评托姆的概念理论

托姆利用突变论的数学工具构造的概念论有助于沟通和整合实在论与工具论、真理符合论与实用真理观。在托姆看来,语言之所以使我们有可能比较正确地描述世界,是因为它具有一种隐含的结构形态,这种结构形态既是物理学形态,又是生物学形态。因为每个初等句的结构都与时空中最一般的现象学间断点的结构同形;而每个具体概念又都与一种生物的生理活动机制同构。托姆概念论的缺陷在于其自然主义立场,需要拓展到社会实践的视界中。     

重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下农户的生计水平突变研究

重大突发公共卫生事件给农户生计造成了全面且持久的冲击,一定程度上阻碍了脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴的衔接进程。以新冠肺炎疫情为重大突发公共卫生事件的典型案例,从随机突变论的全新视角,构建疫情前后的农户生计水平演变动力学模型,基于疫情核心区湖北省的465户农村居民调研数据,采用非线性实证分析方法,探寻农户生计脆弱性引致因素及恢复路径。研究发现:以新冠肺炎疫情为代表的突发公共卫生事件可能会诱发农户生计水平的突变,其程度由生计风险决定,且事件发展不同阶段的影响存在差异。疫情冲击下,农户自然资本具有显著的抗风险能力,人力资本与物质资本损失甚微,而金融与社会资本却遭遇重创。疫后农户生计水平的不同源于生计策略差异,务工主导型农户生计脆弱性较高,而农工互补型农户适应力最强。现行的惠农政策对复工复产虽然有效,但农户生计水平恢复具有时滞性。面对突发公共卫生事件,政府应以农户生计策略为导向,制定并完善农户生计风险应急机制,探索差异化、特色化支农助农惠农政策,拓展农户多元化增收渠道,提高农户生计韧性和稳定性,实现生计恢复和可持续发展,以促进脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴的有效衔接。     

政府财政主导下的巨灾风险融资体系建设

面对日益增加的巨灾风险事故和巨额的经济损失,我国在巨灾风险融资方面陷入了政府救济不堪负重,保险市场供需双冷、金融市场严重缺位、社会捐助问题重重的困境。基于此,需要通过大力发挥政府财政的间接作用,以撬动保险市场和金融市场,调动社会捐助积极性,将巨灾风险向国内外社会进行分散,最终形成一个以政府财政为核心、保险市场和金融市场为支柱、社会捐助为补充的巨灾融资体系,为巨灾事故发生后不同层次和不同主体的短期、中期、长期的资金需求提供融资保障。     

突发公共安全事件民法制度研究

突发事件应对法是针对突发公共安全事件的立法,该法中政府行政管理成分居多,对突发公共安全事件进行民商事调整的法律规定较少,使我国现行法律对突发公共安全事件所引起的法律问题的民商法调整显得力不从心。针对突发公共安全事件调整中存在的民事法律问题进行研究,分析我国民事法律制度存在的缺陷,并据此提出完善立法的几点建议。     

自然灾难、基督教与中世纪艺术

对于中世纪艺术的形成,人们往往从北方蛮族那里寻找依据,简单地把中世纪艺术贴上倒退的标签,而相对忽视自然灾难对于中世纪艺术的重要意义。在自然灾难的作用下,基督教最终征服了罗马人、北方蛮族,并创造了不同于古典艺术的一种新型的艺术样式。在基督教那里自然灾难不仅演变成为上帝惩罚人类贪婪的刑具,而且是对上帝存在的确认。这就意味着:中世纪以上帝为中心的艺术必然在内容、形式、功能等方面体现出自然灾难的影响作用。     

Stakeholder Views on Flood Risk Management in Hungary''s Upper Tisza Basin

With escalating costs of flood mitigation and relief, a challenge for the Hungarian government is to develop a flood mitigation and insurance/relief system that is viewed as efficient and fair by the many stakeholders involved. To aid policymakers in this task, this article reports on a recent study to elicit stakeholder views on flood risk management in the Upper Tisza Basin, including views on appropriate means of reducing losses and for transferring the residual losses from the direct victims to taxpayers or an insurance pool. This study is part of a project to develop an integrated approach to flood risk management coordinated by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in collaboration with Swedish and Hungarian researchers. The discussion begins by describing the background of flood risk management problems in the Upper Tisza Basin. The results of interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders and the results of a public survey eliciting views on flood risk management are reported. The final section draws conclusions on incorporating stakeholder views into a flood risk management model, which will be used to illustrate policy paths at an upcoming stakeholder workshop. The conclusions are also of direct interest to Hungarian policymakers.     

War remains: contributions of the Imperial War Graves Commission and the Australian War Records Section to material and national cultures of conflict and commemoration

The Imperial (subsequently the Commonwealth) War Graves Commission (IWGC) was established in 1917 comprising member countries of the former British Empire. The organisation was charged with providing appropriate memorials to commemorate the Empire’s war dead, individually and equally, without regard for military rank, class or nationality. This was no easy task given the numbers of dead from multiple theatres of war, the variety and oftentimes competing demands of imperial and national war offices, and the uncertain aesthetics arising from individually attuned and publically oriented commemorative intentions. Equally caught up in the mix of agencies and design practices were hordes of war trophies, captured artillery and military relics retrieved from battlefields across Europe, items carefully catalogued and preserved by the British War Office (BWO) and offspring agencies to provide artefacts for building memorials in Commonwealth states. This paper describes the work of the IWGC during and immediately following the years of the First World War. It relates the Commission’s activities building war cemeteries in view of changing geopolitical circumstances and commemorative conventions. The paper highlights tensions that appeared in the near routine collection of trophies for memorials and war cemeteries between British imperial offices and those of dominions and former colonies, specifically the Australian War Records Section which gained independence from the BWO in May 1917. The paper examines the mutual engagement of war’s material culture with patterns of sentiment shaped by mass conflict, an engagement mediated by administrative practices of war and remembrance.     

Commemorating the colonial Pilbara: beyond memorials into difficult history

The colonial Northwest of Western Australia was a harsh frontier, where demands for Aboriginal land, labour and knowledge led to dispossession, loss of rights, massacre and generations encumbered with the colonial legacy. In the Pilbara, there are some rare attempts to engage with this difficult colonial history, mainly in the form of heritage site interpretation and heritage trails. Overall, the difficult colonial history of the Northwest is poorly represented. Colonialism and its legacy are not effectively commemorated, nor are distinct local cultural and civic attributes highlighted as ‘lessons from the past’. In this paper, we explore the memorialization and commemoration of the Northwest's traumatic colonial history and consider a history of how heritage has been represented across the landscape. We suggest that the affective heritage of the Northwest especially cross-cultural or multi-cultural sites and histories can provide a basis for commemorating difficult colonial history or violent events that are underrepresented in dominant heritage regimes.     

我国农业巨灾风险基金筹资标准区域差异研究--基于省级层面的种植业损失数据

根据我国各地区农业经济特色以及农业风险不同，中央级农业巨灾基金改革设计中，其筹资应遵循差异化原则。从致灾因子、承灾能力和筹资能力三个角度选取指标，运用因子分析法对我国31个省、自治区、直辖市进行聚类分析，提出将全国分成低费率地区、高费率地区和中等费率地区等三个不同筹资区划，以体现基金筹资的科学性和合理性。     

巨灾保险制度比较研究及其对中国的启示

中国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一,但巨灾保险缺失。通过对日本地震保险、新西兰地震保险、美国加利福尼亚州地震保险、美国国家洪水保险、英国洪水保险和美国佛罗里达州飓风保险进行研究后发现,商业保险市场无力支撑巨灾保险,政府的界入是必要的和有益的。中国应以地震保险为试点尽早建立政府支持的巨灾保险制度。