Estimation of critical points in the mixture inverse Gaussian model

The maximum likelihood estimation for the critical points of the failure rate and the mean residual life function are presented in the case of mixture inverse Gaussian model. Several important data sets are analyzed from this point of view. For each of the data sets, Bootstrapping is used to construct confidence intervals of the critical points.     

金融网络的模型和优化

金融网络就是经济系统中资金循环,文献[1-8]研究了金融网络的模型。本文则在文献[1-8]金融网络模型的基础之上,建立了资产、负债、适度规模和价格的改进模型。这一改进模型考虑了所有经济部门的金融工具的风险、金融网络的经济资源约束、资产和负债的会计帐户约束等问题。模型的改进适用于应用。文章采用了进化规划算法,并依此进行仿真实验。     

二维GPSJ分布类及其在保险中的应用

本文给出的二维GPSJ分布类(即GPSJ2)在保险领域应用范围较广,如由机动车辆保险由财产损失索赔次数和人身伤亡索赔次数所组成的模型、超额再保险中的由自留保单数和分出报单数所组成的二维模型等。本文在GPSJ1类基础上研究二维GPSJ类,本文给出了此分布类的定义、背景意义、概率计算的递推公式,同时还对各参数的最大似然估计值的求解过程进行了分析。本文最后将这一模型应用于一组机动车辆赔付次数数据,考虑了由财产损失索赔次数、人身伤亡索赔次数组成的二维模型,拟合效果令人满意。     

中国特色“双一流”大学建设的逻辑根据与路径选择

中国特色"双一流"大学建设有必要从学理上深入分析扎根中国大地办学的逻辑根据,从而找到有效的建设路径。为此,笔者对国外大学崛起成为世界一流大学的历史规律进行了考察,认为传承优秀民族文化是建设中国特色"双一流"大学的深层基因,回应国家战略是建设中国特色"双一流"大学的内在需求,融入民族复兴"中国梦"是建设世界一流大学的神圣使命,构建中国特色学科体系是建设"双一流"大学的强力支撑。因此,扎根中国大地建设中国特色"双一流"大学的路径选择应当是：把"立德树人"作为大学改革发展的根本任务,把传承创新民族文化作为大学改革发展的精神内核,把服务国家战略需求作为大学改革发展的根本追求,把办好人民满意的教育作为大学改革发展的自觉目标,把一流学科和一流师资建设作为大学改革发展的重要抓手。     

我国中等收入群体比重及其特征

中等收入群体的界定标准、规模和特征一直是学术界关注的焦点。在回顾和评述现有各种界定标准的基础上,建议采用全球所有国家收入中位数的67%~200%作为定义我国中等收入群体的上下限。研究发现,近些年我国中等收入群体比重在逐渐提高,从2002年的10%上升到2016年的28.9%,这主要源于我国居民整体收入水平的提高而不是收入分配格局的变化。要扩大我国中等收入群体比重,保持中高速增长至关重要,政策的重点是提“低”而不是限“高”,同时要防范现有的中等收入群体跌落为低收入群体。中等收入群体主要分布在城市地区,收入来源主要是工资性收入,储蓄率偏高,受教育水平明显高于低收入者和贫困人口。中等收入群体的标准下限附近分布着规模客观的低收入者,他们是扩大中等收入者比重的潜在来源,应是政策瞄准的主要对象。     

高职班主任队伍建设现状与对策

在广泛调研的基础上,对高职班主任队伍建设现状进行了分析,认为目前高职班主任队伍结构整体趋向合理、制度基本健全,但班主任工作职责不够明确,理论素养尚显不足,激励机制亟待完善。针对这些制约班主任工作开展的瓶颈因素,必须采取相应对策。     

A growth mixture Tobit model: application to AIDS studies

This paper presents an alternative analysis approach to modeling data where a lower detection limit (LOD) and unobserved population heterogeneity exist in a longitudinal data set. Longitudinal data on viral loads in HIV/AIDS studies, for instance, show strong positive skewness and left-censoring. Normalizing such data using a logarithmic transformation seems to be unsuccessful. An alternative to such a transformation is to use a finite mixture model which is suitable for analyzing data which have skewed or multi-modal distributions. There is little work done to simultaneously take into account these features of longitudinal data. This paper develops a growth mixture Tobit model that deals with a LOD and heterogeneity among growth trajectories. The proposed methods are illustrated using simulated and real data from an AIDS clinical study.     

A new stratified three-stage unrelated randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute based on the Poisson distribution

This article suggests an efficient method of estimating a rare sensitive attribute which is assumed following Poisson distribution by using three-stage unrelated randomized response model instead of the Land et al. model (2011 Land, M., S. Singh, and S. A. Sedory. 2011. Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute using poisson distribution. Statistics 46 (3):351–60. doi:10.1080/02331888.2010.524300.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) when the population consists of some different sized clusters and clusters selected by probability proportional to size(:pps) sampling. A rare sensitive parameter is estimated by using pps sampling and equal probability two-stage sampling when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.

We extend this method to the case of stratified population by applying stratified pps sampling and stratified equal probability two-stage sampling. An empirical study is carried out to show the efficiency of the two proposed methods when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.     

从学理到实践:爱国主义定义的结构性解析

如何界定爱国主义这一定义一直是学术界讨论的问题。《〈中共中央宣传部教育部关于进一步加强和改进高等学校思想政治理论课的意见〉实施方案》实施后,《思想道德修养与法律基础》教材不再运用列宁关于爱国主义的定义,而用了一个新的定义。科学地理解爱国主义不仅是爱国主义本质的内在要求,而且是理性爱国主义教育的前提。从“非人民群众”的爱国情感、“祖国”与“国家”的关系、爱国主义“理性”与“非理性”的关系三个角度进行探讨,认为社会主义国家应倡导理性爱国主义。     

Selecting the normal population with the smallest variance: A restricted subset selection rule

Consider k( ? 2) normal populations whose means are all known or unknown and whose variances are unknown. Let σ²_[1] ? ??? ? σ_[k]² denote the ordered variances. Our goal is to select a non empty subset of the k populations whose size is at most m(1 ? m ? k ? 1) so that the population associated with the smallest variance (called the best population) is included in the selected subset with a guaranteed minimum probability P* whenever σ²_[2]/σ_[1]² ? δ* > 1, where P* and δ* are specified in advance of the experiment. Based on samples of size n from each of the populations, we propose and investigate a procedure called R_BCP. We also derive some asymptotic results for our procedure. Some comparisons with an earlier available procedure are presented in terms of the average subset sizes for selected slippage configurations based on simulations. The results are illustrated by an example.