试论新词的可接受度

新词可接受度是语言使用主体对新词理解度、使用度及理解、运用具体方式的综合值,新词从完全不被理解到进入心理词库,且能被自由提取至语境构成一个连续统性质的梯级序列。影响新词可接受度的主要因素包括:语言使用主体、语言客体、语言客体语境和主客体共同所处的社会文化语境。     

A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

Social Change and Social Policy in Japan

This paper aims to present and discuss social change and social policy in Japan after the mid-20th century from a sociological viewpoint. Japanese social change and social policy from the mid-20th century onward can be categorized into three models in chronological order: escape from mass poverty by means of industrialization, improvement of the social security system to establish a welfare state, and parallel progress of aspiration for a welfare society and workfare. Defined concretely, these are (1) the period that established and improved social security, which started immediately after the end of World War II and ended in 1973, when Japan began to suffer from low growth after enjoying high growth; (2) the period in which finance for social security was adjusted, halfway through which the country experienced a bubble economy; and (3) the period after the 1990s, in which the structural reform of social security went hand-in-hand with labor policy and the advent of globalization. In each of the three periods, the direction of social policy was affected by factors that caused changes in such areas as industrial structure (the decline of agriculture), demographic structure (an aging society), and family structure and work pattern (the growing trend of nuclear families, single-person households, and irregular employment). In Japan, life security now attracts increasing attention, and employment security rather than social security has been the central issue. As it is greatly affected by globalization, employment security grows less conspicuous and makes the vulnerability of social security grow more conspicuous. Social policy has the potential to become an area with which to struggle for national integration and fissures between social groups.     

应对人民币汇率升值压力探讨——基于《易经》谦卦视角

中国对外贸易中存在着巨额贸易顺差,欧美各国要求人民币升值的呼声越来越大,人民币汇率不断上扬。运用《易经》的谦卦,结合中国的实际情况,对人民币升值问题进行分析可知,中国经济目前处于第二爻的阶段,即发展的初级阶段,人民币升值没有被低估。面对人民币升值压力,中国政府可以采用以下措施减少人民币升值带来的负面影响:改善对外贸易结构,改善外汇市场机制,完善汇率制度,提高高能耗低附加值产业及环境污染产业的贷款利率,加大宣传力度,增加外贸企业的外汇风险意识。     

市民化率及农业转移人口市民化公共成本测度

农业转移人口市民化,是新型城镇化不可回避、首当其冲的任务。以福建为例,旨在理清农业转移人口市民化的基本情况,测度市民化率,反映真实城镇化水平;测算市民化公共成本,确定城镇化所需资金量,从成本视角阐释农业转移人口市民化进展缓慢最本质的症结;提出符合实际的政策措施。     

购买力平价视角下的人民币汇率研究

随着经济全球化的发展,汇率波动问题越来越成为国内外学者关注的焦点。因此,加强人民币汇率内在机理的深入研究对抑制人民币汇率波动具有重要的理论和实践意义。依据三变量购买力平价模型,选取2005年8月至2014年6月的最新月度数据对人民币兑美元汇率、中国生产者价格指数和美国生产者价格指数进行了协整分析。研究发现：人民币兑美元汇率、中国生产者价格指数和美国生产者价格指数之间存在长期的协整关系和短期动态调整机制。最后,从加快市场改革、稳定物价和完善汇率制度等几个方面为我国宏观政策的制定提出了建议。     

森林旅游业投资利率确定研究

通过对森林旅游业投资利率的本质分析,探讨了森林旅游业投资利率选取的基本原则和影响因素。根据资金时间价值的基本原理与森林旅游业实际统计数据,提出了我国目前森林旅游业投资利率的具体范围和操作建议,为森林旅游投资的科学决策提供了参考依据。     

金融自由化浪潮下我国金融业发展对策

20世纪70年代以来,国际金融自由化的进程明显加快,金融工具不断创新,金融信息化蓬勃发展.利率市场化、放松金融管制、开放国内资本市场、加强对全球金融的统一监管成为大势所趋.文章通过国际金融自由化进程中一些规律性经验的总结及我国金融改革历程的回顾,对我国金融市场在利率、外汇及证券等业务的开放提出了建议.     

股指期货最优套期保值与绩效评价——基于分位数回归的实证研究

针对股指期货套期保值的问题,利用分位数回归方法对沪深300指数中权重占前两位的股票的最优套期保值比率进行了实证测算和绩效评价,实证结果表明：运用分位数回归计算得到的最优套期保值比率都大于0.99,在不同分位点上,期货收益对现货收益的影响大小及变动情况存在明显差异。     

中国持美国国债的利息收入估算：２０００～２０１１

根据中美两国官方数据,估算2000年以来的十余年中国持有的美国国债,其分别不计复利和计年复利的名义利息收入;扣除通货膨胀因素和汇率因素后的实际利息收入;与投资于股票、黄金等相比较,投资回报率的大小等。并相应思考了两个问题:如何看待中美经济关系的相互重要性、如何完善中国外汇储备管理的体制和方式?