Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

船山心性论分析

船山创造性地诠释了张载关于“太虚”的观念,提出了“气”本体论,并以“气”本体作为其重新阐释儒学心性论的天道依据,全面阐发了“性”、“心”之内涵及其内在联系,性情论,未发已发说,道心人心说等心性论各个层面的问题。船山对儒学心性论的解释,贯穿着“理本一原,故人心即天”,“以健顺五常之理融合于清通”的主题,突显了儒家传统性善论的主体性原则和天人合一的圣学思想。其目的在于,克服宋明理学自身的逻辑矛盾及其在精神气质上与儒门之正学的张力和偏差,以便回归儒门之正学,重新确立道德理性的至上地位。     

新疆兵团现代物流业发展探析

现代物流作为一种先进的组织方式和管理技术,其发展程度已成为衡量一个国家或地区现代化程度的重要标志。该文从新疆兵团物流业发展现状、面临的机遇和优势等方面对兵团工业化进程中的现代物流业进行了分析,并提出兵团发展现代物流业的对策。     

北宋前中期富民阶层与诗词关系考论

北宋前中期富民阶层在经济政治"新变"背景下得到迅速发展,这一阶层的某些属性决定了富民必然有诗词消费需求。富民阶层的精神需求与群体心态,对诗词发展起到了重要的作用。为了满足富民阶层需要而写作的诗词,随之具有了某些较为固定的艺术特征。     

企业会计模式的构建

现代企业制度是市场经济的基础,它要求建立与之相适应的会计模式.会计模式的建立受经济环境的制约,又要解决实际问题.在此分析的基础上,重点从客观经济环境和企业特点出发,从会计管理制度制定,会计信息系统设置和会计监督机制建立三大方面构建企业会计模式.     

我国高职师资问题及国际视野中的解决路径探析

在世界经济一体化和全球化的大背景下,无论发达国家还是发展中国家,都将把提高职业教育的整体质量作为保持和提高国际竞争力的重要手段.发展高等职业教育是我国高等教育为适应经济和社会发展做出的战略性选择.文章针对我国高等职业教育发展中师资队伍建设中存在的问题,就如何提升职教师资的学历层次,提高职教师资的培养质量等问题进行了探讨.     

民族院校新闻传播学科发展的路径选择

民族院校应该是以全面服务于非主流族群作为自身的基本定位，民族院校的新闻传播学科要在准确理解这一定位的基础上确立自身的发展路径，以鲜明的特色建构来强化自身的学科核心竞争力。     

“教师专业化”对课程编制价值取向的影响——以集美大学教师教育专业的高等数学课程为例

教师的专业化教育是教师教育现代化的重要特征。教育专业的高等数学课程如何在“教师专业化”框架中获得发展，是优化教育专业课程体系的关键所在。高等数学课程编制应当坚持以知识性、探究性和延展性为特点的价值取向。     

改革开放——中华民族的复兴之路

建国以来，中国的发展以1978年为界分为前后两个30年。前30年，中国在计划经济体制下，顺利完成了国民经济的恢复任务、社会主义改造，并建立起比较完善的国民经济体系。后30年，中国通过改革开放，走上了一条中国特色社会主义发展道路，初步实现了国家的繁荣强盛，但是也面临着发展的困境。如果说，正是通过30年的改革开放，使中国真正跻身世界大国行列，那么中国在今后的发展中解决一系列发展难题，也必然要靠继续深化改革扩大开放。因此，认真总结中国改革开放的经验教训，为实现中华民族的伟大复兴就是我们必须要做的重要工作。     

Social identities and political cleavages: the role of political context

Summary. Using a novel method, the paper investigates the influence of social group identities on attitudes and on voting in a variety of political contexts. Examining the major regions of Britain, Canada and the USA, we find considerable national and regional diversity in the nature of social cleavages. For example, social class and race had widely different effects across societies, but within societies their effects on attitudes and on voting were very similar. However, despite that, age and religion had a similar effect on attitudes across societies; the effects on voting varied considerably. The significant within-country differences underline the importance of using region, rather than country, as the unit of analysis. More importantly, these results highlight the role of political context, especially competing cleavages and the structure of party competition, in the establishment of politically relevant social cleavages.