世界气候的国际政治学分析

文章通过对气候政治的生成原理考察得出,气的剧烈变化尤其是温度的变化,使得由气而生成的气候成为当下国际政治的首要议题,然后通过考察气候政治的历史,系统地论述了气候跟国际政治的紧密联系。最后,通过对气候进行爱因斯坦式的哲学玄思,试图从哲学上为各国政要、国际组织、专家学者、新闻媒体及一切有研究兴趣的同僚提供思想上的启示和路径,并明确指出,如果人类真的要直面气候的话,要面对的必然是气候对人类全方位的影响,而不只是面对气候变暖对人类的影响。     

2012年后CDM走势及其对中国的影响

尽管中国已经成为CDM项目最大的受益国,但是国际社会对CDM的运行及作用存在诸多质疑。与此同时,随着第一个京都承诺期期满的临近,国际社会展开了2012年后气候协议的协商和谈判,其中也针对CDM进行了若干调整。根据现有的发展状况,CDM可能具有在2012年后加以延续、重新定位以及进一步完善的发展趋势。该发展趋势一方面会完善其在中国的发展;另一方面也会使CDM市场竞争更加激烈。同时,从长远来看,CDM对促进中国可持续发展具有局限性。     

Best Nonparametric Bounds on Demand Responses

This paper uses revealed preference inequalities to provide the tightest possible (best) nonparametric bounds on predicted consumer responses to price changes using consumer‐level data over a finite set of relative price changes. These responses are allowed to vary nonparametrically across the income distribution. This is achieved by combining the theory of revealed preference with the semiparametric estimation of consumer expansion paths (Engel curves). We label these expansion path based bounds on demand responses as E‐bounds. Deviations from revealed preference restrictions are measured by preference perturbations which are shown to usefully characterize taste change and to provide a stochastic environment within which violations of revealed preference inequalities can be assessed.     

A Method for Computing the Fraction of Attributable Risk Related to Climate Damages

The recent decision of the U.S. Supreme Court on the regulation of CO₂ emissions from new motor vehicles^{( 1 )} shows the need for a robust methodology to evaluate the fraction of attributable risk from such emissions. The methodology must enable decisionmakers to reach practically relevant conclusions on the basis of expert assessments the decisionmakers see as an expression of research in progress, rather than as knowledge consolidated beyond any reasonable doubt.^{( 2,3,4 )} This article presents such a methodology and demonstrates its use for the Alpine heat wave of 2003. In a Bayesian setting, different expert assessments on temperature trends and volatility can be formalized as probability distributions, with initial weights (priors) attached to them. By Bayesian learning, these weights can be adjusted in the light of data. The fraction of heat wave risk attributable to anthropogenic climate change can then be computed from the posterior distribution. We show that very different priors consistently lead to the result that anthropogenic climate change has contributed more than 90% to the probability of the Alpine summer heat wave in 2003. The present method can be extended to a wide range of applications where conclusions must be drawn from divergent assessments under uncertainty.     

The Challenges of Creating Critically Reflective Groups

In this article the author reflects on her experiences in establishing an enabling climate in critically reflective groups. The author also addresses some particular challenges for educators and participants who are firmly committed to social justice values. The author outlines some embedded ways of thinking about how we make knowledge and how we make a sense of ourselves that can inhibit critical reflection. The author pinpoints five specific internalised cultures about “the expert,” “the manager,” “the evangelist,” “the victim,” and “the technician.” From an awareness of these, the author then suggests an orientation for enabling critical reflection based on the notion of “co-researching.”     

讨论、辩论与协商民主：国际气候政策制定中的工具选择

从逻辑理性和协商民主的双重角度看,讨论与辩论具有不同的政策工具意义,在特定的情形下,政策辩论往往成为更自然、更方便的选择。20年来,国际气候政策制定过程具有突出的政策辩论特征,从民主理论、逻辑与现实性角度来看,政策辩论应该成为国际气候政策制定的重要工具选择,改善国际气候政策辩论制度势在必行。从当前实践需要看,政策讨论与政策辩论在促进公正而有效的国际气候政策制定,构建全球政治文明的经典样本与范例,提供政策制定过程辩论工具选择的例证与经验等方面具有重要的意义。     

“他者”与气候变化问题伦理学的基础

全球气候变化问题在各种政治较量和利益权衡中正逐步遮蔽其深层次伦理关切,导致了各种决策、理论的功利性和盲目性。作为＂他者＂的伦理关系始终没有出现。梳理西方近代以来主体性哲学传统和现代＂他者＂思想,将为理解气候变化问题产生的思想渊源,探讨当今气候变化问题涉及的伦理学问题提供基本线索。     

气候变化与国家利益博弈的哲学思考

当前,气候变化渐趋引起国际社会的重点关注,并成为国家利益博弈的政治、经济焦点之一。各国以追求利益最大化为目标,利益共享成为各国达成合作协议的基础和底线,也是国际立法操作性的砝码。若综合而前瞻性地看,气候问题的继续升级将打破国家间政治冲突之壁垒,世界各NA~-Jk-会更大程度地力促合作,趋向于“大同”治理。     

德班世界气候大会成果解读与中国未来面临的挑战

德班世界气候会议通过了一系列决定,主要内容有四项：议定书第二承诺期发达国家减排义务的决定、在公约下长期合作行动计划的一揽子工作计划的决定、启动绿色气候基金的决定,以及关于启动谈判所有国家2020年后减排温室气体法律框架的决定,即＂德班增强行动平台＂。总体上看,德班会议的成果一定程度上均衡地照顾了各方的利益和诉求,发展中国家尤其是中国今后将面临承担某种程度的约束性温室气体限排义务。这将有助于促进我国建立资源节约型、环境友好型社会,实现可持续发展目标,同时不可避免的带来一定的负面影响。减排温室气体要求在科学研究方面做出相应的部署。     

超越国家利己主义：气候变化与生态价值观

在气候变化问题上,各主权国家过多关心国家利益,极少关注相关的道德义务,造成了利益与道德严重失衡的现象。事实证明,主权国家之间缺乏道德基础的利益纷争只会使气候变化问题更加难以解决,必须促进各主权国家形成基本的道德共识,世界气候大会达成的气候变化协议才会得到自觉而有效的实施。就目前的国际社会而言,道德共识的形成需要超越国家利己主义,需要强有力的全球政府。生态价值观的培育与普及有利于超越国家利己主义。