Bayesian estimation of reliability using time-to-failure distribution of parametric degradation models

This paper focusses on computing the Bayesian reliability of components whose performance characteristics (degradation – fatigue and cracks) are observed during a specified period of time. Depending upon the nature of degradation data collected, we fit a monotone increasing or decreasing function for the data. Since the components are supposed to have different lifetimes, the rate of degradation is assumed to be a random variable. At a critical level of degradation, the time to failure distribution is obtained. The exponential and power degradation models are studied and exponential density function is assumed for the random variable representing the rate of degradation. The maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimator of the parameter of exponential density function, predictive distribution, hierarchical Bayes approach and robustness of the posterior mean are presented. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to obtain the Bayesian estimates of the parameter. Illustrations are provided for the train wheel degradation data.     

Joint Modelling of Survival and Longitudinal Data with Informative Observation Times

In this paper, we consider the joint modelling of survival and longitudinal data with informative observation time points. The survival model and the longitudinal model are linked via random effects, for which no distribution assumption is required under our estimation approach. The estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The proposed estimator and its estimated covariance matrix can be easily calculated. Simulation studies and an application to a primary biliary cirrhosis study are also provided.     

The turn to optional familialism through the market: Long‐term care,cash‐for‐care,and caregiving policies in Europe

Cash‐for‐care (CfC) schemes are monetary transfers to people in need of care who can use them to organize their own care arrangements. Mostly introduced in the 1990s, these schemes combine different policy objectives, as they can aim at (implicitly or explicitly) supporting informal caregivers as well as increasing user choice in long‐term care or even foster the formalization of care relations and the creation of care markets. This article explores from a comparative perspective, how CfC schemes, within broader long‐term care policies, envision, frame, and aim to condition informal care, if different models of relationships between CfC and informal care exist and how these have persisted or changed over time and into which directions. Building on the scholarly debate on familialization vs. defamilialization policies, the paper proposes an analytical framework to investigate the trajectories of seven European countries over a period of 20 years. The results show that, far from being simply instruments of supported familialism, CfC schemes have contributed to a turn towards “optional familialism through the market,” according to which families are encouraged to provide family care and are (directly or indirectly) given alternatives through the provision of market care.     

From the Digital Divide to the Connectivity Dividend Difference: A Connectivity Capital Perspective*

The access divide was once the basic form of the digital divide. The development of Internet infrastructure has narrowed the access divide and increased application coverage, but it has also touched off a connectivity dividend difference. Taking the online market as an example, we examine the sources of the dividend difference and the factors influencing it with in a connectivity framework. We found that the narrowing of the access divide has resulted in enhanced connectivity and platform development, giving people the chance to benefit from transforming the various assets in which they have previously invested into differentiated compound connectivity capital. In the course, the scale and rate of the conversion are affected by two multiplier effects and especially by online platforms. The process is ultimately expressed in the dividend difference.     

安徽教育投资发展状况及优化路径研究

近年来，安徽省教育投资环境明显改善，大力推进教育均衡发展，教育投资总量不断增加，教育事业稳步发展，但同时也暴露出诸多问题。安徽省教育投资发展存在的主要问题是：教育投资增速放缓，多元化投资渠道尚未形成，投资结构不合理，区域分布不均衡。在“十九大”提出的教育发展精神指导下，针对安徽省教育投资发展现状与存在的主要问题，提出优化安徽省教育投资发展的主要路径。     

Causal structure among US corn futures and regional cash prices in the time and frequency domain

This study investigates causal structure among daily Chicago Board of Trade corn futures prices and seven regional cash series from Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Kansas for January 2006–March 2011. Their wavelet transformed series are further analyzed for causal relationships at different time scales. Empirical results indicate no causality among states or between the futures and a cash series for time scales shorter than one month. As scales increase but do not exceed a year, bidirectional causal flows are determined among all prices. The information leadership role of the futures against a cash price is identified for the scale longer than one year and raw series, at which no interstate causality is found.     

Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin Exponential distribution

In this paper, a new generalization of the Kumaraswamy distribution namely, the Kumaraswamy Marshall-Olkin Exponential distribution (KwMOE) is introduced and studied. Various properties are explored. The structural analysis includes various aspects such as limiting behaviour, shape properties, moments, quantiles, mean deviation, Renyi entropy, order statistics and stochastic ordering. Some useful characterizations of the family are also obtained. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the model parameters. Monte Carlo simulation study is being conducted. An application to a real data set is presented for illustrative purposes.     

中国收入分配的公平与效率关系测度及评价

首先对公平与效率做出了精确定义,确定其指标,然后测度由于收入分配总量和结构引致的公平与效率的变化量,在此基础上构建了一个公平效率指数,用来反映中国二者关系的变化及其协调程度,最后采用目标优化的方法对收入分配总量和结构进行了优化,根据优化结果提出了改善收入分配关系的建议。     

Optimal acceptance sampling for modules F and F1 of the European Measuring Instruments Directive

ABSTRACT

Acceptance sampling plans offered by ISO 2859-1 are far from optimal under the conditions for statistical verification in modules F and F1 as prescribed by Annex II of the Measuring Instruments Directive (MID) 2014/32/EU, resulting in sample sizes that are larger than necessary. An optimised single-sampling scheme is derived, both for large lots using the binomial distribution and for finite-sized lots using the exact hypergeometric distribution, resulting in smaller sample sizes that are economically more efficient while offering the full statistical protection required by the MID.     

初次收入分配对我国居民旅游消费影响研究

文章选取初次分配工资分配率、城镇居民基尼系数、各收入阶层旅游消费占比作为分析指标，经分析研究所得结论为：低、中收入阶层旅游消费占比与分配率负相关，分配率所代表的初次收入分配总量性影响对中收入阶层旅游消费影响较大，中、高收入阶层旅游消费占比都与城镇居民基尼系数正相关，其中城镇居民基尼系数代表的初次收入分配结构性影响对高收入阶层旅游消费影响较大；并针对各阶层的特殊性对各收入阶层旅游消费发展提出相应政策建议.