中国-东盟自由贸易区的经济效应分析

中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)建设已进入实质性阶段.至2010年,中国与东盟老成员国将建成自由贸易区,2015年,东盟新成员国与中国将实现自由贸易.CAFTA将给中国和东盟带来正的经济效应,也会带来负的经济效应.     

不安抗辩权试析

<中华人民共和国合同法>虽然确立了不安抗辩权制度,但在实践中如何正确贯彻实施,尚有许多需要研究的问题.弄清发生不安抗辩权法定事由的判定标准,弄清难为对待给付的发生原因、发生时间以及不安抗辩权的法律效果,对于正确实施不安抗辩权制度,保护债权人的正当合法权益,稳定社会主义市场经济秩序,都具有十分重要的意义.     

全球化的文化思考

本文主要论述了全球化的内涵、效应、价值意蕴以及由此而引发的深层文化冲撞问题。认为全球化的内涵首先是自然理性形态的全球化,如哲学、技术等领域,而不仅仅是经济的全球化。全球化的双重效应促使人类形成共同利益以及共同价值,但仍然难以避免不同文化间的碰撞。     

试论自然资源产权结构

影响自然资源环境生态效益的因素很多 ,有产权制度及其限制机制 ,国家实施法律和管理环境的能力等。从资源保护的角度设置一个好的产权结构非常重要 ,必须处理好一系列的关系 ,如经济效益和环境生态效益的关系 ,公民环境意识和国家实施法律及管理环境的能力等。对主要自然资源产权结构模式的选择和探讨十分必要。     

Are corrupt acts contagious?: Evidence from the United States

This paper adds to the literature by shedding new light on the causes of corruption. Specifically, we provide evidence on the extent to which corruption might be contagious. In other words, what is the extent to which a demonstration effect is at play at inducing corrupt acts? Using state-level U.S. data over the 1995–2004 period, the results show that the effect of neighboring corruption is positive and statistically significant in all cases, implying that corruption does appear to be contagious. Specifically, a 10% increase in corruption in neighboring states appears to increase corruption in a state by about 4–11%. Of the different types of government activity, the size of defense and non-defense federal sectors in a state seem to have opposite effects on corruption, with the former contributing to corruption and the latter serving as a deterrent. The size of the state and local governments does not seem to be relevant. Of the variables controlling for detection and punishment of corrupt individuals, greater corrections employment reduces corruption, while greater judicial employment seems to increase corruption. Changes in the police force do not seem to have a statistically significant impact. These findings generally hold when we control for the disproportionate effects of the Washington, DC area and when a pooled data set is estimated. Contagion effects are also found for other crimes. Policy implications are discussed.     

多属性逆向拍卖中信息披露负效应的成因与应对策略

信息披露正在被越来越多地应用于拍卖过程,主要起调节报价的作用。然而,信息披露在多属性逆向拍卖中潜在的负效应也逐渐展露,主要表现为供应商利润下降、拍卖无效、商业机密泄露等。究其成因,主要有信息的敏感性、披露的复杂性和供应商感知的差异性。因此,针对以上现象及其成因采用供应商合谋、逆向选择、提高竞争力等应对策略,将有助于完善逆向拍卖机制。     

Multilevel regression mixture analysis

Summary.  A two-level regression mixture model is discussed and contrasted with the conventional two-level regression model. Simulated and real data shed light on the modelling alternatives. The real data analyses investigate gender differences in mathematics achievement from the US National Education Longitudinal Survey. The two-level regression mixture analyses show that unobserved heterogeneity should not be presupposed to exist only at level 2 at the expense of level 1. Both the simulated and the real data analyses show that level 1 heterogeneity in the form of latent classes can be mistaken for level 2 heterogeneity in the form of the random effects that are used in conventional two-level regression analysis. Because of this, mixture models have an important role to play in multilevel regression analyses. Mixture models allow heterogeneity to be investigated more fully, more correctly attributing different portions of the heterogeneity to the different levels.     

Likelihood Inference for Unions of Interacting Discs

Abstract. This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ‐grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analysing Peter Diggle's heather data set, where we discuss the results of simulation‐based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models.