Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

非负权最短路问题的一种简便算法

提出了非负权最短路问题的一种新算法。与有名的Ｄｉｊｋｓｔｒａ算法相比，这种算法计算简便、容易理解、易于编程。     

基于遗传算法的有柔性路径的动态调度问题研究

建立了有柔性路径的FMS动态调度问题的模型．采用离线重调度的方法，提出一种结合离线重调度两种生成调度方式的方法来阐述FMS的有柔性路径动态调度问题．最后给出了该问题的遗传算法解决方法和计算示例．     

Semi-parametric estimation of ROC curves based on binomial regression modelling

This paper presents a method of estimating a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve when the underlying diagnostic variable X is continuous and fully observed. The new method is based on modelling the probability of response given X , rather than the distribution of X given response. The method offers advantages in modelling flexibility and computational simplicity. The resulting ROC curve estimates are semi-parametric and can, in principle, take an infinite variety of shapes. Moreover, model selection can be based on standard methods within the binomial regression framework. Statistical accuracy of the curve estimate is provided by a simply implemented bootstrap approach.     

基于定位辅助按需拓扑维护的超宽带自组网路由算法

提出了一种基于定位辅助按需拓扑维护的超宽带自组网路由算法,该算法利用超宽带技术精确定位信息所获得的网络拓扑信息和路由信息进行分组转发,路由维护阶段在定位信息辅助下采用按需方式进行断链路由的修复和拓扑维护,通过基于位置信息的按需路由发现和限制路由查找范围,以及定位信息和网络拓扑信息的及时更新,在降低协议开销的同时保证了算法的有效性。仿真表明,该算法在分组丢失率、平均端到端时延和路由附加开销等方面具有良好性能,其优良的分布式控制特征能适应超宽带自组网的动态环境。     

Improving Convergence of the HastingsMetropolis Algorithm with an Adaptive Proposal

The HastingsMetropolis algorithm is a general MCMC method for sampling from a density known up to a constant. Geometric convergence of this algorithm has been proved under conditions relative to the instrumental (or proposal) distribution. We present an inhomogeneous HastingsMetropolis algorithm for which the proposal density approximates the target density, as the number of iterations increases. The proposal density at the n th step is a non-parametric estimate of the density of the algorithm, and uses an increasing number of i.i.d. copies of the Markov chain. The resulting algorithm converges (in n ) geometrically faster than a HastingsMetropolis algorithm with any fixed proposal distribution. The case of a strictly positive density with compact support is presented first, then an extension to more general densities is given. We conclude by proposing a practical way of implementation for the algorithm, and illustrate it over simulated examples.     

Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

基于需求不确定性的供应链库存控制研究

通过建立需求不确定性环境下供应链成员的独立存货成本模型,运用模拟退火法对该模型进行52周的仿真,求解存货最佳订购数量与最佳再订购点,从而比较出不同存货控制策略的供应链存货总成本及订单满足率的差异。     

人格结构的行为归类假设与中国人人格的文化意义

根据对中西方人格概念的词源和内涵的分析,人格内容可划分为四个不同层次,包括个体的外显行为、内心体验、动机和神经生理基础等四个方面,不同层次之间存在密切的交互关系;文化对人格的不同内容都会产生一定的影响,但影响的程度存在差异.由于对行为含义观察角度的不同造成了中西方人格结构的差异,人格结构的特点也是对文化意义的直接反映.以后的研究应关注文化对人格、行为和适应之间关系的影响.