteroscedasticity. For the problem of testing equal effects of factors, we propose a parametric bootstrap (PB) approach and compare it with existing the generalized F (GF) test. The Type I error rates and powers of the tests are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our studies show that the PB test performs better than the GF test. The PB test performs very satisfactorily even for small samples while the GF test exhibits poor Type I error properties when the number of factorial combinations or treatments goes up. It is also noted that the same tests can be used to test the significance of random effect variance component in a two-way mixed-effects model under unequal error variances.