北京高山植物气候室的建设构想

高山环境逐渐恶化,高山植物的保护日益受到关注。阐述了在北京地区建设高山植物气候室的重要意义和作用,介绍了目前国内外较为著名的同类展室。提出在北京地区建立高山植物气候室的实施方案、建设目的等内容,并初步规划了主要植物的引种、收集原则和范围。     

从碳排放权之争看我国在气候变化上的法律应对

应对由温室气体引起的气候变化问题已经成为人类面临的重大挑战。在碳排放权的争执中,发达国家强调环境权,发展中国家强调发展权,对此,双方应该承担共同但有区别的责任。我国应明确碳排放权的物权属性,构建我国碳排放交易机制,做好应对碳关税政策的准备,制订相关法律制度,倡导低碳生活。     

珠三角农业产业转型升级要素报酬变动趋势分析

通过佛山五区1992—2009年农业生产函数的估计,分析近20年来农业生产要素投入的变动规律和各要素的贡献占比,研究认为:农业要素报酬变动排序为:物质投入、科技进步、土地、劳动力;随时间变化科技进步贡献率的区域变化加大,要素投放的数量和质量变化都呈现"马太效应"。提出经济发达地区以巩固资本积累为前提大力提高农业科技投入,经济欠发达地区着力于发展报酬最高的物质要素投入实现经济增长的转型期对策。     

案件质量评估语境下的审判管理改革——基于上诉发改率指标管理的实证分析

全国法院开展的案件质量评估,以及各地高、中级法院对下级法院开展的"绩效考核",是审判管理改革的重要探索。上诉案件发回重审改判率(简称上诉发改率)是案件质量评估中最重要的指标。基于"二审裁判结果是一审案件质量的直观反映"的评估原理,上诉发改率即成为评价一审法院案件质量的重要标准。通过调研分析发现二审发回重审和改判案件并非都系一审裁判错误所致,新证据、新事实、自由裁量事项、其他各种不可归咎于一审法院的原因等,都可能导致二审发回重审或改判。现有的案件质量评估机制未能合理区分二审改判和发回重审的具体原因,只能将二审发回重审和改判案件一律纳入计算,这样势必会影响以上诉发改率为依据的案件质量评估的准确性和科学性,相应地也必然会影响管理行为的有效性。破解这一实践难题的路径是构建案件质量评估数据区分与审核机制,即完善裁判机制与统计机制,建立审核机制与申辩机制,不断推进审判管理改革的完善与创新,使审判管理行为更具科学性和实效性。     

浅析印度应对气候变化的政策

作为世界第四大温室气体排放实体和主要的发展中国家,印度始终在气候变化问题上采取一种超脱于主流的立场,对发达国家要求其接受约束性排放限制嗤之以鼻。许多发达国家纷纷指责和抨击印度,称其拒绝承担温室气体主要排放国的应尽责任,在达成具有约束力的最终减排协议上设置障碍,以及反对以市场机制实现技术和资金支持的国际努力等。本文通过分析印度应对气候变化的政策,从气候变化对印度的影响、印度在气候变化问题上的原则、国家政策的实施等方面入手,探究印度坚持强硬态度的根源,寻找中印在该领域展开深入合作的可能。     

世界气候的国际政治学分析

文章通过对气候政治的生成原理考察得出,气的剧烈变化尤其是温度的变化,使得由气而生成的气候成为当下国际政治的首要议题,然后通过考察气候政治的历史,系统地论述了气候跟国际政治的紧密联系。最后,通过对气候进行爱因斯坦式的哲学玄思,试图从哲学上为各国政要、国际组织、专家学者、新闻媒体及一切有研究兴趣的同僚提供思想上的启示和路径,并明确指出,如果人类真的要直面气候的话,要面对的必然是气候对人类全方位的影响,而不只是面对气候变暖对人类的影响。     

2012年后CDM走势及其对中国的影响

尽管中国已经成为CDM项目最大的受益国,但是国际社会对CDM的运行及作用存在诸多质疑。与此同时,随着第一个京都承诺期期满的临近,国际社会展开了2012年后气候协议的协商和谈判,其中也针对CDM进行了若干调整。根据现有的发展状况,CDM可能具有在2012年后加以延续、重新定位以及进一步完善的发展趋势。该发展趋势一方面会完善其在中国的发展;另一方面也会使CDM市场竞争更加激烈。同时,从长远来看,CDM对促进中国可持续发展具有局限性。     

Best Nonparametric Bounds on Demand Responses

This paper uses revealed preference inequalities to provide the tightest possible (best) nonparametric bounds on predicted consumer responses to price changes using consumer‐level data over a finite set of relative price changes. These responses are allowed to vary nonparametrically across the income distribution. This is achieved by combining the theory of revealed preference with the semiparametric estimation of consumer expansion paths (Engel curves). We label these expansion path based bounds on demand responses as E‐bounds. Deviations from revealed preference restrictions are measured by preference perturbations which are shown to usefully characterize taste change and to provide a stochastic environment within which violations of revealed preference inequalities can be assessed.     

A Method for Computing the Fraction of Attributable Risk Related to Climate Damages

The recent decision of the U.S. Supreme Court on the regulation of CO₂ emissions from new motor vehicles^{( 1 )} shows the need for a robust methodology to evaluate the fraction of attributable risk from such emissions. The methodology must enable decisionmakers to reach practically relevant conclusions on the basis of expert assessments the decisionmakers see as an expression of research in progress, rather than as knowledge consolidated beyond any reasonable doubt.^{( 2,3,4 )} This article presents such a methodology and demonstrates its use for the Alpine heat wave of 2003. In a Bayesian setting, different expert assessments on temperature trends and volatility can be formalized as probability distributions, with initial weights (priors) attached to them. By Bayesian learning, these weights can be adjusted in the light of data. The fraction of heat wave risk attributable to anthropogenic climate change can then be computed from the posterior distribution. We show that very different priors consistently lead to the result that anthropogenic climate change has contributed more than 90% to the probability of the Alpine summer heat wave in 2003. The present method can be extended to a wide range of applications where conclusions must be drawn from divergent assessments under uncertainty.     

The Challenges of Creating Critically Reflective Groups

In this article the author reflects on her experiences in establishing an enabling climate in critically reflective groups. The author also addresses some particular challenges for educators and participants who are firmly committed to social justice values. The author outlines some embedded ways of thinking about how we make knowledge and how we make a sense of ourselves that can inhibit critical reflection. The author pinpoints five specific internalised cultures about “the expert,” “the manager,” “the evangelist,” “the victim,” and “the technician.” From an awareness of these, the author then suggests an orientation for enabling critical reflection based on the notion of “co-researching.”