EDITOR'S NOTE ON PERFORMING LOVE

Since the first Gulf War, we have witnessed a global repositioning of the visual communication practices, utilities and techniques of the state and media as regards political mobilization, identity formation, geographic perception, political violence, urban planning, public safety and human rights. The circulation, of anthropologically threatening images of violence, terror, covert infection and social suffering has intensified in our public culture. Examining perceptual systems of global risk, this essay asks: what is the visual structure of the historical catastrophe as mediatic event? How do visual cultures and technologies of risk and threat perception stratify sensory experience? How do visual cultures of risk affect how perpetuators and victims of violence and human rights violations depict their political experience as historical truth?     

非线性单主元企业组织规模发展的突变点判定

本文简要阐述了突变现象的研究,探讨了突变的形式和突变点寻找所涉及的问题。通过对影响企业组织规模因素的讨论,给出了非线性企业组织规模的一般函数。探讨了非线性单主元企业组织规模函数的近似问题。结合例子,应用突变理论,就其折叠型、尖点型的突变判定进行了研究,并就突变点寻找的方法作了小结。     

A class of maximum-entropy multivariate distributions

This paper characterizes a class of multivariate distributions that includes the multinormal and is contained in the exponential family. The wide range of possible applications of these distributions is suggested by some of hte characteristics germane to them: First, they maximize Shannon's entropy among all distributions that have finite moments of given orders. As such, they constitute a class of distributions that includes the multinormal and some likely alternatives. Second, they can exhibit several modes, and, further-more, they do so with a relatively small number of parameters (compared to mixtures of multinormals). Third, they are the stationary distributions of certain diffusion processes. Fourth, they approximate, near the multinormal, the multivariate Pearson family. And fifth, the maximum likelihood estimators of their population moments are the sample moments. Two possible methods of estimating the distributions are studied in this paper: maximum likelihood estimation, and a fast procedure that can be used to find consistent estimators of the parameters via sample moments. A FORTTAN subroutine that implements the latter method is also provided.     

我国巨灾保险立法模式探讨

巨灾保险制度的建立必须以巨灾保险法律制度为基础,探讨适合我国的巨灾保险立法模式是巨灾保险法律制度建设首先必须解决的问题之一.本文通过考察世界各国巨灾保险立法模式的类型,借鉴巨灾保险先行国家和地区的成功经验,依据我国现阶段的国情和法治状况,总结出我国巨灾保险立法模式比较可行的选择是采用专项型立法模式,首先针对地震风险制定<地震保险法>,在此基础上逐步建立针对其他灾种的巨灾保险法律制度.     

战略联盟竞合行为的随机突变分析与仿真

针对多成员战略联盟在不确定环境下策略的演化过程,借助演化博弈论建立了含有白噪声的随机动力学。利用随机突变理论来分析在不确定性条件下,联盟成员行为(竞争或合作)随着参数的连续变化在整体上发生突变的问题,给出了联盟发生突变的临界集,以此来解释和预测在不确定性环境下,战略联盟发生非计划性解体或者合作失败的突发性问题。对不同场景下的模型进行了数值仿真,结果表明,在临界集附近,联盟集体的行为发生了突变。     

我国农业保险政策及其可能走向分析

\t 目的/意义\t 农业保险大灾风险分散机制将随着乡村振兴战略的推进而不断丰富和完善。\t 设计/方法\t 基于2008～2017年数据,通过耦合协调度模型研究了农业保险大灾风险分散机制与乡村振兴的耦合协调程度,并通过灰色关联分析法进一步研究了农业保险大灾风险分散环境、能力、意识、方式与乡村振兴的关联性。\t 结论/发现\t 首先,我国农业保险大灾风险分散机制与乡村振兴之间的耦合协调程度,从低于0.5的轻度失调阶段,发展到介于0.6~0.7的初级协调阶段,再到介于0.8~0.9的良好协调阶段,呈现出演进趋势。其次,农业保险大灾风险分散环境、农业保险大灾风险分散能力与乡村振兴的关联度呈现出波动性趋势。农业保险大灾风险分散意识、农业保险大灾风险分散方式与乡村振兴的关联度呈现出先减少后增加的趋势。     

“丝绸之路经济带”背景下哈萨克斯坦投资风险测度及预警研究

通过建立投资风险突变模型,构建七级投资风险预警表,对哈萨克斯坦国内1995—2014年的投资风险进行测度,研究结果认为:2008年以后哈萨克斯坦投资风险不断上升,其中2008年、2010年、2014年投资风险均达到突变级别。采用GM(1,1)模型和ARMA模型对2015-2017年哈萨克斯坦投资风险指标进行组合预测,并对预测结果进行预警分析,结果显示:2015年、2016年哈萨克斯坦综合投资风险较2014年有所下降,但2017年投资综合风险达到六级预警线以上,存在较大投资风险。     

中国农业经济整体运行景气信号预警系统研究

在中国农业经济整体运行景气信号预警系统的建立过程中 ,使用贡献分析法进行预警指标的定量筛选 ,提高了指标选择的可信度 ;采用突变数学作为计算综合预警界限以及预警警度的方法 ,测算结果表明该方法的有效性。     

创新型企业成长性、企业价值及其关系研究

成长性是衡量企业发展状况和潜力的重要指标,也是影响企业价值的决定性因素。对创新型企业成长性、企业价值及其关系的研究不仅能帮助投资者更好地识别投资风险、制定投资决策,也能给管理层了解企业运营状况、制定发展战略提供参考。采用突变级数和实物期权方法,对作为创新型企业典型代表的创业板上市公司的成长性和企业价值进行分析和评估,并在此基础上实证考察它们之间的关系。研究结果显示：创新型企业成长性较高,但它们个体之间差异较大;整体而言创新型企业价值偏小,但成长性较高的公司的企业价值则相对较大;创新型企业成长性与期权价值之间存在关联,且盈利能力、发展能力和创新能力成长性越高的企业的期权价值越大,而偿债能力成长性越高的企业的期权价值越小;不同行业的创新型企业的成长性与企业价值之间的关系互有差别。     

Legocentrism

Among discernable trends in contemporary architecture, a salient one continues to be what might be called a “building-block” aesthetic. Despite radical increases in the efficiency of buildings – from the digital modeling that makes new modes of structural engineering possible to the LEED certificates that ratify credentials of environmental soundness – we seem, in the midst of these advances, to be witnessing an almost regressive aesthetic in the design of the buildings themselves. But what are the sources, meanings, and prospects for a contemporary look that appears to court nostalgia? Of course, as with so many things, we may be unable to see what lies before us: that these structures do, in fact, resemble a child’s playthings. Yet, to what end? In this essay, I take a closer look at some of these building-block buildings with an eye toward assessing and suggesting a reading of their significance.