大学新生学习生活的善治模式与实践路径

在分析大学新生学习生活的理论内涵基础上,研究大学新生学习生活善治模式与实践路径。研究认为,大学新生学习生活治理是多元主体参与的共同治理,实现大学新生学习生活的善治,即良好的大学新生学习生活治理,并呈现出创新、参与度、开放度、共享度、制度化、效能等基本特征;要用“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”五大发展理念引领治理方向,塑造契约精神,完善治理制度体系和权力体系,搭建“元治理”共同体和协商民主的对话平台。     

经济预警指数、国房景气指数与CPI指数波动溢出实证分析——基于三元VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型

建立三元VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型对中国经济预警指数、国房景气指数和CPI指数间的ARCH型和GARCH型波动溢出进行了分析,发现经济预警指数和国房景气指数当期波动均受到了自身滞后残差平方与滞后波动的显著影响,但CPI指数波动不存在ARCH和GARCH效应。CPI指数对经济预警指数和国房景气指数有显著的波动溢出作用,经济预警指数对国房景气指数存在波动溢出作用。因此,国家制定宏观经济政策时应避免分割控制模式,积极建立动态制度框架和信息沟通机制以抵御风险。     

Forum 4: the environmental privilege of borders in the anthropocene

ABSTRACT

Mobility can indicate a powerful or privileged relationship with one’s environment. The ability to exercise mobility or not (of oneself or others) is an exertion of power that demarcates where particular people belong and under what kind of environmental conditions. This essay focuses on the significance of borders in creating environmental privilege in the Anthropocene. Environmental privilege is accrued through the exercise of economic, political, and cultural power that enables the construction of exclusive environmental amenities such as clean air and water, open space, and safe neighborhoods. For years, environmental justice scholars have revealed the burdens and oppressive conditions associated with environmental inequality, but few studies consider the flipside of that reality. We argue that environmental privileges enjoyed by some rest upon the manipulation of the mobility of others – human and nonhuman. We believe border making will come under greater pressure as the effects of climate change increase, and the volume of resources required to maintain exclusive spaces intensifies. Continued mass migration will bring heightened anxieties about national identity and calls for greater border enforcement, despite the reality that borders – both literal and figurative – consistently fail to alleviate migratory pressures while exacerbating the effects of climate change and environmental injustice. Our research shows that greater ecological instability increases efforts to create privatized places as pristine spaces untouched by global turmoil, thereby reinforcing those social forces that produce environmental injustices in the first place.     

天气预报产品服务理念的提升途径——以中央气象台《天气公报》为例

天气预报产品的制作必须在服务理念的指引下进行。天气预报产品的服务理念不同于专门的气象服务产品的服务理念。对于天气预报产品来说,服务并不靠附加单独的具体化的提示和建议来实现,其服务理念要着眼于天气、着手于预报,增加对天气的分析、判断和评估。以国家级天气预报产品《天气公报》为例,天气预报类产品存在服务功能不足的缺陷。因此,在描述介绍未来天气的同时,应加大分析解读的比重,将静态描述与动态分析相结合,定量描述与定性分析相结合,独立描述与关联分析相结合,以便强化服务功能,提升服务能力。     

新媒体时代下“电视人”的“不变”与“变”

从传播学领域出发,简短论述“电视人”概念的历史沿革与发展,针对新媒体时代网络传播的特点,着重探讨“电视人”概念的延续性和变化性,并据此对新时代下的“电视人”现象进行总结与反思。     

气候变化冷思考

气候变化事关每一个人,人们有权利听到“不同的声音”,以确保正确的应对气候变化的行动。气候是否在变暖？气候变冷说和气候不变论都是对气候变暖的质疑,科学界内部对气候变暖尚未形成完全一致的看法。气候稳定是否存在？人们试图实现的可能不是稳定的气候,而是人们所熟悉的气候。气候变化是自然的还是人为的？相对于自然界产生的二氧化碳等温室气体而言,人类产生的二氧化碳总量微不足道,把可能的气候变暖归咎于人类活动是武断的。人类活动总是消极的吗？只有将自然因素引起的气候变化与人类活动引起的气候变化进行对比研究,才能得出具有实质意义的结论。气候变暖一定是坏事吗？如果气候变化的收益远远超过损失,那么气候变化或许会是一件好事。是否一切负面问题都与气候变化有关？很多事件与全球气候变化趋势没有必然联系,气候变化与农业、公共健康和生物多样性没有直接关系。科学家、政治家和其他学者将各类负面事件归咎于气候变化,其原因很可能是为了实现气候寻租,谋取经济利益,争取国际发展权。神学家们特别关注气候变化问题,因为气候变化及其引发的危机使旧宗教与气候变化的新宗教结成了联盟,人们因排放温室气体而犯了“气候罪”,这是人类新的“原罪”。     

Personal Efficacy, the Information Environment, and Attitudes Toward Global Warming and Climate Change in the United States

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces—informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy—are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.     

Common Learning

Consider two agents who learn the value of an unknown parameter by observing a sequence of private signals. The signals are independent and identically distributed across time but not necessarily across agents. We show that when each agent's signal space is finite, the agents will commonly learn the value of the parameter, that is, that the true value of the parameter will become approximate common knowledge. The essential step in this argument is to express the expectation of one agent's signals, conditional on those of the other agent, in terms of a Markov chain. This allows us to invoke a contraction mapping principle ensuring that if one agent's signals are close to those expected under a particular value of the parameter, then that agent expects the other agent's signals to be even closer to those expected under the parameter value. In contrast, if the agents' observations come from a countably infinite signal space, then this contraction mapping property fails. We show by example that common learning can fail in this case.     

中国高新技术发展行动的成就及政策思考——基于“火炬计划”实施的测度分析

近年来,以“火炬计划”作为支柱,我国高新技术发展行动取得了一系列重要成就。高新区已成为高技术人才和管理人才、科技创新资源的重要集聚区,是先进制造业发展的重要基地;在特色产业基地建设方面,区域经济一体化态势明显,创新能力较强,其发展对周边经济具有明显的带动作用;一批高新技术人才茁壮成长,为现代制造业建设积累了重要的人力资本;若干具有国际竞争力的软件产业基地正式建成,软件产业外贸出口初具规模;科技企业孵化器通过创业中心、创业园以及国际孵化器网络组织的形式多样的相关活动,培育了一大批科创型中小企业,成为产业发展的重要后备力量。未来,以“火炬计划”为代表的高新技术发展规划的实施,要依托国家高新区和创新型产业集群,加快建成先进制造产业集聚区;要推动科技企业孵化器和生产力促进中心的发展,培育支持冠军企业和创新型企业;要支持国家大学科技园和科技型中小企业发展,服务于制造强国建设。     

产业集群创新能力增长机理的路径依赖

产业集群创新能力的演进过程具有明显的路径依赖特征,极易导致过度僵化和技术锁定。要确保产业集群持续的创新能力,必须转变其创新能力的增长路径。产业集群创新能力演变路径有两种主要形式——“状态依存型”路径依赖和“行为依存型”路径依赖,就如何培育产业集群的持续创新优势提出八项有针对性的建议。