中国城市商业银行的资产重组模式选择——以徽商银行为例

我国城市商业银行正处在一个生存与发展的关键阶段,资产重组是我国城市商业银行改革的核心内容,也是寻找外部开放与内部改革之间平衡点的关键。从徽商银行的特殊性出发,对我国城市商业银行进行现状分析,提出我国城市银行走出困境的方案——资产重组。以徽商银行成功资产重组为案例,分析其过程,从而为其他城市商业银行资产重组模式的正确选择提供借鉴作用。     

民营银行市场准入的法律问题研究

在入世五年过渡期后,我国银行业已全面对外开放。而与之形成鲜明对比的是,对内开放却步履缓慢,如履薄冰。发展民营银行对于迎接外资银行的挑战,加速我国金融体制市场化进程具有重要的现实意义。应当在充分认识民营银行潜在风险的基础上,对民营银行的市场准入进行审慎的法律监管,以保证其健康有序地发展。     

湖南省区域中心城市发展中的人口问题研究——以长株潭城市群为例

基于长株潭城市群人口发展现状,利用相关人口指标与武汉、广州等经济发达城市相比较,表明长株潭城市群在人口规模、行业人口结构及人口质量等方面存在一些问题,并提出促进城市发展的人口对策。     

A general central limit theorem and a subsampling variance estimator for α‐mixing point processes

We establish a central limit theorem for multivariate summary statistics of nonstationary α‐mixing spatial point processes and a subsampling estimator of the covariance matrix of such statistics. The central limit theorem is crucial for establishing asymptotic properties of estimators in statistics for spatial point processes. The covariance matrix subsampling estimator is flexible and model free. It is needed, for example, to construct confidence intervals and ellipsoids based on asymptotic normality of estimators. We also provide a simulation study investigating an application of our results to estimating functions.     

A semi-parametric method for estimating the beta coefficients of the hidden two-sided asset return jumps

ABSTRACT

We introduce a new methodology for estimating the parameters of a two-sided jump model, which aims at decomposing the daily stock return evolution into (unobservable) positive and negative jumps as well as Brownian noise. The parameters of interest are the jump beta coefficients which measure the influence of the market jumps on the stock returns, and are latent components. For this purpose, at first we use the Variance Gamma (VG) distribution which is frequently used in modeling financial time series and leads to the revelation of the hidden market jumps' distributions. Then, our method is based on the central moments of the stock returns for estimating the parameters of the model. It is proved that the proposed method provides always a solution in terms of the jump beta coefficients. We thus achieve a semi-parametric fit to the empirical data. The methodology itself serves as a criterion to test the fit of any sets of parameters to the empirical returns. The analysis is applied to NASDAQ and Google returns during the 2006–2008 period.     

When is n large enough? Looking for the right sample size to estimate proportions

The central limit theorem indicates that when the sample size goes to infinite, the sampling distribution of means tends to follow a normal distribution; it is the basis for the most usual confidence interval and sample size formulas. This study analyzes what sample size is large enough to assume that the distribution of the estimator of a proportion follows a Normal distribution. Also, we propose the use of a correction factor in sample size formulas to ensure a confidence level even when the central limit theorem does not apply for these distributions.     

中国货币当局资产负债表结构与货币政策调控方式转变

货币当局资产负债表是分析央行行为与货币政策执行情况的一个重要报表。我国货币当局资产负债表科目随着经济金融结构的演变经历了多次调整,本文梳理了我国货币当局资产负债表结构及其演变过程,重新编制1999-2018年的年度可比货币当局资产负债表,通过解析各科目余额及其结构的动态变化特征,揭示统计数据背后的经济逻辑与政策实践、以及重要资产负债科目间的勾稽关系。研究发现：外汇占款和对其他存款性公司的债权是我国货币当局投放基础货币的主要渠道。过去20年中,两种渠道此消彼长反映出我国基础货币投放方式和货币政策调控方式的两次重要转变与创新。在外汇占款大幅增长时期,货币当局曾通过频繁提高法定存款准备金率和发行央行票据回笼过剩流动性。随着国际收支顺差收窄和国内经济由高速增长向高质量发展转变,公开市场操作和创新型再贷款工具将成为货币当局主动投放基础货币的重要渠道。     

基于随机p-鲁棒优化的国家血液战略储备库选址-库存模型

以往的救灾实践对建立国家血液战略储备体系提出了迫切要求。国家血液战略储备库的建设问题亟待解决。由于血液产品特性以及应急血液保障特性的存在,使得国家血液战略储备库的选址决策具有一定的复杂性。本文将问题定位为选址-库存问题。首先,以应急条件下血液保障及时度最高为目标,构建了一个不确定环境下考虑多情景、多血型、多阶段、带提前期、有容量限制、日常随机需求、有预算约束及协同定位的国家血液战略储备库选址-库存模型。同时,为了规避应急条件下的不确定风险,进一步构建了国家血液战略储备库选址-库存问题的随机p-鲁棒优化模型。该模型为离散非线性混合整数规划模型,难以快速精确求解。故基于模型性质,设计了相应的遗传算法。最后,设计了两组算例验证模型与算法的有效性。其中,第1组算例基于我国大陆地区31个省级血液中心与省级行政区的数据,并根据不同预算值给出6个算例,得到了国家血液战略储备库的选址-库存决策方案。第2组算例为6个不同规模的模拟算例,用来测试不同规模下的算法性能。算例结果表明：遗传算法的性能更好;鲁棒解与确定性模型最优值相差不大（最大差距≤1.08%）,可降低不确定性导致的风险。实践中,可对本文所建模型稍作改进,应用于具有类似特征的易腐品（药品、粮食等）应急物资储备库选址-库存决策。     

Uneven and combined development and sub-imperialism: the internationalization of Brazilian capital

This paper examines the political-economic outgrowth of Brazilian capitalism in the global south after the outset of the global financial crisis. In analysing the public-sector finance policy of the Workers’ Party (PT) during the crisis, I argue that a structuration of investment was established. Utilizing theoretical premises of uneven and combined development and sub-imperialism, this paper traces the motions of the industrial financing processes that perpetuate Brazilian capitalism outside of the boundaries of the nation-state to shed light on the relationship between ‘emergent’ economies, their state structures, and the developing world. I argue that such structures represent a policy to accelerate capital accumulation abroad.     

中央苏区时期毛泽东关于关心群众生活的重要论述及实践探析

毛泽东基于中央苏区各方面资源受局限的实际情况,从巩固新生苏维埃政权和提升群众生活水平出发,提出必须关心群众生活。毛泽东以群众组织起来为中心脉络,把建立具有集体经济性质的合作社作为制度前提,通过建立新的金融制度、开展反剥削的商业斗争和开办专业技术学校,全面实践关心群众生活的系列论述。当下,应当充分吸收毛泽东关心群众生活重要论述的精髓,坚持以人民为中心的发展理念,提升人民的获得感、幸福感和安全感,发挥人民群众的劳动创造力。