Almost Consistent Estimation of Panel Probit Models with “Small” Fixed Effects

We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small Tand large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent variable conditional on explanatory variables and on the fixed effect. The estimators differ w.r.t. the choice of instruments and whether they use trimming to reduce the bias or not. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare these estimators with pooled probit and conditional logit estimators for different data generating processes. The results show that the proposed estimators outperform these competitors in several situations.     

Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach

This paper investigates how individuals evaluate delayed outcomes with risky realization times. Under the discounted expected utility (DEU) model, such evaluations depend only on intertemporal preferences. We obtain several testable hypotheses using the DEU model as a benchmark and test these hypotheses in three experiments. In general, our results show that the DEU model is a poor predictor of intertemporal choice behavior under timing risk. We found that individuals are averse to timing risk and that they evaluate timing lotteries in a rank-dependent fashion. The main driver of timing risk aversion is nothing but probabilistic risk aversion that stems from the nonlinear treatment of probabilities.     

社会化改革后高校后勤运行模式的理性选择

高校后勤社会化改革是一个复杂的系统工程,需经历一个发展的过程.辩证地分析高校后勤现行运行模式的优缺点,探讨社会化改革后高校后勤运行模式选择的基本原则和理性选择的思路,提出高校深化后勤社会化改革的参考模式.     

Partner Choice and the Differential Retreat From Marriage

The contemporary retreat from marriage in the United States has had a differential impact across socioeconomic and racial groups. Here, 1990 marriage rates and propensities for Virginia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are analyzed regarding (a) the likelihood that persons in different groups ever marry and (b) patterns of partner choice with respect to race and educational level. Marriage remains strong in most race‐education groups but is substantially lower among Blacks and among those with less than 12 years of education. Patterns of partner choice have shifted to show greater symmetry between the educational levels of brides and grooms. Changes have been modest with regard to the level and pattern of interracial (Black‐White) marriage. Marriage is increasingly a union of equals, but a union chosen more by Whites than by Blacks and more by the well educated than by the poorly educated.     

东盟政策机制中的政策网络

政策网络是政策机制的重要组成部分,东盟政策网络的结构和运作是其政治精英理性选择的结果,目的是使这个地区政策网络能满足一体化政策领域扩展的需要,并实现区域一体化进程中各成员国的利益最大化。     

论《呐喊》、《彷徨》中虚无主义思想的复杂性

<呐喊>、<彷徨>在价值取向上存在着相当复杂的循环否定和自我否定现象,其思想体系也相应呈现出一种无序的混乱状态.面对两难选择的思想困境,鲁迅主要采用说谎和遗忘两种方式来应对,从而使<呐喊>、<彷徨>的价值选择处在一种空白、悬置的状态,这是<呐喊>、<彷徨>虚无主义思想产生的内在根源.<呐喊>、<彷徨>中所表现出来的虚无主义思想带有鲁迅本人的个性特征与时代印痕,与社会现实存在着一种同构关系.     

强国富民:中国民主党派政治选择的价值取向

20世纪40年代中国民主党派选择与中国共产党合作,共同推翻蒋介石国民党政权的统治。中国民主党派的这一政治选择不仅原于国民党的独裁统治、中国共产党的统一战线政策、中国民主党派自身的先进性等政治层面的因素,更蕴涵着价值取向层面的因素——对强国富民这一理想的不懈追求。对这一历史问题的探讨,不仅对中国民主党派史的研究具有学术价值,而且对今天的执政党——中国共产党有着重要的历史启示。     

SMA路面施工应注意的问题

通过对改性沥青SMA面层试验段结果分析,从原材料、拌和、摊铺、碾压等方面对改性沥青及SMA混合料在施工中需要注意的问题及解决的方法进行了阐述。     

On the difficulty of making social choices

The difficulty of making social choices seems to take on two forms: one that is related to both preferences and the method used in aggregating them and one which is related to the preferences only. In the former type the difficulty has to do with the discrepancies of outcomes resulting from various preference aggregation methods and the computation of winners in elections. Some approaches and results which take their motivation from the computability theory are discussed. The latter institution-free type of difficulty pertains to solution theory of the voting games. We discuss the relationships between various solution concepts, e.g. uncovered set, Banks set, Copeland winners. Finally rough sets are utilized in an effort to measure the difficulty of making social choices.